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Trends and Indexes for Sunday, October 22 
Have a great Sunday!
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Trends and Indexes for Sunday, October 22
Have a great Sunday! -
Dunkel Index - College Football
Dunkel Index – NCAA Football
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22
Game 233-234: South Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 88.337; Cincinnati 86.384
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+1 1/2); Neutral -
Dunkel Index - Pro Football
Dunkel Index - NFL
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22
Game 209-210: San Diego at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.521; Kansas City 126.330
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 12; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-5); Over
Game 211-212: Jacksonville at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 132.164; Houston 118.245
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 14; 43
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-9 1/2); Over
Game 213-214: New England at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: New England 131.540; Buffalo 127.004
Dunkel Line: New England by 4 1/2; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: New England by 5 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+5 1/2); Over
Game 215-216: Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.403; Atlanta 133.097
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under
Game 217-218: Green Bay at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 121.446; Miami 122.678
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 36
Vegas Line: Miami by 5; 40
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+5); Under
Game 219-220: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 128.809; Tampa Bay 125.740
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 38
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+5 1/2); Under
Game 221-222: Detroit at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 119.890; NY Jets 124.520
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3 1/2); Under
Game 223-224: Carolina at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 127.928; Cincinnati 132.248
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3); Under
Game 225-226: Denver at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.013; Cleveland 122.009
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 31 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2); Under
Game 227-228: Washington at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.683; Indianapolis 132.478
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9); Under
Game 229-230: Minnesota at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.931; Seattle 130.279
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Over
Game 231-232: Arizona at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.102; Oakland 123.923
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 37 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Under
MONDAY, OCTOBER 23
Game 235-236: NY Giants at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 134.243; Dallas 133.618
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); UnderComment
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Sunday, October 22nd
San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 7-0 Under away vs. division opponents
Kansas City: 18-7 ATS off a road loss by 14+ points
Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 12-3 Under off BB games scoring 25+ points
Houston: 1-5 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points
New England at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
New England: 11-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Buffalo: 5-0 Under off a loss as a favorite
Pittsburgh at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 7-0 ATS away off a win by 14+ points
Atlanta: 5-15 ATS off a home game
Green Bay at Miami, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 22-10 Over off BB losses
Miami: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 4-0 ATS off BB Overs
Tampa Bay: 9-2 Under at home off a win
Detroit at NY Jets, 1:00 EST
Detroit: 4-13 ATS away off a win as an underdog
NY Jets: 8-0 Over off a division game
Carolina at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 12-3 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 2-8 ATS in October
Denver at Cleveland, 4:05 EST
Denver: 6-0 ATS off a divison win
Cleveland: 9-2 Under at home off a road game
Washington at Indianapolis, 4:15 EST
Washington: 14-4 Under off an ATS loss
Indianapolis: 1-4 ATS vs. Washington
Minnesota at Seattle, 4:15 EST
Minnesota: 12-4 ATS vs. conference opponents
Seattle: 3-11 ATS off a division game
Arizona at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Arizona: 9-1 Over in October
Oakland: 0-6 ATS as a home underdog
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, October 23rd
NY Giants at Dallas, 8:30 EST ESPN
NY Giants: 35-16 Under off a win by 10+ points
Dallas: 2-11 ATS off a win by 28+ points
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
NFL Week 6 Bye Week:
Baltimore, Chicago, New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis, TennesseeComment
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Pro Football Trend Report
SAN DIEGO (4 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 3) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE (3 - 2) at HOUSTON (1 - 4) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) at BUFFALO (2 - 4) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH (2 - 3) at ATLANTA (3 - 2) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
GREEN BAY (1 - 4) at MIAMI (1 - 5) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
PHILADELPHIA (4 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 4) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 107-75 ATS (+24.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DETROIT (1 - 5) at NY JETS (3 - 3) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CAROLINA (4 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2) - 10/22/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DENVER (4 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 4) - 10/22/2006, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
WASHINGTON (2 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 0) - 10/22/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MINNESOTA (3 - 2) at SEATTLE (4 - 1) - 10/22/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-38 ATS (-25.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA (1 - 5) at OAKLAND (0 - 5) - 10/22/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 18-41 ATS (-27.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NY GIANTS (3 - 2) at DALLAS (3 - 2) - 10/23/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasonsComment
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2006 Week 7 NFL
Chargers (4-1) @ Chiefs (2-3)-San Diego lost eight of last nine visits to Arrowhead, winning 34-31 two years ago, but this Charger team is rolling behind first-year starting QB Rivers. Since going 2-13 on third down in 16-13 loss at Ravens, Bolts are 21-31 on third down- they're 3rd in NFL, winning 58.6% of all third down plays and are 2-1 on road. Chiefs are 0-3 if they score less than 23 pts; they've been minus in turnovers in four of their five games. SD defense forcing 3/outs on 45.3% of drives, top % in NFL. Huard still filling in for injured QB Green; they have total of 77 rushing yards in last two games.
