TP's NCAA Plays for 11/11

[Tomorrows Paper]

Just getting these out early. I would doubt if any of these lines move against me, but even if they do, I like all these numbers pretty well.

NCAA Plays (46-36-4, +16.68)
3* Texas A&M -1.5 (-102)
2* Florida State -5.5 (-110)
2* Georgia +13 (-105)

[BettorsChat]

gl Anthony

[Tomorrows Paper]

Here's everything. Big card, I know, but I think is value across the board. As the year progresses, I think it is wise to play games soon after they open, simply because the lines start getting really tight by Tuesday. I'll come back Thursday or Friday and give a little insight into why I played these games.

4* SMU +7 (-105)
4* Alabama +17 (-108)
3* Texas A&M -1.5 (-102)
3* New Mexico +6.5 (-105)
3* Oklahoma -8.5 (-109)
2* Florida State -5.5 (-110)
2* Georgia +13 (-105)
2* Illinois -1.5 (-106)
2* Kansas State +17.5 (-105)
1* Rice +14 (-108)

[Spiccoli]

Georgia line will rise...+14 is just around the corner.

I definitely like Georgia and would not be surprised if they win straight up.

[Lanai]

to the front page

[MRhotPICKS]

gl to ya TP!!

[jcindaville]

Best of luck Mr Paper

[Tomorrows Paper]

Well, looks like I got a great line on SMU, a couple not so great lines, and good lines on all 2 unit plays.

NCAA Plays (46-36-4, +16.68)
4* SMU +7 (-105)
Well, this line is currently in the 4.5/5 region, and I think it’s with good reason. Southern Methodist University still has the reputation of being a losing program, but the fact is that Phil Bennett has come into Dallas and made this team legitimate. Actually, SMU controls its own destiny in the C-USA West, playing Houston and Tulsa at home the next two weeks. While winning both would seem like a longshot, SMU won at Houston last season and only lost by 7 at Tulsa. So, this team certainly has the ability to win here, and they have been very strong at home, having won six in a row SU and covering all five of those that were lined (other was against Sam Houston State).
This play is also a solid fade of Houston, who comes into this game off a win as a home dog against Tulsa. The Cougs could enter this one a little flat, but frankly, I think if both teams play their A games, SMU is still very likely to win. The Mustangs allow under 100 yards per game rushing, and Houston has been at its best when they run the ball. While QB Kolb receives all the publicity, he can’t do it all by himself, as was evidenced by losses to Louisiana-Lafayette and Southern Miss. In fact, Houston has only played three road games, going 1-2, with the lone win by 1 point at Rice.
The whole SMU team played poorly last time out, especially QB Willis, who is blossoming into a special player. The Mustangs still found a way to win 22-9 against UAB. They’ll bring a better effort to the table this week, especially on extra rest and in front of the homecoming crowd. While there is a step up in class here, this line is a little inflated by one shining performance from Houston, and I think SMU is likely to not only cover, but win outright.

4* Alabama +17 (-108)
I’m going to be honest. I don’t understand why this line opened 17, and I don’t understand why it is rising. Maybe that should scare me, but getting this number of points is insane. I was really hoping to be catching 14 here. When I saw 17, I jumped on it, and amazingly it has gone up even more.
I do understand the overreaction to last week’s performance, but a lot of people saw that performance coming from MSU and Bama (not trying to brag, but that was at the top of my card). The game meant everything to Croom’s boys, and nothing to Alabama. Here is the exact opposite. Shula is suddenly sitting on an incredibly hot seat, his players are embarrassed, and Alabama has to pull an upset one of the last two weeks to avoid being 6-6. Meanwhile, LSU could come in feeling satisfied with the win over Tennessee, and they will be scoreboard watching (they need an Arkansas loss to maintain hope of winning the SEC West). They also face the most balanced offense they will face this year, as Alabama has solid running backs, a decent QB, but most importantly they have fantastic receivers - Keith Brown is back, Hall is a stud, and the others are pretty solid - who could exploit the only weakness in LSU’s defense, which is a lack of depth in the secondary.
Also, we know how terrible Alabama is as a favorite, and how strong they are as a dog. Alabama has only been a double digit dog 10 times in the past 10 years. How many did they not cover? One. Also, the favorite has only covered once in an Alabama game this season. Alabama has played three games as an underdog, all on the road, and the Tide have had the lead in the fourth quarter of each game, finding a way to blow the win, but not the cover, in each of those games. The visitor also owns this series, to the tune of 11-2-1 ATS in recent years.
Alabama has a top 15 defense, and they haven’t given up more than 28 points in over three years. They may not even have to score to cover, and 10 points or so should be enough.

