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NCAA Plays (40-33-4, +4.76)
This game sets up so well for Louisville, in my opinion. While neither team has really faced much in terms of opposition, Louisville did face the one opponent that people thought could give them troubles, Miami, and easily dispatched them 31-7 without the two players that everyone said would be the key to this team. Now, Brohm is back, and the word out of Louisville is that he is finally healthy.
Everyone points to the Cincinatti game (23-17 win) that Louisville doesn't have the power to hang with West Virginia. Well, the most important thing about that is that it was Brohm's first game back. Now he has settled in, and has had extra time to prepare for this West Virginia defense that is actually softer than either of the teams he has played since coming back. The numbers show WVU as having a quality defense, but East Carolina has the best offense they have faced, and they are #44 in the country. The simple fact is that I have watched WVU play in person, and the secondary is incapable of covering decent receivers, and the 3-3-5 scheme makes them incredibly vulnerable to any good running attack.
Every time you turn on ESPN, you see Slaton and White running for 150 yards and three touchdowns. I'm not saying those kids aren't great players, but WVU has only played one team ranked in the top 90 in rush defense (Mississippi State - 46th). No one has made them pass the ball, but Louisville will. The Cardinals are allowing under 100 rushing yards at home, at 3.0 yards per carry. I'm not saying they'll completely take away the WVU running game, but they can at least slow it down. Pat White cannot throw the ball at all, and I think that will be the ultimate difference in this game.
Louisville doesn't have the biggest stadium in college football, but they do have one of the largest home field advantages. Home teams have had success on Thursday night all year (12-2 ATS) and it's always difficult to go into Papa John's and get a win - Louisville has won 16 in a row at home, and is 13-3 ATS in that span. The last time Louisville played on a Thursday night, the final was 56-5. Tonight won't be that lopsided, but with the public seemingly all over WVU, and my line on this game Louisville -5, I have to pull the trigger, and pull it pretty hard.
5* Louisville ML -109
This game sets up so well for Louisville, in my opinion. While neither team has really faced much in terms of opposition, Louisville did face the one opponent that people thought could give them troubles, Miami, and easily dispatched them 31-7 without the two players that everyone said would be the key to this team. Now, Brohm is back, and the word out of Louisville is that he is finally healthy.
Everyone points to the Cincinatti game (23-17 win) that Louisville doesn't have the power to hang with West Virginia. Well, the most important thing about that is that it was Brohm's first game back. Now he has settled in, and has had extra time to prepare for this West Virginia defense that is actually softer than either of the teams he has played since coming back. The numbers show WVU as having a quality defense, but East Carolina has the best offense they have faced, and they are #44 in the country. The simple fact is that I have watched WVU play in person, and the secondary is incapable of covering decent receivers, and the 3-3-5 scheme makes them incredibly vulnerable to any good running attack.
Every time you turn on ESPN, you see Slaton and White running for 150 yards and three touchdowns. I'm not saying those kids aren't great players, but WVU has only played one team ranked in the top 90 in rush defense (Mississippi State - 46th). No one has made them pass the ball, but Louisville will. The Cardinals are allowing under 100 rushing yards at home, at 3.0 yards per carry. I'm not saying they'll completely take away the WVU running game, but they can at least slow it down. Pat White cannot throw the ball at all, and I think that will be the ultimate difference in this game.
Louisville doesn't have the biggest stadium in college football, but they do have one of the largest home field advantages. Home teams have had success on Thursday night all year (12-2 ATS) and it's always difficult to go into Papa John's and get a win - Louisville has won 16 in a row at home, and is 13-3 ATS in that span. The last time Louisville played on a Thursday night, the final was 56-5. Tonight won't be that lopsided, but with the public seemingly all over WVU, and my line on this game Louisville -5, I have to pull the trigger, and pull it pretty hard.
5* Louisville ML -109
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