Tuesday Trends and Indexes 10/17

[djmauiboy]

Wednesday, October 18th

(TC) Louisiana Lafayette at Florida Atlantic, 7:30 EST ESPN2
LA Lafayette: 6-0 Over on grass fields
Florida Atl: 0-7 ATS in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Thursday, October 19th

Bowling Green at Central Michigan, 7:30 EST ESPNU
Bowling Green: 6-1 Under in October
Central Michigan: 6-0 ATS in October

North Carolina at Virginia, 7:30 EST ESPN
North Carolina: 8-2 Under off 3+ losses
Virginia: 7-0 ATS at home vs. North Carolina

Utah at New Mexico, 9:00 EST
Utah: 13-3 Over off a conference loss
New Mexico: 26-12 ATS off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Friday, October 20th

West Virginia at Connecticut, 8:00 EST ESPN
West Virginia: 6-0 ATS off a conference win
Connecticut: 10-2 Under off a straight up win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Saturday, October 21st

(TC) Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 5:45 EST ESPN2
Rutgers: 8-3 Over vs. conference opponents
Pittsburgh: 7-0 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

Illinois at Penn State, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Illinois: 11-27 ATS off an Under
Penn State: 6-1 Under off a loss

Michigan State at Northwestern, 12:00 EST
Michigan State: 2-12 ATS away off a home conference loss
Northwestern: 6-1 Under off 3+ losses

Louisville at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
Louisville: 7-0 Over away in October
Syracuse: 8-1 ATS at home off an ATS win

Indiana at Ohio State, 12:00 EST ESPNU
Indiana: 10-2 Over as an underdog
Ohio State: 10-1 ATS off an Under

NC State at Maryland, 12:00 EST
NC State: 12-4 Under in road games
Maryland: 1-9 ATS as a home favorite

(TC) TCU at Army, 3:30 EST ESPNU
TCU: 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Army: 6-1 Under after committing 4+ turnovers

(TC) Southern Miss at Virginia Tech, 7:00 EST ESPNU
Southern Miss: 4-15 ATS off a conference win by 7 points or less
Virginia Tech: 13-4 ATS after scoring 14 points or less

Buffalo at Ohio U, 2:00 EST
Buffalo: 6-1 ATS off BB games gaining 125 or less rushing yards
Ohio U: 6-0 Under after forcing 3+ turnovers

Western Michigan at Ball State, 2:00 EST
Western Michigan: 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Ball State: 10-1 ATS at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games

(TC) Mississippi at Arkansas, 12:30 EST
Mississippi: 0-6 ATS off an Over
Arkansas: 11-2 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points

UCLA at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST NBC
UCLA: 9-1 ATS off a road game
Notre Dame: 9-25 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games

Tulane at Auburn, 2:30 EST
Tulane: 7-0 Over away vs. non-conference opponnets
Auburn: 10-1 ATS in October

South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 3:00 EST
South Carolina: 8-2 Under in road games
Vanderbilt: 13-1 ATS off a win by 6 points or less

UNLV at BYU, 3:00 EST
UNLV: 6-15 ATS off a loss
BYU: 6-0 Over off a home win

Kansas at Baylor, 3:00 EST
Kansas: 8-23 ATS off a home conference loss
Baylor: 1-6 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points

Temple at Northern Illinois, 3:00 EST
Temple: 3-13 ATS vs. MAC opponents
Northern Illinois: 20-8 ATS at home off a road game

SMU at East Carolina, 3:00 EST
SMU: 13-4 Under as an underdog
East Carolina: 13-4 ATS last 17 games

Iowa at Michigan, 3:30 EST ABC
Iowa: 27-13 ATS off an Over
Michigan: 5-1 Under as a favorite

(TC) Miami FL at Duke, 1:00 EST
Miami FL: 12-3 Under off BB home wins
Duke: 0-7 ATS in home games

(TC) Texas at Nebraska, 12:00 EST ABC
Texas: 10-0 Over off a conference game
Nebraska: 23-9 ATS off a road win by 10+ points

(TC) Wisconsin at Purdue, 12:00 EST ESPN
Wisconsin: 15-6 ATS as a favorite
Purdue: 2-10 ATS in October

(TC) Mississippi State at Georgia, 1:00 EST
Mississippi State: 1-8 ATS off a home game
Georgia: 10-0 ATS off BB conference losses

Alabama at Tennessee, 3:30 EST CBS
Alabama: 16-6 ATS away off BB ATS losses
Tennessee: 1-8 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

