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Tough break last night on the Clev under!! I followed your play, so I feel your pain. Great write up, and accurate, just can't plan for OT! GL tonight!
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Yep, OT always sucks unless you have the OVER...better luck tonight.FUCK YOU, FUCK MEComment
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Thanx guys...Tough loss, but bad beats happen and ya gotta have a short memory doing this stuff...I will list all my picks shortly and I am debating other bets...Originally posted by vinnyvegasComment
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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 15-7, +$498
Sides: 8-2, +$552, Totals: 5-4, -$204, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50
System Plays: 0-0
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Ok, will re-post my pick from last night, which I was tempted to bet more on, but hey, don't want to go too crazy here early in the season...I like several games, but am exercising patience and vigilence tonight, sticking with one bet...Plus, I went 6-0 on Sides last night and have won 6 straight #1 Sides, so I am due for a loss...I have tracked my daily picks and rankings for over 10 years now and my longest winning streak for #1 Sides is 11 straight wins...6 straight in early November is a first for me...As for tonight, I will be watching closely for halftime lines to bet...I will also give brief notes on games that caught my eye below my write-up...
Wednesday, November 8
N.Y. Knicks/Denver over 208 -- $525 to win $500
(posted last night) I guess I could have waited a few more minutes as the juice has moved even lower on the Over due to the announcement that Steve Francis is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain...This doesn't bother me a bit...With Stevie Franchise playing the first half against SA, the 1H stayed Under (all 4 Knicks games have stayed Under in the 1H and all 4 have gone Over in the 2H -- 1 was OT-aided) and in the 2H against SA, Francis was in street clothes and the Knicks scored plenty without him and earned the Over for the game without him playing...Thee Knicks have plenty of scorers, their problem is defense...Denver, NY and Phoenix have the 3 fastest-paced teams in the league and when any 2 of these 3 teams are playing each other this season, the total should not be less than 220...The Knicks have shot terribly EVERY game this season and yet still have 3 Overs (1 was OT-aided) out of 4 games...Denver shot 50% against Minny on November 3 and the total hit 221 and the T'Wolves certainly have a better defense than the Knicks...With a total of 208 and the pace this game should be at, if these teams just shoot about 46% or 47% for the game, this should go Over without too much problem...I thought about betting more, but with Francis out, I'll leave it at $500 as I would be shocked not to see this game hit 220...
Good Luck...brewers7
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Notes on other games:
Spurs playing their 5th game in 7 days at Home, so this is a situational spot to fade and Phoenix has 3 days rest coming in and will not want to start 1-4, especially with Dallas on the schedule for tomorrow...
The Rockets went Over in their only bk-2-bk this season and Milwaukee went Over in their only Home game and have gone Over 3 of 4 games...Just smells like an Over to me...
I like the Nets because it is hard to start an NBA season 5-0 these days, especially when the league seems to have more parity than ever, and this low number shouldn't be a problem for rested NJ (4 days rest to prepare for this one)...
The last 2 seasons I talked to a Professional handicapper from Sweden daily and I thought that wouldn't be happening this season as he was going to play poker full time, but we did discuss the games today for the first time this season and he also liked Portland as it was his top play...I love talking with him because he is strong-minded and doesn't just agree with me about eberything, he disagrees with me often and points out some good reasons why he is on who he is on...But anyway, back to this game, just look at the recent history between these 2 teams at Portland -- all the games are super-close (PORT has won 3 straight and lost by 3 and 1 the previous 2 games) and the Lakers are going bk-2-bk, a spot they didn't fare well wth last year although they are 1-0 ATS this season early on...
Only one way to play the Dallas/Clippers total and that is Under...9 straight have gone Under head-to-head and most of them were stone Unders...These type of h-2-h Under series tend to stay that way for a while because if you look at Cleve/Detroit, they have gone Under something like 15 of their last 16 or something close to that...
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:
1) Phoe, 2) NJ, 3) Port, 4) Orl, 5) Dal, 6) Det, 7) Tor, 8) Was, 9) Den, 10) Milw, 11) Bos
Totals:
1) Den ov, 2) Milw ov, 3) Orl ov, 4) Was ov, 5) Dal un, 6) Phoe ov, 7) NJ un, 8) Det un, 9) Port un, 10) Tor un, 11) Bos un
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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-1 (Even)
Last 3 days: 4-1 (+$500)
Last 7 days: 14-6 (+$516)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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Looking for your posts brewers7. GL
WHERE R U?
