NBA Week 2 thread...

[brewers7]

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I'll update records and such later today if I place another bet (will probably take ATL Under in the 1st half again)...

Saturday, November 11

Seattle/Atlanta under 202 -- $110 to win $100

I guess I can just copy-and-paste most of what I already previewed about this game:

I cannot see this total going any direction but down as the day goes on, perhaps falling down as far as 197 maybe...Seattle is 29th in the league in FG% allowed (on defense), while Atlanta is 3rd...Seattle has suddenly become a stone Under team on this Road trip and the pace of their games has even slowed dramatically...The Sonics game totals the last 3 contests have gone Under the Vegas number by a whopping aggregate total of 88 points (almost 30 points Under a game)...Atlanta has been a Stone Under team all year, until getting an OT-aided Over on TUE and a late foul-fest Over at Toronto yesterday...I am sorry, but I am not seeing a 200 game here (total is at 202)...I will be looking to also bet the Under on the 1H again, since Atlanta has had 5 easy 1H Unders in all their games this season and Seattle was obviously EASILY Under the 1H total in every game on this Road trip thus far...Sure, 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings between these 2 at ATL flew Over, but this really appears to be a different ATL team early this season, slowing the pace down and running the offense through Joe johnson at times, and he has responded with a terrific start to the season...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[videoman]

good luck brewer

[brewers7]

The Atlanta total didn't drop hardly at all to my surprise although the Bulls line shot up which was no surprise...Should have bet CHI last night although I am still considering GS for a bet (trap of the night)...My 16-2 run on my NBA Top 3 sides ened last night going 1-2, so look for a possible cooling off period here, although 17-4 ain't a bad run...

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Added play:

Saturday, November 11

Seattle/Atlanta, 1H, under 98.5 -- $104 to win $100

Atlanta has been easily Under in the 1H in all 5 of their games and SEA has been easily Under all 3 games of this Road trip...I have had a good week, so if I blow $200 here because this game turns into a track meet, then so be it, but I am one who will ride out some trends to the end, and from a handicapping point of view, there is no other side to be on here, because if you are taking this game Over, it is strictly a gut-shot play and if it flies Over then I congratulate you on having a good gut, because the pace and shots taken for all ATL games this year points to the Under and the pace and shots taken for all 3 SEA games on this Road trip point to the Under tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Saturday's picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Sea, 3) Chi, 4) Milw, 5) Orl, 6) Memp, 7) SA, 8) Cle

Totals:

1) Sea un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Orl un, 4) Chi un, 5) SA ov, 6) GS ov, 7) Milw ov, 8) Memp un

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[brewers7]

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Added play:

Saturday, November 11

Cleveland Caviliers, 2H, -9.5 -- $107 to win $100

I don't like the fact that they are down 14, so they basically have to win to cover because if they lose, they will lose by more than 4 in all likelihood, but this is a standard 2H play for me because the inferior Road team is shooting 52% at the Half and the superior Home team is shooting 26% at the half, so I am morally obligated as a handicapper to take Cleveland even though as I watch the game on TV, Cleveland has no life at all...Maybe they will feel like playing in the 2H, we'll see...This may be a bad night...Proceed with caution...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[MtrCtyPimp]

take a look at the over.......i almost parlayed with the Cavs......I got that Sonic under also and a 4th quarter bog down is possible

PEACE

[MtrCtyPimp]

bro that game almost ended 101-99 Seattle.....OT again

PEACE

[vinnyvegas]

Yep, jobbed by OT AGAIN...shit! I saw that 1/2 score and said I should pound it but pussed out...oh well.

Tomorrow's another day.

[MtrCtyPimp]

Yep, jobbed by OT AGAIN...shit! I saw that 1/2 score and said I should pound it but pussed out...oh well.

Tomorrow's another day.

we were done in regulation, but barely

PEACE

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Sunday's games (Bets will come later):

New Orleans at LA Clippers: The Clips only 2 Overs were against Phoenix thus far...Thyey held Denver to their only Under of the season at Home and barely kept Dallas Under along with Portland...NO is 4th in the league and LAC is 6th in the league in FG% allowed, and the Hornets have played 4 Unders in 6 games...I can see one team hitting 90 here, but to have both teams getting at least 95 seems like a bit of a stretch here unless both teams shoot lights out...Clips have won 4 straight & covered 3 straight after a NC2 and the Hornets have a current NC3 and 2 losses after starting the year with a C3 and 4 wins...I am not sure if this matters, but the last time these 2 teams played at Staples last March, the Clips led 59-49 with about 8:00 left in the 3Q before being outscored 40-8 to close out the game (yes, the game) as the Hornets I believe set a modern-day NBA record for futility with just 16 points in the second half, losing 89-67...I think the Hornets can get Under the number but I see an Under here as the stronger play...