Jaguars (3-2) @ Texans (1-4)- Houston fans can't be real happy, with Vince Young, Reggie Bush both contributing to their new teams, while Texans are last in NFL in 3rd down defense (53.5%), last in black zone defense (allowed five TD drives of 80+ yards, 2.93 ppp), and have allowed 17 TDs, while forcing just 9 3/outs and three turnovers. Jags are 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road; they split their four visits to Houston, winning by 3,18 points. Texans scored 12.7 ppg in last three games, scoring four TDs on 27 drives; they don't have takeaway in last two games (-5 TO's) and have been outscored 47-19 in second half of last four games.
Patriots (4-1) @ Bills (2-4)-First rematch of season; Patriots snuck by Buffalo 19-17 at home in Week 1, coming back from 17-7 halftime deficit and surviving -2 turnover ratio. Pats outrushed Bills 183-99 in beating Buffalo for sixth straight time and 11th in last 12 meetings. Bills rank 30th in 3rd down conversions (27.8%), as Losman not making plays to move chains, which is part of why Buffalo hasn't had edge in field position since Week 2 win at Miami. Patriots are 2-0 on road, beating Jets, Bengals; in their last two games, they started six drives in enemy territory, scoring 38 of the 58 points they got in those two wins.
Steelers (2-3) @ Falcons (3-2)- In their last four games, Atlanta scored 14-3-32-14 points, as poor play in red zone (2.65 ppp, last in NFL) highlighted by Vick's inaccurate pocket passing (39-80 last three games). Falcons ran ball for 223+ yards in four of five games, but Steelers allowing 78.4 rushing yds/game. Pittsburgh is 11-1-1 vs Atlanta; last meeting was wild 34-all tie at Heinz in '02- this is first time Steelers visited Atlanta in 13 years (5-1 there). Four of five Atlanta games stayed under total, partly because they have only seven TDs on 52 drives, while trying sixteen FGs.
Packers (1-4) @ Dolphins (1-5)-Green Bay won Super Bowl II in Miami, but have never beaten Dolphins in Miami (0-6, last visit '00), as home side won five of last six series games. Pack off its bye; they're -5 in turnovers (29th), -27 in IPs (T29th), and are scoring just 3.79 pts/red zone drive (also 29th), so rookie-laden OL struggling and defense has allowed 27.4 ppg- they've yet to hold opponent under 7.0 yds/pass. Harrington 0-2 as Miami QB, but he threw for 199 yards in 4th quarter comeback try that fell short in Swamp last week. Four of last five Miami games stayed under, with 22-23 pts scored in two home games this season.
Eagles (4-2) @ Buccaneers (1-4)-- Philly 2-1 on road after tough loss at Saints, when NO held ball for last 8:26 of game, before kicking winning FG. Eagles scoring 29.8 ppg, lot of firepower for young Bucs (rookie QB, three rookies on OL) to match. Philly has scored 3+ offensive TDs in all six games- they're 4-0 if they allow less than 27 pts, a number Bucs can only dream about. Tampa got first win last week, thanks to replay review and horrible roughing passer call; Gradkowski has been OK in two games at QB (45-76/393, one INT) and Tampa has run ball better since their bye (43.4 before, 156.5 since). Last three Buc games were decided by total of six points.
Lions (1-5) @ Jets (3-3)-Gang Green 3-0 if they allow 20 or less points; they gave up 24-31-41 in its losses. Jets allowed 157.2 rushing yds/game over last five weeks, so Detroit offense that ran ball for 132 yards in first win last week (had been averaging 58.6 rushing yds/game) should move chains here, but Martz' offense 29th in NFL on third down (28.2%), 29th in giveaways (13). Lions are 0-3 on road, allowing 33.7 ppg, with losses by 27-7-9 pts. Lions won four of last five series games, winning last two at this site. All six Jet games this season have gone over the total, as have four of last five Lion games.