You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.Comment
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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 16-7, +$998
Sides: 8-2, +$552, Totals: 6-4, +$296, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50
System Plays: 0-0
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This is a tough board for me, and after talking to my Professional handicapper friend from Sweden for a good 30 minutes about these 3 games, I find he is against me on my top 2 sides...My #1 Side pick has won 7 straight and is 8-1 on the season...My longest streak ever since I started tracking my ranked picks 11 seasons ago is 11 straight winners...I will look for half-time lines again tonight...
Thursday, November 9
Dallas/Phoenix, 1Q, over 51 -- $111 to win $100
Almost passed on the board tonight as I don't like much at all...But I will take a shot here with this 1st-quarter play...Phoenix had a 67-point 1Q opening night when the played the Lakers (combined total, obviously) and since then, have gone Under 4 in the 1st quarter 4 straight games, not really getting all that close to going Over any of those games...Dallas has started fast in most of their games this season, shooting lights out in the 1Q, only to fade over the course of the game and last night was a classic example of that, out-scoring the Clips 32-21 in the 1Q and then losing by 18 for the game...With the exception of the Houston game (a 31-point loss), Dallas has flown Over in the 1Q in their other 3 games, so I believe this is a great spot for Phoenix to end their 4-game Under streak in the 1Q tonight as perhaps these teams can put up 60 here...I only need 52, and since Dallas had a 53-point 1Q against SA and a 53 last night and a 61 vs. GS, I have to say I like his bet more than any other tonight...
Good Luck...brewers7
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Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:
1) Dal, 2) GS, 3) Cle
Totals:
1) Dal ov, 2) GS ov, 3) Cle un
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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$500)
Last 3 days: 5-1 (+$1000)
Last 7 days: 11-4 (+$996)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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Early looks at Friday's games (Bets won't be posted until FRI afternoon):
Seattle at Charlotte: Quite a dichotomy here...Seattle is dead-last in the league in FG% allowed (on defense), while Charlotte actually leads the league in this category...Looks like Vegas also believes that defense is more important than offense as they have installed the Bobcats as a small favorite...Seattle has suddenly become a stone Under team their last 2 games and I quite frankly don't see any reason this won't stay Under again...CHAR has 3 straight Unders (in regulation)...
Orlando at Indiana: No line yet as O'Neal is questionable...Indy won all 3 games last year...ORL is currently on a NC4 streak, despite winning 2 straight...Indy blown out last time out at WASH without O'Neal...Indy probably be about a 3 or 4-point FAV here, but I will focus in on the Under as I look at the amount of total shots taken in Orlando games is VERY low, so I have to at least glance in on the Under, despite both teams being in the bottom half of the league in FG% allowed...
Atlanta at Toronto: Another dichotomy game as Atlanta is 3rd in the league in FG% allowed, while Toronto is 3rd-worst (28th)...ATL has won and covered 3 straight and had a nice upset win at CLE 2 days ago in OT...Let-down spot here for the Hawks so an early lean to TOR...ATL has also gone Under every game (in regulation) while TOR has gone un-ov-un-ov...The shots per game in ATL games is very low...TOR's is high in every game except vs SA, so TOR could be a chameleon team that plays to the style of their opponent...If this is the case, this Under should be easy...
Milwaukee at Washington: How easy does this Over look?...I expect that total to shoot upwards...Watching the Wiz play several times now, I see a team not overly concerned with defense as they run up and down the floor...The strange thing with Milwaukke is that their 4 Overs have been against teams known for defense, while their only Under came against Toronto...Very strange...Washington has flown Over 3 straight games and just missed going Over in their opener...
Denver at Philadelphia: No more undefeated teams left and now only one winless team left: Denver...K'Mart is out for a few weeks now...Philly started incredibly well, shockingly enough at 3-0, but that was perhaps a mirage as they are the same team as last year who added nobody of significance...Philly Over 3 of 5 and Denver Over 2 of 3 and although I was thinking this Denver team was going to be putting up Phoenix totals all year, I am starting to wonder if this is true or not after this 0-3 start...It's either Over or a no-play here and I would have to pick the Nuggets to get their first win...