3* Texas A&M -1.5 (-102)
Texas A&M features a nice offensive balance behind QB McGee and two very talented running backs - powerful Lane and quick Goodson - and Nebraska has had trouble stopping balanced offenses this season. Then we consider that College Station is one of the more difficult road games in the land and Nebraska has had next to no success away from home this season (2-2, with blowout losses at Southern Cal and Oklahoma State, and wins over Iowa State and Kansas State), and I think A&M is more than likely going to win this game.
Uncharacteristically of a Dennis Franchione team (this guy is a bum), the Aggies have a lot of heart - five straight covers, despite being outplayed in some of those games. That should be enough to win this one against a Nebraska team that is almost guaranteed to come flat after all but clinching the Big 12 North last week with win over rival Missouri.

3* New Mexico +6.5 (-105)
This line is pretty much up to 7.5/8 across the board, and I just don’t get it. This game is a toss up to me, and frankly that’s being generous to a TCU team that is living off its fantastic season last year. Remember, they were really good? Well, they aren’t anymore.
TCU has played four road games. They had a joke cover at Baylor, in a game they probably should have lost outright, got hammered at Utah, and won by 14 and 15 at terrible Army and UNLV teams. They now face a New Mexico team that is playing at its peak level, having won three in a row and covered four in a row, which basically has coincided with Rocky Long‘s decision to move Donovan Porterie to QB.
Speaking of Long, since he has come to New Mexico, the Lobos are 13-8 as home dogs. What I really like is that they are 9-0 SU and ATS after a bye week. Dating back even further, they have covered 13 in a row off a bye. That tells me the coaching staff knows what they’re doing, and they will have New Mexico prepared for this game against a team they could have beaten last season on the road. A -5 turnover margin killed them in that one, but I don’t expect that to happen this season against a much inferior TCU team.

3* Oklahoma -8.5 (-109)
I think revenge is often overrated by bettors. With that said, I don’t think enough emphasis can be placed on it here. You may remember the controversial Texas Tech win last year, because of a series of terrible calls on the final TT drive. You can bet Stoops and company remember.
Anyway, that was then, this is now. That game was played in Lubbock, this one is in Norman, and this year, Oklahoma owns the line of scrimmage. It looks like Jarrett Hicks may not play, and the last road game he missed was a 30-6 loss at Colorado. Stoops has actually known how to defend the unorthodox Leach attack since Leach left OU, and the Sooner defense has been dominant since the injury to AD (9.5 points per game in 4 games).
I hate laying 8.5 points, but when I get a hot team with the better offensive line, defense, running game, who is playing at home with meaningful revenge against a bad road team that may be missing its best player, I have to make a play.

2* Florida State -5.5 (-110)
This line is all the way up to 9, and that’s too high for me to recommend playing the Seminoles. Still, I think the fact that Wake is playing their first meaningful November road game probably ever actually works against them. Then you take a look at the talent and speed difference in these teams, and consider what Xavier Lee has done since taking over for Weatherford, and I think FSU is still the only play at the current number. I’d personally pass, just because Wake has been a fantastic dog under Grobe, and, while Wake hasn’t won in Tallahassee in 50 years, that’s a lot more relevant when the line is below 7.

2* Georgia +13 (-105)
Auburn has looked bad three times this season. Once was on Thursday night when they were taken to the wire by a highly underrated South Carolina squad. The other two were early starts on Saturday mornings, and that is when they play Georgia this week. Just a thought.
What I really like is that everyone has given up on this Georgia team, and while they aren’t likely to win this game, they have been a great dog under Richt - including 8-3-1 ATS as road dogs. Very similar spot for Georgia to a couple weeks ago when they played Florida. Georgia played poorly in that one, losing the turnover battle by 3, and still only lost by 7 to a team of comparable talent to Auburn.
Then you consider that Auburn doesn’t have an explosive offense (as evidenced by their 0-6 ATS run as a double digit favorite) - what points they do score will come on longer drives - and the Auburn defense is vulnerable to teams that run it right at their small front 4, which Lumpkin can do. Richt will use a conservative game plan, which is always nice when you’re catching 13 points, and this could be a low-scoring game of field goals.

