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**brewers7** · 11-06-2006, 09:49 PM

If I had a bigger bet on Chicago, I would definitely hedge with a 2H bet as Chicago is shooting 60% from the field (that won't hold up) and Milwaukee is shooting 38% from the field (should go up a bit)...

I'll let it ride though and hope Chicago doesn't blow this kind of lead for the second straight Home game...

**vinnyvegas** · 11-07-2006, 12:00 AM

NICE SWEEP...had Spurs too after reading your post. Added Port late in a 7 teamer that has 5 down w/ Ducks & Port left to cover...crossing my nuts!

**brewers7** · 11-07-2006, 03:57 AM

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 14-6, +$498

Sides: 7-2, +$452, Totals: 5-3, -$104, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50

System Plays: 0-0

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No line out yet on the Miami game due to Shaq's status and I do have a pair of 4-games-in-5-days games to look at also...I will be back with some thoughts on the other games and maybe another bet if I see anything that jumps out...

Tuesday, November 7

Atlanta/Cleveland under 187 -- $100 to win $107

I don't know how I can bet this game any other way...I have never been a big fan of betting Unders, but I have bet Unders a LOT more in the last 5 years than in the past and feel I have become a more complete handicapper by doing so...

Here is the way I look at this game from a handicapping stand-point:

Atanta is 6th and Cleveland is 10th in the league (on defense) in FG% allowed, while on offense, Atlanta is 28th and Cleveland is 24th in FG%...Also, both teams have played 3 games each, and all 3 games went Under for each team...The pace of the games for these 2 teams is slow, with total shots around 140 a game for the most part...

Let's break that down further:

With Cleveland, they have played San Antonio, who has 3 Overs and their ONLY Under in 4 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Washington and the Wizards' ONLY Under in 3 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Charlotte and Charlotte has 2 Unders in 3 games (CLE and Memphis)...

With Atlanta, they have played Philadelphia and the 76ers ONLY Under was against Atlanta in 3 games...Atlanta played the Knicks and NY's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta...And Atlanta played Orlando and the Magic's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta...

Do we need any more compelling evidence to point to the Under here?...Now hey, this is sports gambling and this game may fly Over the total just for the hell of it or the game may go to overtime and go Over the total, but to me, I can only bet this game Under or not bet the game...I will watch the line move (if any) and decide whether to add any more to this bet later (although I'll probably leave it at $100)...

Good Luck...brewers7

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Tuesday's Picks:

pending...will be added in the afternoon...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 3-0 (+$500)
Last 3 days: 6-0 (+$1000)
Last 7 days: 14-6 (+$498)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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**BettorsChat** · 11-07-2006, 08:16 AM

gl brewers

**KazDog** · 11-07-2006, 10:14 AM

Solid analysis Brewer7....Thanks for the pick and the write up

KAZ

**GrandPa** · 11-07-2006, 12:07 PM

Good stuff, brewers7. GL on that under play, think I'll try it out too. Check out Hou/Mem UNDER 179 too.

**vinnyvegas** · 11-07-2006, 02:22 PM

Line has moved up...hmmm??? Got 190 now...something doesn't gel here...

**Gookis** · 11-07-2006, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by vinnyvegas

Line has moved up...hmmm??? Got 190 now...something doesn't gel here...

This is a tough one. Last season, this would have been an easy OVER for me. Clev was an offensive machine at home, and Atl was actually a decent scoring team with no D. Like I said though, that was last year.....but that might be one reason for the line movement....I'm guessing that if this was last season, the total would be somewhere around 198. Really like the write up though, might tag along.

**brewers7** · 11-07-2006, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by GrandPa

Good stuff, brewers7. GL on that under play, think I'll try it out too. Check out Hou/Mem UNDER 179 too.

I am almost done with the board, but yes, Hou/Memp under or no bet...

**brewers7** · 11-07-2006, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by Gookis

This is a tough one. Last season, this would have been an easy OVER for me. Clev was an offensive machine at home, and Atl was actually a decent scoring team with no D. Like I said though, that was last year.....but that might be one reason for the line movement....I'm guessing that if this was last season, the total would be somewhere around 198. Really like the write up though, might tag along.

Not only was CLE an Over team at Home, but Atlanta had no defense last year...They appear to be playing defense this season, shockingly enough, and with a 2-1 record, I will go out on a limb and say they will continue playing defense...

You are right though, Gookis, in so far as saying that last year, this total would be about 8 points higher and this game would be high scoring because the lowest scoring game between these 2 teams last year was 194...But last year is last year...

The thing that stands out to me is that I watched Washington play Boston and Orlando (I have NBA League Pass) and Washington just runs up and down the floor, full-speed ahead...And yet, vs. Cleveland AT Cleveland, the Wiz and Cavs played to a 191 total and Atlanta ain't no Washington when it comes to offense...

Only one way to play it for me...UNDER...I may be wrong, but handicapping is handicapping, it's not a perfect science because as Chris Berman says, "That's why they play the games"...

GL...

be back with all my TUE picks in a bit...

**BillMill71** · 11-07-2006, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by brewers7

Not only was CLE an Over team at Home, but Atlanta had no defense last year...They appear to be playing defense this season, shockingly enough, and with a 2-1 record, I will go out on a limb and say they will continue playing defense...

You are right though, Gookis, in so far as saying that last year, this total would be about 8 points higher and this game would be high scoring because the lowest scoring game between these 2 teams last year was 194...But last year is last year...