Utah at Boston: Utah 2nd in the league in FG% allowed and Boston is 9th believe it or not...Boston Under 3 of their 4 games (in regulation) with the only Over being against Washington...Utah has 3 Unders in 5 games so I would have to lean to the Under here, despite the head-to-head series going Over 4 straight and 7 of the last 8, but this is one of the higher Vegas totals posted for this matchup in a while...Boston has also covered 4 straight and 7 of 8 in this series, so if you like Boston, take it Over, and if you like Utah, take it Under...I am one never to follow the crowd blindly, so I lean to Boston and the Under for the moment as I expect the public squares to be on Utah...
Miami at New Jersey: No line yet as we wait and see if SHAQ can play...I always like quick-revenge spots early in the season, and they have worked really well thus far this season, so I will lean to NJ here as they lost at Miami last week, the only game the Heat covered...NJ owned the Heat last year (until the playoffs)...Both teams in the top 11 in FG% allowed and the pace of the games in terms of shots taken has been slow for both teams so far this season...
NY Knicks at Houston: New York has gone Over 4 of 5 and surprisingly, Houston has gone Over 3 of 5...Houston might be glancing ahead to playing Miami next, but this is certainly a let-down spot for the Knicks...A lot of contradictory trends and info here, but with Jamal Crawford starting now and flourishing (35 in his first start last time out) instead of coming off the bench (due to the Steve Francis injury), the Knicks aren't going to miss a beat scoring points as I mentioned before their last game...Leans to the Over and the Dog here...
New Orleans at Portland: The Hornets played last night and got their first loss at GS, but their starters did not play a ton of minutes so I don't see fatigue being a factor here...A let-down spot here for Portland after a big win vs. the Lakers...Tough game for me to cap as I think Vegas dd a good job with both the line and the total...Stay-away game for me...
Detroit at LA Lakers: This line if off the board as Rip Hamilton is questionable...The Lakers have yet to cover the spread since Kobe returned (they did have a push)...I cannot see Detroit losing 3 straight, and they should get 2 or 3 here and it'll be more like 6 if Rip is out...Detroit has been unpredictable with their totals, while the Lakers have gone Under 2 straight after 4 Overs...Lakers actually 7th in FG% allowed and even more surprsing is that Detroit is 20th (I guess they miss Big Ben Wallace)...
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Nice work. Hit Dal and Gs sides!!FUCK YOU, FUCK MEComment
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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 17-7, +$1098
Sides: 8-2, +$552, Totals: 6-4, +$296, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100
System Plays: 0-0
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My #1 Sides plays have won 8 straight and are 9-1 on the season...My #1 Totals are 7-3 thus far...I like my Totals better than my sides tonight...Tempted to make several bets, but I have been too hot, and am waiting for the other shoe to drop, so I will limit my bets and look for 2H bets tonight...
Friday, November 10
Atlanta/Toronto, 1H, under 96.5 -- $103 to win $100
Ok, I realize I have only lost ONE bet since last Friday and that ONE loss was Atlanta Under at Cleveland on Tuesday and it took a miracle OT to give me that loss...Am I tempting fate again?...Well, OT cannot burn me this time as I will bet the 1H...
Atlanta has been a Stone Under team in the 1st half every game this season...They have also gone Under every game this season (in regulation) fairly easily...The pace of their games and shots taken have been slow and low, respectively...Atlanta is 3rd in the league in FG% allowed (on defense)...Ok, Toronto is 28th and love to run-and-gun, and yes, the last 8 in this head-to-head series have gone Over, but 2 of those were OT-aided Overs...Milwaukee is also run-and-gun and have gone Over 4 of their 5 games, yet, when they played at Toronto, the game stayed Under and they had a 201 total that game...And now we are to expect Atlanta and Toronto to hit 201?...And Speedy Claxton (their starting point guard) is doubtful tonight...Toronto and Philly had a slow-paced 1H last time out and then exploded for 125 in the 2H, and Atlanta did have a high-scoring 2H at Cleveland last time out, so since ATL has yet to even come close to going Over in the 1H this season, I will bet this game Under in the 1st half...