2* Illinois -1.5 (-106)
Most books are currently running 2.5 or 3. I wouldn’t lay 3, but I would still recommend a play at -2.5 (-110) or better. Now, I realize that Illinois is 2-8 and Purdue is 6-4, but I think - as do the odds makers evidently - that Illinois is the superior team, and certainly the one in better form at the current moment.
I know that a lot of people have criticized Ron Zook in the past, but he has done a fine job with Illinois. The fact that he doesn’t have any pressure on him has really helped, and now he has a defense that is good enough to make his team competitive in the Big 10. That defense figures to continue to sparkle against a Purdue offense that was supposedly good, and looked that way in non-conference. However, since entering conference play, Purdue has topped 17 points only once in five games (at Northwestern). The main reason is they haven’t been able to run the ball at all, and that won’t change this week. Painter is going to have to do it by himself, and I don’t know that he can.
The Purdue defense is still among the worst in the Big 10, and should be exposed by a suddenly strong Illinois running game spearheaded by sensational freshman Juice Williams and senior Pierre Thomas. It takes guts to lay points with Illinois, but that’s the play here.

2* Kansas State +17.5 (-105)
This Kansas State team might be the most underrated team in the country. This team just fights and fights no matter how outmatched they are, but they’ve got talent as well. Kudos to Ron Prince for building this team into one that can compete in this type of game in his first year in Manhattan. With all the heart his team has shown, I think they are the perfect dog. Plus, in the Longhorns last four games, they have faced three teams that pass the ball almost every play, and one balanced offense in Nebraska. They get a smash mouth team here, and one that has discovered a passing game based on short passes and playaction, which means they can run clock and shorten the game. That’s what I like when I’m getting this many points.
I’m not going to say too much bad about Texas, other than I’m not drinking the Colt McCoy Kool-Aid as much as some, but they did almost lose their other two conference road games, covering neither.

1* Rice +14 (-108)
Hell, how can I not? This team has been golden for me, and the fact of the matter is that they continue to be undervalued. As long as Chase Clement is playing quarterback and Jarrett Dillard is playing receiver, this team is going to be able to score. The defense isn’t great, but Rice head coach Todd Graham has been at Tulsa the past couple years, so he has an intricate knowledge of the Tulsa system. Tulsa has only had one good quarter in its last eight (the fourth quarter against UTEP) and Rice has heart, more talent than most people realize, and a lot to play for - their first .500 or better season since 2001 is a distinct possibility.

Adding a play:
2* Michigan State ML +118
It might not seem like much, but Michigan State is the best Senior Day team in the nation. They are 13-1-1 ATS in their last home game (with the lone miss by 0.5 point). Now, that alone isn’t enough to play them, but I’m thinking the Spartans send Stanton, Smith, and company out with a win. The main reason is what Minnesota has done on the road. Since covering opening week at Kent State, Minnesota has played four road games. The Gophers are 0-4 SU and ATS in those games, with the combined score being 161-50. Now, MSU isn’t as good as any of those four teams except Purdue, but they do average more yards per game (363-360) and allow fewer (367-411) than Minnesota. Bad combination for a road favorite, especially one that can’t play on the November road (3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS). My opinion is that Minnesota is inflated off the blowout home win over Indiana, and they come into this one as a false favorite.

[longnex]

good luck

[weazel079]

thanks for the time and effort writing up the games. Good luck TP

[BigJake]

Best of Luck on the foots this Saturday Tomorrow's Paper. Like your writeups too. Good to see some thought going into your picks.
BJ

[Spiccoli]

Let's do this.

[Moose21]

Good Luck T.P.

[vondie]

I'm a sucker for write up's....Nail those games TP

[shoeman530]

Good luck tp