Panthers (4-2) @ Bengals (3-2)- Cincinnati scored 28.3 ppg in winning first three games, but scored 13 pts in each of last two, both losses; with bye in middle, its been almost month since they've won. If you take away 13 drives they forced turnovers on, Bengals allowing TDs on 27.9% of remaining drives, a high number. Palmer has converted on just five of last 25 third down plays. Carolina won four games in row since Smith got back in lineup; they averaged 3.5/4.7 yds/pass with #89 out of lineup, but have been 6.4/5.2/5.6/8.9 with him back. Carolina last in NFL on third down (24.3%). This is Panthers' first visit to Queen City.
Broncos (4-1) @ Browns (1-4)-Broncos' first trip to Lake Erie since '93; if old Browns could have beaten Denver in playoffs, they would have played in Super Bowl or two and likely never would have bolted for Baltimore. Anyway, Denver defense has allowed one TD on 50 drives, an amazing figure, but has also forced just 11 3/outs (30th) so teams moving ball on Denver, just not scoring. All five Denver games stayed under total, since 4-1 Broncos scoring just 12.4 ppg. Cleveland is 0-2 at home, scoring 14 pts in pair of close losses; they've gone 3/out on 41.7% of drives (30th)- their -8 turnover ratio ranks 31st in NFL (six takeaways, 14 turnovers).
Redskins (2-4) @ Colts (5-0)-Unbeaten Indy off bye; they have one win by more than seven points (43-24 vs Houston) but their offense is still sharp, scoring TDs on 31.9% of drives (1st), while going 3/out on just 6-47 drives (12.8%, 1st). Colts may sign WR Proehl to replace injured Stokely, one of Manning's favorite 3rd down WRs. Redskins have no takeaways in last two games; they're 0-2 on artificial turf this season, scoring zero TDs on 19 drives in those two games. Washington scored 31,36 pts in their wins, an average of 12.8 ppg in losses. Last six series totals were all 45+; three of last four Redskin games went over the total.
Vikings (3-2) @ Seahawks (4-1)- Viking G Hutchinson returns to face former mates with Minnesota squad whose losses are by 3,5 points. Minnesota coach Childress came from Philly- Eagles are one of NFL's best after a bye, so we'll see if he learned anything from Reid on that front. Seattle's comeback last week keeps them atop NFC West, but they have to be alarmed to be outscored 41-13 in first half of their last two games, and have Rams almost beat them when Hawks won turnover battle, but they are 2-0 at home, beating Falcons (21-10), Giants (42-30). Surprising that Seattle has worst red zone defense in NFL (5.91 ppp).
Arizona (1-5) @ Oakland (0-5)- Matt Leinart can kiss Coliseum turf when he looks across field and sees the team that passed on him. Then again, he's a Cardinal. Redbirds are road favorite, six days after losing game they led 23-3 with 15:05 left, without other team's offense scoring a point; they also fired their offensive coordinator Tuesday. The chaos almost makes them as horrible as the Raiders, who tried hard in nationally-televised loss to the Broncos last week, but still lost by 10. Hard to say anything good about either side here, other than Cardinal defense is OK (13 takeaways). Oakland has had 55 drives this year, scoring four TDs, trying six FGs and going 3/out 27 freakin' times.
Giants (3-2) @ Cowboys (3-2)- Big Blue 8-4 in last 12 games vs Cowboys, 3-3 vs Parcells, with two of Tuna's three wins in OT. Giants played two sound games since bye; neither Redskins or Falcons snapped ball in Giant red zone. Since allowing 35 first half points in Seattle, Giants have outscored foes 73-24 in 10 quarters. Dallas allowed 24,38 pts in their losses, 10-14-6 in the wins. Giants scored 30-30-27 pts in their three road games. Media loves to kill Bledsoe, but Dallas offense ranks 3rd on third down (42.7%), 4th in red zone (5.37), T2nd in TDs (16); only Eagles (21) have scored more TDs. Giants split their last six visits to this site. Not sure what effect Barber's bizarre declaration that he might be retiring will have on the team.Comment
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---------------------------------------Originally posted by pm530
Sunday, October 22nd
South Florida at Cincinnati, 8:00 EST ESPN
South Florida: 6-0 ATS off an Over
Cincinnati: 14-4 Under as a favorite
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S FLORIDA (5 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 4) - 10/22/2006, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasonsComment
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NFL
Six-Pack for Sunday
-- Lions are 6-13-1 vs spread on road vs AFC teams.
