Monday Trends and Indexes 10/16

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes for Monday, October 16

Let’s start the week with a good Monday!

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Pro Football

Dunkel Index - NFL

MONDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 429-430: Chicago at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 139.637; Arizona 122.480
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 17; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 10; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-10); Over

[djmauiboy]

MNF QUICK REFERENCE

DUNKEL POSTED ABOVE
---------------------------------

Monday, October 16th

Chicago at Arizona, 8:30 EST ESPN
Chicago: 1-9 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
Arizona: 21-7 ATS at home off 3+ losses

---------------------------------
Chicago (5-0) @ Arizona (1-4)-Lot of transplanted Chicagoans in desert, so should be decent amount of Bear fans at rare Monday night Cardinal home game. Leinart did well enough (22-35/222 passing) in his first start, but now gets stiff test from Bear defense that has allowed only two TDs on 54 opponent drives, while forcing 15 turnovers, 18 3/outs. Grossman has emerged as passing threat (6.5+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games) which has opened up rushing game (298 yds in last two games). Loss of WR Fitzgerald (hamstring) hurts potentially explosive Cardinal offense; their QBs have been sacked 17 times in five games, but turnovers were down (1) in Leinart's first start.

------------------------------------

CHICAGO (5 - 0) at ARIZONA (1 - 4) - 10/16/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

[djmauiboy]

Monday Nhl

Hot Teams
-- Carolina won last two games, scoring nine goals; this is their fifth straight road game.
-- Devils won three of first four games, scoring 10 goals in last two games.
-- Islanders won their last two games, scoring nine goals.
-- Edmonton won three of their first four games.

Cold Teams
-- Lightning lost three of last four games, scoring eight goals.
-- Rangers lost last three games, allowing 17 goals.
-- Nashville lost three of their first four games.
-- Blackhawks lost two of last three games; they allow 4.0 gpg. Colorado lost three of first four games (all one-goal games).
-- Canucks lost their last three games (2-3/1-2/4-6).
-- Detroit split first four games, allowing eight goals. Kings lost their last two games, scoring total of two goals.

Series Records
-- Home side was 7-1 in Tampa-Carolina games last year, with Hurricanes 0-4 in this building (2-5/4-5ot/3-5/2-3ot).
-- Devils swept Rangers out of playoffs last spring, outscoring Blueshirts 17-4 in one-sided series.
-- Islanders lost 2-1 in Nashville in their only meeting last year.
-- Chicago, Colorado split four games last year. (1-1 each rink)
-- Edmonton was 6-2 vs Vancouver last year, taking three of the four games in this building (5-4/7-6/304so/3-2).
-- Detroit was 4-0 vs Kings last year (5-4ot/5-2/7-3/5-2).

Totals
-- Three of last four Carolina games stayed under the total, as did all five Tampa Bay games.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in Ranger games this season.
-- No totals trends of note in Nashville-Islander game.
-- Three of four Chicago games went over the total.
-- Four of five Vancouver games stayed under the total.
-- Three of four Detroit games stayed under the total.

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Baseball

Dunkel Index – MLB

MONDAY, OCTOBER 16

NY Mets at St. Louis
The Mets offense regained some momentum last night and a much-needed win over the Cards to knot the series at 2-apiece. Tonight Willie Randolph will come back with Tom Glavine, who handcuffed the Cardinals in Game One. But Glavine will be starting on short rest and his numbers in the postseason under such circumstances are not good (2-5, 6.75 in 7 starts). At 40, there's a question about how much fuel he has in the tank to bounce back so quickly. His counterpart, Jeff Weaver, is also starting on only three-days' rest, but is 10 years younger and has pitched well down the stretch (2 runs in 10 2/3 postseason innings). This one is a close call with the Mets getting a slight nod according to Dunkel, but not outside the run line. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+1 1/2)

Game 969-970: NY Mets at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Glavine) 17.552; St. Louis (Weaver) 16.596
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+1 1/2); Over

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Hockey

Dunkel Index – NHL

MONDAY, OCTOBER 16

Nashville at NY Islanders
No team started the season with a tougher schedule than the Islanders, who opened with four games out West (Phoenix, San Jose, L.A. and Anaheim). Not surprisingly, New York limped home to Nassau Coliseum with a 1-3 record. But home cooking was just what the Islanders needed as they easily defeated Boston (4-1) on Saturday. Goalie Mike Dunham, filling in for the injured Rick DiPietro, looked solid in making his second straight start. Tonight the Isles will face a Nashville team that has lost each of its first two road games (Chicago and Minnesota) and has dropped three of its first four overall. Vegas still has Nashville the favorite, making New York a solid underdog play according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored straight up by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's game

Game 1-2: Carolina at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.452; Tampa Bay 10.764
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+1 1/2); Under

Game 3-4: New Jersey at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.050; NY Rangers 10.567
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+1 1/2); Under

Game 5-6: Nashville at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.476; NY Islanders 10.755
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+1 1/2); Under

Game 7-8: Chicago at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.618; Colorado 11.223
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Over

Game 9-10: Edmonton at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 12.476; Vancouver 11.169
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+1 1/2); Under

Game 11-12: Detroit at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.126; Los Angeles 10.813
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1 1/2); Under

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Pro Football (Write up for MNF)

MONDAY, OCTOBER 16

Chicago at Arizona

Talk of the Bears going undefeated this season may be a little premature after only five games. But there's no doubt the Monsters of the Midway are back in top form. Four of Chicago's five wins have come by margins of 26 or more and the last two (against Seattle and Buffalo) have come by a combined score of 77-13. Tonight the Bears travel to Arizona to face a Cardinals' team that is off to another rough start (1-4, 1-2 at home) and already going through a QB change (rookie Matt Leinart replacing Kurt Warner). Leinart should get quite an introduction to the top-ranked scoring defense in the league (7.2 ppg), while Chicago QB Rex Grossman could feast on the 26th-ranked passing defense (237.4 ypg). The Bears look like a solid play to cover in this one according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-10)

[vinnyvegas]

This is early...BUT...I've noticed teams having some issues covering on HC day...hmmm???

