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College coaches who love to cover the spread
By Jeff Mason
Tue, Oct 17, 2006
The Ohio State Buckeyes led 34-7 with just 1:14 left in their Week 3 game against the Cincinnati Bearcats and faced a fourth-and-24 on the Bearcats’ 35-yard line.
Most bettors probably expected head coach Jim Tressel to bring on the punt team, or at least run the ball up the middle, as many coaches do late in a blowout game.
But it wasn’t just for the sake of sportsmanship they were hoping the Buckeyes would be satisfied with a 27-point win over a non-conference opponent. A large number of sharp bettors, expecting a letdown after Ohio State’s statement-making 24-7 win over the Texas Longhorns the week before, had grabbed the Bearcats between +29 ½ and +28 ½ leading up to game time.
The prospect of covering the spread hadn’t been in doubt up to this point – the Buckeyes led just 13-7 at halftime – but a field goal would mean a 30-point win and an OSU cover.
Much to their dismay, backup kicker Ryan Pretorius trotted on to the field and promptly split the uprights on a 52-yard field goal. The final score: Ohio State 37, Cincinnati 7. The Buckeyes covered by a point and a half.
It’s impossible to say whether or not Tressel knew what he was doing when he ordered Pretorius onto the field. But to many, the message was clear: for one reason or another, Tressel intentionally made an attempt to cover the spread.
As members of the NCAA, an athletic organization with more rules, sanctions and compliances than just about any other, college football coaches wouldn’t mention giving students money to buy a sandwich, let alone knowledge of a pointspread. The closest thing most journalists ever hear to a coach’s admission of checking the line is referring to his team as an “underdog.”
But both sportsbooks and handicappers know - even if coaches don’t necessarily talk about the number - that most coaches are at least aware of the line.
“I remember (Florida State head coach) Bobby Bowden used walk into the locker room before they played a cupcake opponent and tell his players, ‘OK, boys, we’re X-point favorites in this game,’” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “It gives a team motivation to play hard even when they’re a big favorite.”
That’s not the only reason coaches are interested in the spread. Their primary job is to build a program and win football games, but they also have the unenviable job of appeasing their program’s fan base and financial boosters. And if you don’t think boosters are betting, you’re kidding yourself.
That forces us to ask an important question: What situation gives coaches the best chance to intentionally cover the spread? Of course, it happens “by mistake” all the time, when teams are underdogs or small to medium-sized favorites.
But it’s the big lines – the spreads most public bettors wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole – that provide coaches with the best opportunity to manipulate the score.
Oddsmakers rarely offer spreads higher than 40 points. When they do, it’s for games that pit the cream of the crop against the bottom of the barrel. They know the better team can conceivably win the game by 50 or 60 points if it wants to, but sportsmanship and disinterest often keep the margin of victory relatively reasonable.
But no pointspread is big enough to keep some coaches honest.
“There are definitely some coaches that we consider spread-beaters,’” says Simon Noble of Pinnaclesports.com. “These include coaches at big time college programs that are usually ranked in the top 25 like Mack Brown of Texas, USC’s Pete Carroll, Louisville’s Bobby Petrino and Bob Stoops of Oklahoma.
“In games involving teams led by these coaches, the line generally reflects their preference to cover the spread.”
The problem is that these teams are often so good, and their opponents so bad, they can cover any spread if they have the incentive.
“I remember (former Kansas State head coach) Bill Snyder used to be famous for running up the score,” says Merril. “He burned me a lot at first, but then I realized he was always going to cover if he had the opportunity. I remember one game where he put his first-stringers back in late in the game just to make sure the Wildcats covered the spread.”
Snyder, who went 7-1 against the spread as a favorite of 30 points or more in non-conference play from 1997-2002, may be the extreme example, but like-minded coaches undoubtedly follow his tactical blueprint. The perfect scenario is a spread of 30 points or more in a home game against a non-conference opponent.
“Non-conference opponents are always preferable, simply because there’s less chance an opponent will be able to enact revenge down the road,” says Merril, “And teams are always afraid that getting blown out will affect their standing in the polls.”
The polls provide even more incentive for coaches to run up the score against overmatched opponents. Cruising to a 20-point win against a cupcake opponent might be good for a team’s karma, but voters can’t watch every game. So coaches have to show how good they are on the scoreboard with a lopsided win.
“Another thing to consider when teams score late in games to cover when the win is almost a certainty, is the BCS standings,” says Noble. “While the point differential or margin of victory is no longer a factor to use in the computer rankings, it’s very difficult to ignore.”
The BCS standings, and consequently, the Harris and Coaches polls, play a big factor in who plays whom in January. In an era that’s seen as many as four undefeated teams in a single season, coaches need to make an impression on voters any way they can.
The uncontrollable nature of these games is a sportsbooks’ worst nightmare, but for bettors, it can be money in the bank in the right situation. That is, if you’re don’t mind relying on a backup kicker to make a 52-yard field goal every now and then.