Washington at California, 3:30 EST FSN
Washington: 1-8 ATS at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games
California: 6-1 ATS off BB ATS wins

Colorado State at Wyoming, 4:00 EST CSTV
Colorado State: 9-1 Over off BB Unders
Wyoming: 14-3 ATS off an ATS win

Rice at Central Florida, 4:00 EST
Rice: 1-8 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Central Florida: 10-2 Under off a non-conference game

(TC) Toledo at Eastern Michigan, 3:00 EST
Toledo: 4-0 Over playing on artificial turf
Eastern Michigan: 5-1 ATS off BB road games

Miami OH at Akron, 6:00 EST
Miami OH: 8-2 ATS off a SU road win / ATS loss
Akron: 6-1 Under off a road loss

(TC) Stanford at Arizona State, 3:30 EST
Stanford: 1-6 ATS off a straight up loss
Arizona State: 6-0 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win

San Jose State at Nevada, 7:00 EST ABC
San Jose State: 8-1 Under away vs. conference opponents
Nevada: 8-0 ATS as a home favorite

Oregon State at Arizona, 7:00 EST
Oregon State: 8-2 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Arizona: 12-30 ATS at home off a win

UTEP at Houston, 7:00 EST
UTEP: 10-2 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
Houston: 5-17 ATS at home off BB ATS losses

Utah State at Louisiana Tech, 7:00 EST
Utah State: 2-10 ATS away off BB ATS wins
Louisiana Tech: 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

(TC) Fresno State at LSU, 9:00 EST ESPN2
Fresno State: 11-2 ATS off BB conference games
LSU: 6-21 ATS at home off 3+ conference games

(TC) Texas Tech at Iowa State, 3:30 EST
Texas Tech: 20-6 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Iowa State: 1-14 ATS off BB games gaining 100 or less rushing yards

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State, 7:00 EST
Texas A&M: 5-19 ATS as a road underdog
Oklahoma State: 8-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3

(TC) Kansas State at Missouri, 2:00 EST
Kansas State: 15-5 Over off a conference loss
Missouri: 10-2 ATS at home off an Under

Colorado at Oklahoma, 7:00 EST FSN
Colorado: 20-7 Over off a win by 21+ points
Oklahoma: 19-35 ATS off a win by 21+ points

Marshall at UAB, 7:00 EST
Marshall: 0-7 ATS off a conference loss
UAB: 6-1 Over in October

(TC) Georgia Tech at Clemson, 7:45 EST ESPN
Georgia Tech: 16-6 Under in October
Clemson: 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards

(TC) Boston College at Florida State, 3:30 EST ABC
Boston College: 7-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points as an underdog
Florida State: 1-8 ATS off BB conference games

Hawaii at New Mexico State, 8:00 EST
Hawaii: 11-3 Over vs. conference opponents
New Mexico State: 0-7 ATS off a home loss

Tulsa at Memphis, 8:00 EST CSTV
Tulsa: 8-0 ATS off an Under
Memphis: 6-1 Over after committing 0 turnovers

Air Force at San Diego State, 8:00 EST
Air Force: 21-8 ATS away off a home win
San Diego State: 7-0 Over as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

(TC) Boise State at Idaho, 5:00 EST
Boise State: 39-19 ATS vs. conference opponents
Idaho: 2-8 ATS off a conference win by 10+ points

(TC) Oregon at Washington State, 5:00 EST
Oregon: 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss
Washington State: 3-19 ATS off ATS wins in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games


Added Games:

North Texas at Arkansas State, 7:00 EST
North Texas: 22-10 ATS off a conference win
Arkansas State: 0-7 ATS off a win by 3 points or less

Middle Tennessee State at Lousiana Monroe, 7:00 EST
Mid Tenn State: 8-1 Under away off a loss
LA Monroe: 5-1 ATS off 3+ losses

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Sunday, October 22nd

South Florida at Cincinnati, 8:00 EST ESPN
South Florida: 6-0 ATS off an Over
Cincinnati: 14-4 Under as a favorite

[Udog]

"Udog....here's the info for nhl today. post #8 was Monday's games"

Thanks, dj!!!! I was so asleep when I did that! As I haven't started betting the NHL yet, I probably would have gone all day without noticing that!

