Sunday Trends and Indexes 10/29

[djmauiboy]

Pro Hockey Trend Report
SAN JOSE (7-4-0-0, 14 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (5-5-0-0, 10 pts.) - 10/29/2006, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 10-1 ATS (+8.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 1-0-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.1 Units)




MINNESOTA (9-1-0-0, 18 pts.) at COLORADO (4-4-0-2, 10 pts.) - 10/29/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.6 Units) first half of the season this season.
MINNESOTA is 24-13 ATS (+37.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
COLORADO is 228-200 ATS (+228.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.
COLORADO is 84-85 ATS (-98.9 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
COLORADO is 60-60 ATS (-65.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
COLORADO is 49-53 ATS (-67.4 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 5-4 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 5-4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units

[Udog]

NFL

Line Watch

Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-4 to -9)

Uncertainty at the quarterback position plays a role in a jumpy line for the Jacksonville Jaguars yet again. Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service in Las Vegas, says his group pegged the Philadelphia Eagles as 4 ½-point home favorites early in the week when Byron Leftwich was the projected starter.

It became clear as the week passed that David Garrard would take the snaps for the Jags and bettors reacted by pounding the Eagles, driving the spread comfortably past the touchdown mark, far further than Korner thought it would go. Most books have it at 7 ½, but 5Dimes had it at -9 at noon on Saturday.

”I think Philadelphia is overvalued with where the line is now,” Korner says. “Jacksonville is a good team and they are capable of winning this game because Garrard is a quality back-up.”

St. Louis at San Diego (total 42 to 45 ½)

After allowing less than 20 points in each of their first five games this year, the San Diego Chargers conceded 30 to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, a likely factor driving the total for Sunday’s meeting with the St. Louis Rams past 45.

It could also be the fact that the Rams gave up 30 themselves in their last game, and 34 to the Lions two weeks before that. Not awe-inspiring number from the defense.

Either way, Stephen Jackson will have to do his best Larry Johnson imitation against the Chargers for a repeat of the high-scoring antics seen in Kansas City last week.

Indianapolis at Denver (total 37 to 40)

The Denver Broncos have played six games this year, and the total points scored in those games has yet to top 28. Yet that didn’t stop bettors from pounding the over as Peyton Manning brings the Indianapolis Colts’ air show to the Mile High City.

The Colts’ offense isn’t enough to guarantee an ‘over’. With their defense showing up to play occasionally, Indianapolis sits at 3-3 in Over/Under plays.

Korner’s group called for an opening total ranging from from 35 to 41. The group finally settled on 38, but Korner knows that the key for the total at kickoff is the weather in Denver.

“If the weather isn’t a factor, I could see the total at 42 tomorrow,” Korner says, “if it is going to be an issue, the total could be as low as 35 tomorrow.”

Check the Denver forecast on the *********** matchup page, and make your call accordingly.

Dallas at Carolina (-3, 36 ½ to -5, 41)

The big news from the Big D this week was, of course, Tony Romo taking over as the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys for this Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers.

Korner said his group pegged the opening line at -4 ½, before head coach Bill Parcells officially announced the change. The consultant adds that Romo’s playing time last Monday is a significant factor in the spread not being as narrow as it currently is.

“I think it’s tremendous help for Dallas heading into this week that Romo played last weekend,” Korner says. “I think the he might be able to spark the offense, he’s certainly more mobile than [Drew] Bledsoe.”

New England at Minnesota (+3, 36 to +1, 38 ½)

The Monday night game sees the New England Patriots having their favored status chipped away slowly-but-surely by the Minnesota Vikings. The books originally pegged the Pats as favorites by a field goal, but the flood of money on Minny dropped the spread below the 3-point barrier by Monday.

Last weekend’s rout in Seattle obviously bought the Vikings a lot of support. The offensive line looked dominant against last year’s NFC champs as the 6-point dogs cruised to an 18-point win.