Keep this in mind next time you're looking at a HUGE SPREAD...
College coaches who love to cover the spread
By Jeff Mason
Tue, Oct 17, 2006
The Ohio State Buckeyes led 34-7 with just 1:14 left in their Week 3 game against the Cincinnati Bearcats and faced a fourth-and-24 on the Bearcats’ 35-yard line.
Most bettors probably expected head coach Jim Tressel to bring on the punt team, or at least run the ball up the middle, as many coaches do late in a blowout game.
But it wasn’t just for the sake of sportsmanship they were hoping the Buckeyes would be satisfied with a 27-point win over a non-conference opponent. A large number of sharp bettors, expecting a letdown after Ohio State’s statement-making 24-7 win over the Texas Longhorns the week before, had grabbed the Bearcats between +29 ½ and +28 ½ leading up to game time.
The prospect of covering the spread hadn’t been in doubt up to this point – the Buckeyes led just 13-7 at halftime – but a field goal would mean a 30-point win and an OSU cover.
Much to their dismay, backup kicker Ryan Pretorius trotted on to the field and promptly split the uprights on a 52-yard field goal. The final score: Ohio State 37, Cincinnati 7. The Buckeyes covered by a point and a half.
It’s impossible to say whether or not Tressel knew what he was doing when he ordered Pretorius onto the field. But to many, the message was clear: for one reason or another, Tressel intentionally made an attempt to cover the spread.
As members of the NCAA, an athletic organization with more rules, sanctions and compliances than just about any other, college football coaches wouldn’t mention giving students money to buy a sandwich, let alone knowledge of a pointspread. The closest thing most journalists ever hear to a coach’s admission of checking the line is referring to his team as an “underdog.”
But both sportsbooks and handicappers know - even if coaches don’t necessarily talk about the number - that most coaches are at least aware of the line.
“I remember (Florida State head coach) Bobby Bowden used walk into the locker room before they played a cupcake opponent and tell his players, ‘OK, boys, we’re X-point favorites in this game,’” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “It gives a team motivation to play hard even when they’re a big favorite.”
That’s not the only reason coaches are interested in the spread. Their primary job is to build a program and win football games, but they also have the unenviable job of appeasing their program’s fan base and financial boosters. And if you don’t think boosters are betting, you’re kidding yourself.
That forces us to ask an important question: What situation gives coaches the best chance to intentionally cover the spread? Of course, it happens “by mistake” all the time, when teams are underdogs or small to medium-sized favorites.
But it’s the big lines – the spreads most public bettors wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole – that provide coaches with the best opportunity to manipulate the score.
Oddsmakers rarely offer spreads higher than 40 points. When they do, it’s for games that pit the cream of the crop against the bottom of the barrel. They know the better team can conceivably win the game by 50 or 60 points if it wants to, but sportsmanship and disinterest often keep the margin of victory relatively reasonable.
But no pointspread is big enough to keep some coaches honest.
“There are definitely some coaches that we consider spread-beaters,’” says Simon Noble of Pinnaclesports.com. “These include coaches at big time college programs that are usually ranked in the top 25 like Mack Brown of Texas, USC’s Pete Carroll, Louisville’s Bobby Petrino and Bob Stoops of Oklahoma.
“In games involving teams led by these coaches, the line generally reflects their preference to cover the spread.”
The problem is that these teams are often so good, and their opponents so bad, they can cover any spread if they have the incentive.
“I remember (former Kansas State head coach) Bill Snyder used to be famous for running up the score,” says Merril. “He burned me a lot at first, but then I realized he was always going to cover if he had the opportunity. I remember one game where he put his first-stringers back in late in the game just to make sure the Wildcats covered the spread.”
Snyder, who went 7-1 against the spread as a favorite of 30 points or more in non-conference play from 1997-2002, may be the extreme example, but like-minded coaches undoubtedly follow his tactical blueprint. The perfect scenario is a spread of 30 points or more in a home game against a non-conference opponent.
“Non-conference opponents are always preferable, simply because there’s less chance an opponent will be able to enact revenge down the road,” says Merril, “And teams are always afraid that getting blown out will affect their standing in the polls.”
The polls provide even more incentive for coaches to run up the score against overmatched opponents. Cruising to a 20-point win against a cupcake opponent might be good for a team’s karma, but voters can’t watch every game. So coaches have to show how good they are on the scoreboard with a lopsided win.
“Another thing to consider when teams score late in games to cover when the win is almost a certainty, is the BCS standings,” says Noble. “While the point differential or margin of victory is no longer a factor to use in the computer rankings, it’s very difficult to ignore.”
The BCS standings, and consequently, the Harris and Coaches polls, play a big factor in who plays whom in January. In an era that’s seen as many as four undefeated teams in a single season, coaches need to make an impression on voters any way they can.
The uncontrollable nature of these games is a sportsbooks’ worst nightmare, but for bettors, it can be money in the bank in the right situation. That is, if you’re don’t mind relying on a backup kicker to make a 52-yard field goal every now and then.
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