Hey guys, quick question....

[Lil Re/Max]

i have been reading you guys for a while but never post, i just wanted some insight on a few trends, lines, etc.... i do homework on games and have noticed that BYU, Cincy, and C.Mich are all around 8-1 or 9-1 ATS. and i have made money betting on C.Mich and BYU, but now i fear that because of this, the lines are being inflated. For instance, this weekend C.Mich is a 3.5 pt favorite @ N.Illinois. Now i believe that N.Illinios will win this game and think the reason the point spread is like this is because of how C.Mich has been doing ATS. and BYU is also -26.5 and again believe it shouldnt be this high, is there any truth to this??? any insights or thoughts would be great. thanks guys

[Tomorrows Paper]

I agree with you, but I am hesitant to fade a team that is on a pointspread run like that. The BYU line should be more like 21 in my opinion, but until proven otherwise, I'm not fading them.
ECU is 9-1 ATS also, though they face a Rice team that is also covering almost every week since Chase Clement has returned to the lineup.
I don't think Cincy is that good ATS though.

[griswold]

i have been reading you guys for a while but never post, i just wanted some insight on a few trends, lines, etc.... i do homework on games and have noticed that BYU, Cincy, and C.Mich are all around 8-1 or 9-1 ATS. and i have made money betting on C.Mich and BYU, but now i fear that because of this, the lines are being inflated. For instance, this weekend C.Mich is a 3.5 pt favorite @ N.Illinois. Now i believe that N.Illinios will win this game and think the reason the point spread is like this is because of how C.Mich has been doing ATS. and BYU is also -26.5 and again believe it shouldnt be this high, is there any truth to this??? any insights or thoughts would be great. thanks guys

Excellent point and question. I think once teams get on big runs like this the lines are always adjusted BUT often not enough. Southern Cal had a huge ATS run in 04 and 05 and Ohio State has had a big run the last two years. The linemakers kept jacking up the number but never enough.

The same thing seems to be happening with Hawaii. What I have noticed is that the reverse also occurs. Once a team that had been a big ATS run starts losing, they tend to lose a lot against the spread as the public is unwilling to abandon them and keeps the lines inflated. Case in point: Southern Cal THIS year.

[Lil Re/Max]

thanks for some thoughts fellas, i am still a little hesitant to bet the aformentioned teams, but im sure i will make a bet on one of them, and i did notice E.Carolina as well, just figured both teams suck lol, anyway thanks again and see ya guy