Korner’s group was among the masses starting the game at +3 but admits that it could have easily been a pick’em with the Vikings playing at home.

“Either team could easily win this game and that’s always advantageous for the books,” Korner says.

The Patriots have won three straight games by double-digits but failed to cover the spread in its two early away games.

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Hockey

Dunkel Index – NHL

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 29

Minnesota at Colorado
Minnesota enters tonight's contest with a three-game winning streak and goalie Manny Fernandez on top of his game. Fernandez has allowed only seven goals over his last six games, while the Wild have killed off 32 straight penalties as a team. Colorado has been subpar at home (2-3-1) and is coming off a 5-3 loss to Washington on Wednesday. Minnesota's tight defense makes them a solid underdog play in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored straight up by 2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games:

Game 51-52: San Jose at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.656; Tampa Bay 11.568
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1 1/2); Under

Game 53-54: Minnesota at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 13.681; Colorado 11.756
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2); Neutral

[Udog]

NFL

Weather Watch

Tampa Bay at New York Giants (-9 ½, total set at 38 ½)

Site: Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Stadium style: Enclosed seating, FieldTurf surface.

It could be a very windy day in East Rutherford, according to weather forecasts.

Winds traveling 25-35 miles per hour are expected and could occasionally gust over 40 mph. This could seriously hamper the Giants aerial attack, since their passing game consists of a lot of downfield throws by Eli Manning that probably won`t work in high wind.

“I definitely wasn`t too thrilled to hear (the forecast),” Giants receiver Plaxico Burress told Newsday. “Now we`ll just have to get some 10, 15-yard catches and turn them into 40-yard gains instead of throwing it deep.”

But even if heavy winds do limit their passing attempts, the Giants still have the league’s No. 2 ranked running game, averaging 152.3 yards a game on the ground.

Game-time temperature is expected to be in the low 50s (Fahrenheit), with maximum humidity at 46 percent. There is just a 20 percent chance of precipitation.

Arizona at Green Bay (-4, total set at 44 ½)

Site: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Stadium style: Enclosed seating; grass surface.

Forecasts are calling for a windy Sunday afternoon in Green Bay.

Winds between 15 and 20 mph are expected in Green Bay at kickoff and are likely to persist throughout the game. This could effect both team’s kicking and passing attempts, although it goes without saying that Packers QB Brett Favre is more accustomed to playing in windy conditions at Lambeau than Arizona quarterback Matt Leinart.

Game-time temperature is expected to be in the mid-40s, with maximum humidity at 51 percent.

Forecasts call for sunny skies and only a 10 percent chance of precipitation.

Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-7 ½, total set at 39)

Site: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Stadium style: Primarily enclosed seating; upper corners of north end zone open; grass surface.

Forecasts are calling for winds traveling west between 20 and 20 mph at kickoff, and occasionally gusting over 40 mph.

Quarterbacks and kickers may be limited today, with extra emphasis on each side’s running game a possibility.

Game time temperature is expected to be in the low 50s with maximum humidity at 42 percent. There is just a 10 percent chance of precipitation.

New York Jets at Cleveland (-1, total set at 37)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio.

Stadium style: Primarily enclosed seating, three of four corners open: grass surface.

Forecasts are predicting winds traveling 25-35 mph in Cleveland this afternoon, occasionally gusting to more than 40 mph.

There is a 20 percent chance of precipitation, with game-time temperature expected to be in the high 40s. Maximum humidity will be at 55 percent.

As with other games today, these teams may have to rely more on rushing the ball than throwing it in such windy conditions.

Indianapolis at Denver (-3, total set at 40)

Site: Invesco Field in Denver, Colorado.

Stadium style: Enclosed seating; grass surface.

High winds could affect this game as well, according to weather forecasts.

Winds traveling between 10 and 20 mph are expected in Denver late this afternoon, with the game-time temperature expected in the mid-50s. Maximum humidity will be 53 percent, and there is a zero percent chance of precipitation.