New Jersey at Washington: Can NJ rise up without Richard Jefferson and win (or at least Cover) this game?...The general rule of thumb is that you take a team with a star player out that first time...And I am not sure what is going on with that Stone Over the last time out for NJ after 3 Unders to start the season...A 219 vs. Miami?...This logic can sometimes be ill-fated logic when handicapping, but if NJ and Miami can combine to score 219, how is that not happening again against a Wizards' team not interested in playing defense?...The Wiz lead the league in points scored while are 23rd in FG% allowed...NJ is 7th in FG% allowed...7 Overs in the last 10 head-to-head...I got to say Over and just ignore the side and see how NJ adjust without RJ...

Denver at Charlotte: No total posted here as Brevin Knight's questioable status must be the reason for that...Denver Over in 3 of 4 games, while CHAR has 4 straight Unders (in regulation) and are still #1 in the league in FG% allowed...Denver is 4th worst...The pace will be quick as this young CHAR team is quick and scrappy, and I think this will lend it self to a lot of turnovers on both sides and easy baskets...I do like the Over...Denver has played 4 close games thus far and I would think this one will be down to the wire, too, but I'll back Denver here...

Houston at Miami: This game lends to the Under at first glance...However, upon further review, we see a strange 219 last time out for Miami and the Rockets have 4 Overs in 6 games thus far...But Miami has 3 Unders at Home, while both Overs were on the Road...I look for a slower pace here and I have no problem leaning to Houston to win this straight up (but doubt if I'd bet that)...

Toronto at Sacramento: Toronto Coach Sam Mitchell flew off the handle after their last loss and is threatening to shake up the starting lineup...SAC has been a different team at Home for years and since they acquired Ron Artest last season, they have re-established their Home Court advantage...I wonder when the loss of Brad Miller will start to have an impact as it hasn't yet as SAC won and covered both Home games...I expect TOR to bounce-back a bit after their coach's tongue-lashing...As far as the total goes, I am wondering if SAC is a chamelion team, in other words, a team that plays to the pace of their opponent...Their 4 Unders were against defesnive-minded teams who prefer a half-court game, while their only Over was against MILW...With that said, I cannot help but like the Over here as both games between these teams hit 210 or more last year...

Dallas at Portland: Dallas finally got a win, but they won't get Josh Howard back for another week or so...Portland is off to an impressive 4-2 start despite having 4 key players injured...I really am in absolutely no mood to lay 5.5 at PORT as the Blazers are 3-0 at Home, but I think that Finals hangover is just about done with dallas and I believe that Coach Avery Johnson will get this team on a roll now that they finally got a "W"...The Mavs have some win-able games upcoming, and going to PORT has not scared this team one bit recently, so I think the Mavs will win, but that number may be tough to cover...PORT has had 5 straight Unders and this head-to-head matchup has produced 7 Unders in the last 8 meetings...

Memphis at LA Lakers: Double-header at Staples here, but no line posted...Not sure why (maybe because Kobe had an ice-pack on his knee late in their last game while getting hammered vs. Detroit)...MEMP has been Under in regulation in all 5 games played and the Lakers have gone Under 3 straight after 4 Overs to start the campaign...Both games went Over at Staples last season, but 1 was OT-aided...The Lakers have yet to Cover since Kobe returned (one was a push, though)...A ntaural lean to the Under and if the line isn't ridiculous, I'll lean to the Lake-show to turn the tide of this head-to-head series that has seen MEMP cover 7 of the last 8...

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[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 19-10, +$979

Sides: 8-3, +$447, Totals: 6-5, +$186, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

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My top 3 NBA Sides have gone 20-4 the last 8 days, but I keep being snake-fascinated by totals, though...I post ALL of my picks because if you cap your own games and you come up with a play that I also picked and ranked highly, then that should be a bet for you...I rank my plays in order of preference, from best to worst...My #1 NBA Sides are 10-2 on the season...And here I go betting a total again...I may have another bet later, not sure...

Sunday, November 12

New Orleans/LA Clippers under 192 -- $101 to win $100

I am not sure why this total has gone up all day, but I will gladly tale an extra 3 points and bet the Under...The Clips only 2 Overs were against Phoenix thus far...Thyey held Denver to their only Under of the season at Home and barely kept Dallas Under along with Portland...NO is 4th in the league and LAC is 6th in the league in FG% allowed, and the Hornets have played 4 Unders in 6 games...I can see one team hitting 90 here, but to have both teams getting at least 95 seems like a bit of a stretch here unless both teams shoot lights out...These 2 teams played a 156 game here at Staples last March...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Sunday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Memp, 2) Hou, 3) Tor, 4) NO, 5) Den, 6) Dal, 7) NJ

Totals:

1) NO un, 2) Den ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Tor ov, 5) Dal un, 6) Hou un, 7) NJ ov

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-2 (-$114)
Last 3 days: 3-3 (-$19)
Last 7 days: 8-4 (+$981)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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