-- Carolina is 16-6-1 vs spread as a road underdog.
-- Patriots are 24-10-1 vs spread in divisional games.
-- Jacksonville is 2-8-1 vs spread as AFC South road fave.
-- Miami covered two of last 17 as a home favorite.
-- San Diego covered 17 of last 22 as a road favorite.Comment
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NFL
Week 7 Line Moves
Detroit at New York Jets (total 39 to 43)
What do you get when two teams combine for 10 `over` plays in their 12 games? Apparently a four-point jump in the total from all the bettors jumping on the bandwagon.
”Absolutely,” says Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service in Las Vegas, noting that his group had pegged the total between 36 and 39. “The teams’ over/under records were probably the biggest influence [on the jump].”
One note for bettors eyeing the total: the New York Jets may be 6-0 O/U, but four of those game would have played under this week’s current total of 43.
Green Bay at Miami (-3 ½ to –5 ½)
This line has been all over the board at the various books this week and Korner’s group originally had Miami anywhere from –3 to –6.
One thing bettors seem to agree on is that Zach Thomas was wrong when he told reporters after last week’s game that the Miami Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. The widening spread suggests that the Green Bay Packers might be worse.
“All the Miami money,” Korner says ruefully, perhaps more convinced by Thomas than the public. “I don’t know if they deserve it.”
Pittsburgh at Atlanta (+1 ½ to +3)
Most books have the Atlanta Falcons dogged by 2 ½ points at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Bodog.com among others bumped the spread to an even 3 late in the week.
Korner admits that his group had the Falcons favored by a point or two prior to last Sunday’s results, and that edge arose solely to home-field advantage. Then Pittsburgh won 45-7 and Atlanta lost 27-14 and the line appeared as people may have imagined it would have back in August.
Denver at Cleveland (+6 to +4 ½; total 33 ½ to 31 ½)
The Denver Broncos’ inability (or unwillingness) to score at will against Oakland last Sunday seems to have finally cemented to books and bettors alike that the Broncos and double-digit spreads mix like rum and rotten milk.
”Denver just can’t score,” Korner says, “and Cleveland is better than Oakland.”
A total of 31 ½ seems low but might be warranted in the Dawg Pound on Sunday. The Broncos haven’t had a game top 28 points this year while the Browns home games have averaged a total of 31 points.
Washington at Indianapolis (-10 to –8 ½)
The Indianapolis Colts have let backers down as a heavy favorite in consecutive weeks, barely squeezing past Houston and the Jets. Yet they find themselves favored heavily again this weekend.
That’s partially because the Washington Redskins have looked far worse than Indy over the past couple of weeks, but also because the books are afraid of the parlay and tease options open to bettors, says Korner.
For the record, the Colts are 16-3 straight-up when favored at home by a touchdown or more since 2004, but only 9-10 against the number over that same span.Comment
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NHL
Pro Hockey Trend Report
ANAHEIM (5-0-0-2, 12 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (3-4-0-1, 7 pts.) - 10/22/2006, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 5-16 ATS (+24.7 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 6-3 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 6-3-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.9 Units)Comment
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Dunkel Index - Hockey
Dunkel Index – NHL
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22
Anaheim at Los Angeles
The Ducks are flying high in the early going with a 5-0-2 start, including a 2-1 win on Friday over previously unbeaten Minnesota. The Ducks will "travel" up the road tonight to face a Kings team they have beaten the last five times. Los Angeles has also had a tough time protecting the home ice with a 2-3-1 record this season that includes being outscored 13-4 in their last four games. Anaheim looks like a good play to take this one as Dunkel has the Ducks favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-1 1/2).
