TP's NCAA, 11/18

[Tomorrows Paper]

NCAA Plays (52-41-4, +18.20)
3* Louisville -16.5 (-110) - Pinny
3* Michigan +7 (-110) - Cris
2* Indiana +11.5 (-105) - Pinny
2* Mississippi State +14.5 (-110) - Cris
2* Texas Tech -5.5 (-102)

Gonna be a small card this week. I am going to add Kansas - they opened a 3 point favorite, I think they'll close the underdog - and maybe one more. Best of luck everyone.

[CheCheBoFumbe]

good luck TP

[Tomorrows Paper]

NCAA Plays (52-41-4, +18.20)
3* Louisville -16.5 (-110) - Pinny
3* Michigan +7 (-110) - Cris
2* Indiana +11.5 (-105) - Pinny
2* Mississippi State +14.5 (-110) - Cris
2* Texas Tech -5.5 (-102)

3* Alabama +3 (-104)
2* Kansas -2 (-110)

That is all, though I am making about a half unit play on Pitt's team total over tonight, which I will not count in the record. I'll write a little about these games before the day is done. Thanks everyone, and good luck.

[Fenway222]

GL this weekend, TP ..... Really like the Texas Tech play .... GL

Fenway

[MRhotPICKS]

gl this weekend!

[BillMill71]

Good Luck TP

[moondog22]

best of luck TP

[Tomorrows Paper]

NCAA Plays (52-41-4, +18.20)

3* Louisville -16.5 (-110)
This line is finally moving up, and I’m not really sure why it took this long. I think it may have something to do with a phony perception that Louisville will come flat for this game after losing its national championship dreams. All Bobby Petrino has to do to stop that from happening is to mention the score 45-14. That’s the score by which South Florida beat Louisville last season. It’s not like there was some sort of matchup advantage to USF, because Louisville outgained the Bulls by 138 yards, just a combination of mistakes and an incredibly flat performance added up to an early USF lead, which snowballed to that final.
Louisville has covered its last five home revenge games, all but one by 10 or more. The other was a setup very similar to this, as the Cardinals were coming off a disheartening three point loss (at Miami), and they had to come back home and play a South Florida team that had beaten them the year before. That final was 41-9, and it wasn’t that close.
Louisville has covered 14 of 16 at home, including three of four this season. The home team has also won and covered all three meetings in this series. There isn’t a position on the field where USF is Louisville’s equal, and since I believe the motivation is there, this one gets ugly real quick.

3* Michigan +7 (-110)
This line is pretty much holding steady, though some money seems to be coming in on Ohio State. I’m not going to sit here and say that Michigan is the better team, but they are certainly the more balanced team. Getting a touchdown with the better running game and defense is always worth a look, but in a rivalry series, it cannot be passed up.
Speaking of defense, I’ve heard at least three talking heads at ESPN say they feel this year’s OSU defense is better than last season’s. The first time I heard it, I assumed it was sarcasm, but I continue to hear people say this, and I just don’t get it. Last year’s Ohio State team played much better Iowa, Penn St., Michigan State, and Minnesota offenses, as well as Minnesota and Notre Dame. But Holtz, May, and company think this year’s defense is better because they’ve given up fewer points per game. Man that is a great argument. Well, until you consider that Ohio State has only played one balanced offense this season - Iowa, who moved the ball at will most of the night. Four turnovers doomed them in that one.
Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over. Hart never fumbles, and Henne is a good decision maker. Now that Manningham is back, I think the Wolverines have equal playmakers. The road environment won’t be an issue, as Michigan has not only won, but also covered all four road games to date. They have also covered all four games against teams that defeated them last season (or are 3-0-1 ATS if you say the Wisconsin line was 14, though it was 13.5 most of the week).
The only angle that OSU backers can give that interests me at all is the Tressel/Carr factor. I realize Tressel has won 4 of 5 from Carr, but on further inspection, he’s had more talent in each of those games. That is not the case this year, and Ohio State finally faces a team with no real weakness. This game is decided in the fourth quarter, but I really believe it will be the Wolverines heading to play for the national championship.

3* Alabama +3 (-104)
Well, last week I had to bet with my wallet and against my heart by taking Georgia at Auburn. This one pains me even more, for obvious reasons, but the simple fact of the matter is that right now Alabama is simply a better team than Auburn.
Auburn is a really dispirited team right now. The loss to Georgia ended any SEC or national championship possibilities, but more importantly, it fulfilled a long overdue beating at the hands of an equal team. Look at what Auburn has done in beating LSU, Florida, and South Carolina, and losing to Arkansas and Georgia (four of which were home games). In those five games, the Tigers were outgained by over 100 yards per game.
Here’s the great thing. While no one seems to realize it, this Alabama offense is more balanced than any of those five teams. At this point, John Parker Wilson is playing better than any of those team’s quarterbacks besides Russell. The Tide also has a couple pretty good backs. Darby was an early season disappointment, but has been making strides in recent weeks, and Jimmy Johns has been very good in limited action.
Alabama had no such aspirations. The players have actually been praised for their game effort in Baton Rouge - a much closer game than the score indicated - and the Tide players are anxious to end four years of frustration against Auburn. They face an Auburn offense with either a 50% Daniel Cox or a 100% Blake Fields. Neither is any good, and certainly not good enough to expose a very strong Alabama defense.
The dog has covered the last eight Auburn games (including Auburn’s 0-7 ATS record as a favorite) and the dog has covered all but one Alabama game this season (including Alabama‘s ATS record as a favorite), including every conference game.
In conclusion, Alabama is a 9-2 team with a 6-5 record. Auburn is a 6-5 team with a 9-2 record. It showed last week, and on Saturday it will be painfully obvious which team in the state of Alabama is superior. Point to Tuberville over Shula all you want, but that only matters if the game is close. This one won’t be. The Tide rolls by double digits.

2* Indiana +11.5 (-105)
2* Mississippi State +14.5 (-110)
2* Kansas -2 (-110)
2* Texas Tech -5.5 (-102)

[Tomorrows Paper]

Obviously it's Brandon Cox, I was typing a little too quick for my own good.
The other thing to consider is this. Everyone I hear talking about this game says that Alabama's offense is one-dimensional (which is ridiculous, you can make the argument that Alabama's five-deep receivers are the best in the nation, and they have two very good backs). Look at Auburn. They have Courtney Taylor, but there isn't another playmaker on the field. Actually Lester could be one, but TT refuses to give him adequate touches.

[Moose21]

Good luck tomorrow T.P.

[tash]

Gl Tp! Done With Foots For The Year....

[keawe]

Goodluck today TP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jason18]

NCAA Plays (52-41-4, +18.20)
3* Louisville -16.5 (-110) - Pinny
3* Michigan +7 (-110) - Cris
2* Indiana +11.5 (-105) - Pinny
2* Mississippi State +14.5 (-110) - Cris
2* Texas Tech -5.5 (-102)

Gonna be a small card this week. I am going to add Kansas - they opened a 3 point favorite, I think they'll close the underdog - and maybe one more. Best of luck everyone.

gl love the t.tech,miss st.,michigan,and indiana plays.

[vondie]

Go get em TP....love your write ups

[Spark]

Great write ups TP ... Good Luck