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CFB YTD 41-31 +7.3 units
3* 1-0 +3.0 units
2* 4-5 -3.0 units
1* 36-26 +7.3 units
CFB/NFL Combined 56-44 +9.7 units
3* 1-0 +3.0 units
2* 7-6 +0.8 units
1* 48-38 +5.9 units
I went 1-1 Friday and am 2-1 so far this week in CFB as I won Fri on Tulsa but lost with Arkansas as I underestimated what a Dick their QB is, literally. I've now hit six of my last seven college plays.
All three of the following games were circled by me several weeks ago as potential for my game of the year. I'm actually going instead with a game next Saturday, presuming everything works out. But I absolutely love all three of these plays. As you can see from my posted record, most of my plays are only 1* so having an entire card of top plays is unusual for me.
All three of these plays were posted earlier in the week at the lines below (the ones I bet). While all three lines have moved, I still like all of the plays at current odds.
3* UTEP -11
This is my favorite play of the year, so far. Jordan Palmer holds every UTEP passing record and wraps up his career at home against one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Memphis has lost nine in a row but here's the key: the last three were ALL at home including a heartbreaker last week against the league's best team. They will not be motivated to end the season on the road. UTEP had high hopes this year that have fizzled but can still get to.500 with a win. UTEP will pass on 85 percent of its plays and could score 50 here. One caution is this week's bizarro stat: UTEP has lost its regular season finale an unbelievable 17 years in a row. Yikes.
2* Nevada +3
I realize this is an unpopular pick but it falls into my favorite category: a better team catching points at home. Yes, I think Nevada is flat out better than Boise. Every single one of their conference wins was an annihilation and their only conference loss was at Hawaii where the Rainbows have been unstoppable. Even in that game, Nevada had a chance to win late in the game. Boise has a first year head coach while Nevada's Ault is already in the Hall of Fame. Nevada has outscored its last three opponents 129-7! This is a very hot team playing its biggest game ever. Boise almost lost on the road to San Jose State and Nevada is 14 points better than that team.
2* Hawaii -17
This would have been my GOY if the line hadn't been so high (by power ratings, Hawaii should only be favored by 7). Even at the big number, everything points to Hawaii. Purdue's defense is not very good and gave up 505 yards last week to a weak Indiana team. Purdue accepted its bowl bid on Tuesday and has nothing to play for. Purdue's coach has been whining all week that this game was forced on him. Hawaii has an unbelievable offense. If you've seen them play (as opposed to just reading the stats), you'd know what I mean. I expect Purdue to play well in the first half and wilt in the second half. Purdue's Big 10 record is misleading as the league was very weak after the top three teams. I think the top three WAC teams all would have finished about fourth in the Big 10. Hawaii is trying to prove something to the country and is highly motivated. They've scored an astonishing 363 points their last six games. They cannot be stopped.
3* 1-0 +3.0 units
2* 4-5 -3.0 units
1* 36-26 +7.3 units
CFB/NFL Combined 56-44 +9.7 units
3* 1-0 +3.0 units
2* 7-6 +0.8 units
1* 48-38 +5.9 units
I went 1-1 Friday and am 2-1 so far this week in CFB as I won Fri on Tulsa but lost with Arkansas as I underestimated what a Dick their QB is, literally. I've now hit six of my last seven college plays.
All three of the following games were circled by me several weeks ago as potential for my game of the year. I'm actually going instead with a game next Saturday, presuming everything works out. But I absolutely love all three of these plays. As you can see from my posted record, most of my plays are only 1* so having an entire card of top plays is unusual for me.
All three of these plays were posted earlier in the week at the lines below (the ones I bet). While all three lines have moved, I still like all of the plays at current odds.
3* UTEP -11
This is my favorite play of the year, so far. Jordan Palmer holds every UTEP passing record and wraps up his career at home against one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Memphis has lost nine in a row but here's the key: the last three were ALL at home including a heartbreaker last week against the league's best team. They will not be motivated to end the season on the road. UTEP had high hopes this year that have fizzled but can still get to.500 with a win. UTEP will pass on 85 percent of its plays and could score 50 here. One caution is this week's bizarro stat: UTEP has lost its regular season finale an unbelievable 17 years in a row. Yikes.
2* Nevada +3
I realize this is an unpopular pick but it falls into my favorite category: a better team catching points at home. Yes, I think Nevada is flat out better than Boise. Every single one of their conference wins was an annihilation and their only conference loss was at Hawaii where the Rainbows have been unstoppable. Even in that game, Nevada had a chance to win late in the game. Boise has a first year head coach while Nevada's Ault is already in the Hall of Fame. Nevada has outscored its last three opponents 129-7! This is a very hot team playing its biggest game ever. Boise almost lost on the road to San Jose State and Nevada is 14 points better than that team.
2* Hawaii -17
This would have been my GOY if the line hadn't been so high (by power ratings, Hawaii should only be favored by 7). Even at the big number, everything points to Hawaii. Purdue's defense is not very good and gave up 505 yards last week to a weak Indiana team. Purdue accepted its bowl bid on Tuesday and has nothing to play for. Purdue's coach has been whining all week that this game was forced on him. Hawaii has an unbelievable offense. If you've seen them play (as opposed to just reading the stats), you'd know what I mean. I expect Purdue to play well in the first half and wilt in the second half. Purdue's Big 10 record is misleading as the league was very weak after the top three teams. I think the top three WAC teams all would have finished about fourth in the Big 10. Hawaii is trying to prove something to the country and is highly motivated. They've scored an astonishing 363 points their last six games. They cannot be stopped.
It's always noon somewhere! 
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