The thing that stands out to me is that I watched Washington play Boston and Orlando (I have NBA League Pass) and Washington just runs up and down the floor, full-speed ahead...And yet, vs. Cleveland AT Cleveland, the Wiz and Cavs played to a 191 total and Atlanta ain't no Washington when it comes to offense...

Only one way to play it for me...UNDER...I may be wrong, but handicapping is handicapping, it's not a perfect science because as Chris Berman says, "That's why they play the games"...

GL...

be back with all my TUE picks in a bit...

Good Luck Brewers, I am on the other side. I still think that Cle over will still be a good play throughout the year. I took the over in the Cle/Wiz game and won at 190.5. I understand you thought process, but if you watched that game Arenas couldn't hit a hous, he was like 2 - 12 from the field. Cle also was horrible from the field and couldn not hit from the stripe. While I agree Atl is playing better defensively I still see this game around 195. Good luck again

**Kaptain** · 11-07-2006, 05:32 PM

nice start---gl tonight----keep em coming----kapt----and welcome my man----kapt

**brewers7** · 11-07-2006, 06:50 PM

Additional play:

Tuesday, November 7

Minnesota Timberwolves +8 -- $105 to win $100

There are 2 games tonight that have Away teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights and this is one of them...Ben tracking this trend religiously for more than 10 years...The general rule of thumb if you want to bet the 4th-game-5-nights trend is to always take the Away Team, no matter which team is playing their 4th game in 5 nights...I do not bet it blindly, but in the long run, you generally get value because the public squares always think the Away Team is "tired" playing their 4th game in 5 nights...In some cases, this may be true, but certainly not for all of them, and if you noticed, the Spurs line came down last night and the GS and Minny lines have both gone up today because the public will always bet against the "tired" Away team...

But other situational trends need to be considered...This year, the Clips barely covered against 4-of-5 Phoenix on NOV 4th, and I did buck the trend and bet the Clips because there were OTHER situational factors to consider, the big one being that this was a quick-revenge game and this was the second-time in 3 nights that the Clips played PHOE when the Clips had rest and PHOE did not...The Spurs were an easy choice last night because their starters were rested and their game the day before was in the afternoon, NOT at night, so they got into their hotel rooms at a normal hour with short travel and were NOT fatigued...

Tonight, we have GS and Minny both playing their 4th game in 5 nights...I picked both Away teams...But I will not bet GS because of the let-down situational factor after a big upset at Dallas last night...However I will bet Minnesota because they lost last night and are in bounce-back mode...The T-Wolves had two 4-of-5 games last year, both on the Road, and they covered the game where they lost the night before and they did NOT cover the game where they won the night before...This is somewhat typical for this trend...

The Lakers still seem to be adjusting to getting Kobe back as they pushed the spread and lost in his 2 games back...Minny has played the Lake-show tough the last 2 seasons and even though it appears that Lamar Odom is showing up to play this season and it appears as if the Lakers are much better early on, I won't lay 8 with this team any time soon...I'll take the 4-of-5 Dog here and hope that Minny keeps it close...

Good Luck...brewers7

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Tuesday's Sides:

1) Hou, 2) Min, 3) Ind, 4) Sea, 5) GS, 6) Atl

Totals:

1) Atl un, 2) Ind ov, 3) Sea ov, 4) Hou un, 5) Min un, 6) GS un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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**brewers7** · 11-07-2006, 10:32 PM

I watched the final minute on satellite of the Cleveland game and it was painful...LeBron missed a free-throw with 6 seconds left that probably would have iced it (would have made it a 3-point game, ATL no timeouts, CLE may have fouled on purpose to prevent them from making a 3)...Then Lue throws up a floater at the buzzer that somehow goes in...

I wish books offered "regulation" Unders because I get burned about once a month at least on these Unders with OT...If I had bet more than $100, I would have hedged at halftime on the 2H Over, believe me...

The bottom line is the game was handicapped correctly, the pace and numbers of shots were as expected, and it took a miracle OT at the buzzer to cost me the win, but it is a long season, and I generally overcome these bad beats...

If Golden State covers though, Minny may not as I am not sure if both 4-of-5 games will come in tonight...Hope it does comes in, though, obviously...

I did make a play for Wednesday already:
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Wednesday, November 8

N.Y. Knicks/Denver over 208 -- $525 to win $500

I guess I could have waited a few more minutes as the juice has moved even lower on the Over due to the announcement that Steve Francis is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain...This doesn't bother me a bit...With Stevie Franchise playing the first half against SA, the 1H stayed Under (all 4 Knicks games have stayed Under in the 1H and all 4 have gone Over in the 2H -- 1 was OT-aided) and in the 2H against SA, Francis was in street clothes and the Knicks scored plenty without him and earned the Over for the game without him playing...Thee Knicks have plenty of scorers, their problem is defense...Denver, NY and Phoenix have the 3 fastest-paced teams in the league and when any 2 of these 3 teams are playing each other this season, the total should not be less than 220...The Knicks have shot terribly EVERY game this season and yet still have 3 Overs (1 was OT-aided) out of 4 games...Denver shot 50% against Minny on November 3 and the total hit 221 and the T'Wolves certainly have a better defense than the Knicks...With a total of 208 and the pace this game should be at, if these teams just shoot about 46% or 47% for the game, this should go Over without too much problem...I thought about betting more, but with Francis out, I'll leave it at $500 as I would be shocked not to see this game hit 220...

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