Other notes: I may add other bets, not sure yet...The Knicks have gone Under in all 5 of their games in the 1st half and have gone Over all 5 of their games in the 2H (1 was OT-aided, tho)...Something tells me the Denver/Philly game might fly Over and the same goes for the Milw/Was over...A Professional Handicapper friend of mine from Sweden loves the Hornets/Port game Under along with the Hornets, Knicks and Jazz...I want to bet several games, but am trying to be vigilant here...
Good Luck...brewers7
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Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:
1) Tor, 2) NO, 3) NY, 4) Den, 5) Orl, 6) Char, 7) NJ, 8) Milw, 9) Det, 10) Bos
Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Den ov, 3) NY ov, 4) Milw ov, 5) NJ un, 6) Char un, 7) Orl un, 8) Bos un, 9) Det un, 10) NO un
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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
Last 3 days: 3-1 (+$600)
Last 7 days: 12-3 (+$1621)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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Brewers,
Is your play in bold the only play you are using or do you consider the longer list to be plays as well?Comment
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gris,
I am friends w/ Brew so if you need a quick answer, here it is.
YES, his bold is his play for night. Only ones as he stays disciplined.
He has an incredible NBA knowledge along w/ database that goes back 20+ yrs...opening lines, final scores...as a tip of the iceberg.
He lists his picks for rest of games for tracking purposes...I want to say so he keeps up w/ the feel of what kind of lines Vegas puts out along past and present info.
I know I'm not doing him the justice by answering but I know his plays each night are BOLD ONLY. Occasionally he'll add, such as 2nd H's but he'll post those as well.
GLFUCK YOU, FUCK MEComment
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Nice hit Steve!!! Another winner!FUCK YOU, FUCK MEComment
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Way to go....Didn't play it cuz I didn't see it early enough. I appreciate the plays and write ups Brewer. If at all possible, can you post your plays as early as possible? I have a hard time logging in late in the afternoon.....Thanks,
KAZComment
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Additional play:
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One win in, so I'll take another shot here with a final play of the night unless I can get some guts and pull the trigger on some of these 2H bets that have been easy tonight and I have passed on every single one...
Friday, November 10
New Orleans -2.5 -- $105 to win $100
Coach Nate McMillan will not be on the bench for Portland due to a death in the family and Brandon Roy will be out again tonight for Portland who is coming off an emotional win over the Lakers on Wednesday...The Hornets lost at Golden State last night for their first loss of the season...
This sets up a NBA Handicapping 101 situation for me that dictates: "You always take the good bounce-back team vs. the bad let-down team"...
Make no mistake, this Hornets team will make the playoffs this season unless they get some serious injuries...Chris Paul is not having a sophomore slump, in fact, he is flourishing this season...He couldn't hit an outside shot last year to save his life, and now he is burying shots from the perimeter, so look out now...Portland started out 3-3 last year and then collapsed, like most bad teams do...They have energy early in the season and garner a few wins, but the teams with the horses ebentually wear down everyone else and teams like Portland are left in the dust...
Although Zach Randolph has been a monster this season and in fact, I don't believe Portland is all that bad (but Darius Miles is hurt and Roy is hurt), the bottom line is they are not a playoff team...Hornets' starters did not play extended minutes last night, so I doubt whether fatigue will be a factor and I like the Hornets to bounce back tonight and grab a win over Portland, as I am not sure Randolph can repeat that 36-point performance of 2 nights ago...
Good Luck...brewers7
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Early looks at Saturday's games (Bets won't be posted until SAT afternoon):
Seattle at Atlanta: Ok, a few things here...Seattle is 29th in the league in FG% allowed (on defense), while Atlanta is 3rd...Seattle has suddenly become a stone Under team on this Road trip and the pace of their games has even slowed dramatically...The Sonics game totals the last 3 contests have gone Under the Vegas number by a whopping aggregate total of 88 points (almost 30 points Under a game)...Atlanta has been a Stone Under team all year, until getting an OT-aided Over on TUE and a late foul-fest Over at Toronto yesterday...I am sorry, but I am not seeing a 200 game here (total is at 202) so it is just a matter of whether I bet the game total Under or ATL Under in the 1H again, since they have had 5 easy 1H Unders this season...Sure, 3 of the last 4 between these 2 at ATL flew Over, but this really appears to be a different ATL team this season...