[djmauiboy]

Tuesday, October 17th

Philadelphia at Buffalo, 7:05 EST VER
Philadelphia: 27-15 Over off an Under
Buffalo: 14-3 SU after scoring 6+ goals

Calgary at Montreal, 7:35 EST
Calgary: 16-5 Under Away off BB Away games
Montreal: 2-7 SU at home off 3+ Unders

Phoenix at St. Louis, 8:05 EST
Phoenix: 27-15 Over off an Away game
St. Louis: 10-1 SU off BB home wins by 1 goal

Vancouver at Edmonton, 9:05 EST
Vancouver: 18-7 Under Away off a home win by one goal
Edmonton: 7-0 SU off a 1 goal loss to a division rival

Dallas at San Jose, 10:35 EST
Dallas: 9-18 SU after covering the spread 5+ games
San Jose: 30-10 SU after scoring 3+ goals BB games

[djmauiboy]

Opening line report: Early value in the NFL

Looking for some early value from the Week 7 NFL card?

OK, hope you don’t mind playing the Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins.

The Redskins opened +10 against the Indianapolis Colts early Sunday evening and were at either 9 ½ or 9 Monday afternoon.

“They will be on the top of every wise guy’s ticket,” professional gambler Dave Malinsky said of the Redskins. “By Sunday the number could be down to 8 ½.”

You can’t blame the oddsmakers for opening Indy such a big favorite. Not after the Redskins were held to three points by the New York Giants two weeks ago and followed that effort with a shocking home loss to the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday as a double-digit favorite.

“All I can say is if you’re going to play Washington you’re bolder than me,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, whose company opened the Colts -9 ½. “I think 9 ½ is a fair number. I don’t want to be in position of having to root for the Redskins the way they’ve looked.

“I’d rather have the Colts for us (the bookmakers). I know the Colts haven’t been playing great, but they’re off a bye and at home.”

Peyton Manning, inside his home dome, certainly is a weapon against a grass team. But the Redskins’ secondary gets a lift with cornerback Shawn Springs back in the lineup. The Colts entered their bye ranked last in run defense average, giving up 5.2 yards per carry.

Indy’s 5-0 record also is deceiving in that four of the Colts’ five wins have come by a combined 16 points, an average victory margin of four points.

You can find the Dolphins as cheap as -3 ½ hosting Green Bay. You’ll have to shop because some books had 4 and even 4 ½.

There will be less pressure on Miami now returning home after three consecutive road games.

“Statistically the Dolphins played two good games in a row it was just that Joey Harrington gave away opportunities,” Malinsky said. “Statistically they beat the Patriots and Jets. If they would have won those games, this line would be 6.

“So you’re actually getting a team that is much better (than Green Bay), except at quarterback, at a short price. If Green Bay went to Miami opening week, the line would have been 7 or 7 ½.

“But no one wants the Dolphins now.”

Can you blame them? Not only are the Dolphins 1-5 straight-up, but they are also the only NFL team without a pointspread cover. Carolina and Oakland each covered Sunday for the first time this season, leaving the Dolphins as the only team not to cash for bettors.

A big reason for this is Miami has yet to score more than 17 points. That could change this week with a bad Packers defense coming to South Florida.

“Now’s the time to play Miami,” Malinsky said.

That may be hard to do, though, for those like myself who have failed to cash taking the Dolphins the past two weeks. Watching Harrington is like being locked inside a torture chamber with Torquemada.

Daunte Culpepper was horrible, but at least he wasn’t afraid to throw downfield passes despite being less than 100 percent.

There are some big road spreads this week. Jacksonville is laying 9 ½ to the Texans in Houston, while San Diego is -5 ½ to the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

“We want to stay high on the popular teams like Indianapolis and San Diego,” Seba said.

While linesmakers may have slightly shaded the Colts, San Diego and Jacksonville lines appear solid. Who’s going to get involved with the Texans, even if they’ve covered six of eight against the Jaguars? It’s also hard to step in against the Chargers.

The Chargers just could be the most complete team in the AFC now that Philip Rivers is erasing doubts about the quarterback position. In fact, the Chargers’ lone weakness may be Coach Marty Schottenheimer’s conservative play-calling at the end of some games.

Those looking to take a touchdown with the rested Cleveland Browns at home against Denver can’t be too pleased since most books have the Broncos -4 ½.

It’s Denver’s only road appearance in a four-week span and only non-marquee game during this time frame. So a letdown could be in order.

“In the eyes of the gaming community, Denver’s not explosive enough to lay big points on the road,” Malinsky said. “Denver’s scored just 13 points back-to-back weeks.”