Game 1-2: Anaheim at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.757; Los Angeles 10.701
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-1 1/2); UnderComment
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Dunkel Index - Baseball
Dunkel Index – MLB – World Series
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22
St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers
No team knows better how quickly the complexion of a series can change than Detroit. The Tigers took advantage of that domino effect when they whipped through the Yankees and A's in seven straight. Now they may find themselves on the other side of the equation after last night's 7-2 loss. There were a number of troubling signs for Detroit not the least of which was an offense that managed just four hits and two runs off rookie pitcher Anthony Reyes. Another ominous sign was Albert Pujols' HR as the Cards have managed to go this far without any real contribution from their star. Detroit comes back today with starter Kenny Rogers, who has been lights out in two postseason appearances. But the Cardinals come close to matching that with Jeff Weaver, who has been St. Louis' most consistent starter down the stretch. Tony LaRussa's club looks too dangerous to pass up as an underdog in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Cards favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+1 1/2).
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Weaver) 18.242; Detroit (Rogers) 17.810
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+1 1/2); UnderComment
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MLB - DUNKEL
No team knows better how quickly the complexion of a series can change than Detroit. The Tigers took advantage of that domino effect when they whipped through the Yankees and A's in seven straight. Now they may find themselves on the other side of the equation after last night's 7-2 loss. There were a number of troubling signs for Detroit not the least of which was an offense that managed just four hits and two runs off rookie pitcher Anthony Reyes. Another ominous sign was Albert Pujols' HR as the Cards have managed to go this far without any real contribution from their star. Detroit comes back today with starter Kenny Rogers, who has been lights out in two postseason appearances. But the Cardinals come close to matching that with Jeff Weaver, who has been St. Louis' most consistent starter down the stretch. Tony LaRussa's club looks too dangerous to pass up as an underdog in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Cards favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+1 1/2).
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22
Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Weaver) 18.242; Detroit (Rogers) 17.810
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+1 1/2); UnderComment
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LOL!!!!!!! I knew I should have waited 5 seconds to see if you were already on this, pm!!! Thanks, buddy! Good luck today!Comment
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MLB
ST. LOUIS
in all games
91-82 This season | 306-213 Last 3 seasons
when the total is 8 to 8.5
36-20 This season | 105-57 Last 3 seasons
as a road underdog of +150 to +175
0-4 This season | 4-8 Last 3 seasons
in road games
39-49 This season | 143-117 Last 3 seasons
on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
13-11 This season | 48-28 Last 3 seasons
in October games
8-5 This season | 24-18 Last 3 seasons
when playing on Sunday
16-11 This season | 50-33 Last 3 seasons
in an inter-league game
6-10 This season | 27-20 Last 3 seasons
in games played on a grass field
91-82 This season | 301-209 Last 3 seasons
in night games
51-62 This season | 191-142 Last 3 seasons
against left-handed starters
26-35 This season | 87-68 Last 3 seasons
in playoff games
8-4 This season | 20-16 Last 3 seasons
after a win
48-42 This season | 171-134 Last 3 seasons
when playing against a team with a winning record
38-36 This season | 129-94 Last 3 seasons
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
19-12 This season | 71-48 Last 3 seasons
DETROIT
in all games
103-69 This season | 246-250 Last 3 seasons
when the total is 8 to 8.5
26-20 This season | 57-59 Last 3 seasons
as a home favorite of -150 to -175
14-6 This season | 21-14 Last 3 seasons
as a home favorite of -175 to -200
2-4 This season | 6-6 Last 3 seasons
in home games
50-36 This season | 127-121 Last 3 seasons
at home when the total is 8 to 8.5
11-10 This season | 29-33 Last 3 seasons
in October games
7-3 This season | 8-7 Last 3 seasons
when playing on Sunday
13-13 This season | 31-46 Last 3 seasons
in an inter-league game
15-4 This season | 33-22 Last 3 seasons
in games played on a grass field
95-60 This season | 222-224 Last 3 seasons
in night games
70-39 This season | 163-155 Last 3 seasons
against right-handed starters
68-49 This season | 166-172 Last 3 seasons
in playoff games
7-2 This season | 7-2 Last 3 seasons
after a loss
37-33 This season | 114-137 Last 3 seasons
when playing against a team with a winning record
40-42 This season | 121-152 Last 3 seasons
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
27-29 This season | 65-92 Last 3 seasonsComment
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