Now we get to my favorite NBA trend, the 4-games-in-5-days trend...The general rule of thumb is you always take the Away team in a game where a 4-of-5 team is playing...If the Home team is playing their 4th game in 5 days, then the trend is stronger and if both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days, taking the Away team is stronger yet...If the Away Team is the only one playing their 4th game in 5 days, you still take the Away team and it is still fairly strong...In fact this season, the Away Team playing their 4th game in 5 days is 4-1 ATS, covering 4 straight occurrences...I don't bet this trend blindly as I consider all other factors and other trends, but I think Seattle can cover this one as ATL is going to have a flat spot sooner or later...
Boston at Cleveland: The Celtics have yet to cover the spread this season (they did have a push)...Both teams are on Over swings after starting the season with multiple Unders...BOS has 3 straight Overs (1 OT-aided) after 2 Unders and Cleveland started with 3 straight Unders, an OT-aided Over and another Over, and I think there will have another Over tonight...CLE does play to the level of their competition sometimes, but this is the time last year when the Cavs had a C8, so are they about to go on a nice run with some "inferior" competition coming up on their schedule?...Cleveland is 1-0 ATS this season in what I call "check-mark" games, and that is a team with rest playing a team on the back-end of back-to-back games...
NY Knicks at San Antonio: The Knicks have played 4 straight Overs and the Spurs have surprising played 4 Overs (1 was OT-aided) in 5 games...I said before the season started I would ride the Knicks and Nuggets Over trains (yet stupidly passed on both yesterday) so my inclination here is the Over of course, but if the Spurs bury this team, the Under may come in...Isiah Thomas won't allow his team to quit, but my gut is wondering if this is the game where the Knickerbockers get slaughtered...
Orlando at Minnesota: The Magic are currently on a NC5 streak...So they are either under-achieving or over-valued or both to this point of the season...The Under just seems like a natural here despite this head-to-head matchup going Over all 3 games last season...Minny will be looking to end a 3-game losing streak...Minny is 1-0 in check-mark games and Orlando is 0-1 on the back-end of back-to-back games when their opponent has rest...
Utah at Milwaukee: The Jazz are 5-1 and Milwaukee is 2-4 so on the surface, this is a game the Bucks need to get themselves back on track...The Bucks have gone Over 5 of their 6 games, while Utah totals are up this year, with 4 games going Over 200...I don't see any immediate trends or angles to sink my teeth into so this would seem like a no-play game for me...
Indiana at Chicago: This is the second 4-games-in-5-days trend for Saturday, and I don't think the Away Team gets it done here...Chicago is in extreme bounce-back mode after a thrashing at Cleveland on TNT Thursday night, where the cavs shot 57% against the defensive-minded Bulls...The Pacers got killed by WASh when the Wiz had rest and the Pacers were playing their 2nd game in 2 nights, and covered against the Knicks, but BOTH teams were playing their 2nd game in 2 nights in that one...Indiana went Over in both of their back-enders this season...I think the Bulls could win this by double-digits...
Memphis at Phoenix: The Grizz had Phoenix's number a bit last year, covering all 3 meetings (winning 2 SU)...No Gasol now and the Suns are ultra-hungry for a win after their worst start since 1997 at 1-5...The Suns have gone Over 5 of 6 (1 was OT-aided and 1 stayed Under by 1/2-a-point) and Memphis has gone Under in all 4 of their games (in regulation time)...Both games went Over at PHOE last season...
Detroit at Golden State: This line if off the board as Rip Hamilton is still questionable...GS had covered 9 straight head-to-head until Detroit covered last season in their final meeting on 12/23/05 at Detroit...The Pistons had a nice win last night against the Lakers at Staples so this is a let-down spot and Detroit ceratinly has not been anything close to consistent yet this season...The Warriors have been inconsistent themselves and I'll be leaning to the Over when this line comes out...
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