Date/Home/Visitor
20-Oct Connecticut W. Virginia
21-Oct Auburn Tulane
21-Oct Arizona St. Stanford
21-Oct Ball St. W. Michigan
21-Oct Baylor Kansas
21-Oct BYU UNLV
21-Oct E. Michigan Toledo
21-Oct Iowa St. Texas Tech
21-Oct LA Monroe Middle Tenn
21-Oct Maryland N.C. St.
21-Oct Memphis Tulsa
21-Oct Missouri Kansas St.
21-Oct Nevada San Jose St.
21-Oct New Mexico St. Hawaii
21-Oct N. Illinois Temple
21-Oct N.W. Michigan St.
21-Oct Ohio Buffalo
21-Oct Oklahoma Colorado
21-Oct Oklahoma St. Texas A. & M.
21-Oct Pittsburgh Rutgers
21-Oct Vanderbilt So. Carolina
21-Oct Virginia Tech So. Miss

[Udog]

"...I've noticed teams having some issues covering on HC day...hmmm???"

The first week this list was posted, they did very well. This past Saturday, though, was an entirely different story! Very interesting.

Good luck today, everybody!

[Udog]

MLB

Tom Glavine has streak of 19 consecutive scoreless innings as he tries to cap off Hall of Fame career with another World Series appearance. He is 2-0, 3.00 in two starts vs St Louis this season. Glavine, Weaver both going on three days' rest here in pivotal Game 5 of NLCS; in Game 1, Glavine tossed zeroes for 7 innings and beat Weaver 2-0, after Weaver gave up pair of runs in sixth inning to break scoreless tie. Weaver allowed seven runs in 10.2 IP against the Mets this season.

[Udog]

MLB

NY METS (102 - 67) at ST LOUIS (88 - 81) - 8:05 PM
TOM GLAVINE (L) vs. JEFF WEAVER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WEAVER is 8-2 (+7.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 102-67 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 52-27 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
NY METS are 19-9 (+8.9 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
NY METS are 49-35 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
NY METS are 20-8 (+13.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
NY METS are 100-66 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 77-46 (+21.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 60-40 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
NY METS are 46-26 (+17.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY METS are 19-7 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
GLAVINE is 26-8 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GLAVINE is 12-2 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record)
GLAVINE is 25-8 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
GLAVINE is 16-6 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
GLAVINE is 14-2 (+12.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
GLAVINE is 13-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 88-81 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 33-37 (-14.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ST LOUIS is 88-81 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 48-61 (-30.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 24-35 (-23.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 3-10 (-8.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-40 (-9.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
WEAVER is 56-64 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WEAVER is 9-16 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 6-4 (+2.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)



TOM GLAVINE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GLAVINE is 10-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP of 1.220.
His team's record is 13-4 (+7.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-9. (-1.9 units)



JEFF WEAVER vs. NY METS since 1997
WEAVER is 2-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 5.64 and a WHIP of 1.145.
His team's record is 3-3 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.6 units)

[Udog]

MLB

Monday, October 16th


National League Championship Series
Game Five
TV: FOX
Series Tied, 2-2
NY Mets at St. Louis, 8:05 EST
Tom Glavine (L) vs. Jeff Weaver (R)


Glavine:
20-6 TSR as a favorite
14-2 TSR pitching off a win

Weaver:
St. Louis 2-11 SU revenging a loss allowing 10+ runs
9-16 TSR in night games

[Udog]

MLB

Key Performance Information
NY METS
in all games
102-67 This season | 256-237 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 9 to 9.5
52-27 This season | 84-65 Last 3 seasons

on the road with a money line of -100 to -125
19-9 This season | 35-21 Last 3 seasons

as a road favorite of -125 to -150
13-7 This season | 21-13 Last 3 seasons

in road games
49-35 This season | 117-129 Last 3 seasons

on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5
20-8 This season | 40-39 Last 3 seasons

in October games
6-2 This season | 8-5 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Monday
7-8 This season | 19-20 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
100-66 This season | 248-229 Last 3 seasons

in night games
64-48 This season | 164-157 Last 3 seasons

against right-handed starters
77-46 This season | 196-168 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
5-2 This season | 5-2 Last 3 seasons

after a win
60-40 This season | 135-121 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
46-26 This season | 130-131 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
19-7 This season | 57-66 Last 3 seasons


ST LOUIS
in all games
88-81 This season | 303-212 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 9 to 9.5
33-37 This season | 123-93 Last 3 seasons

as a home underdog of +100 to +125
2-2 This season | 7-9 Last 3 seasons

in home games
51-33 This season | 162-96 Last 3 seasons

at home when the total is 9 to 9.5
19-15 This season | 73-48 Last 3 seasons

in October games
5-4 This season | 21-17 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Monday
7-11 This season | 27-20 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
88-81 This season | 298-208 Last 3 seasons

in night games
48-61 This season | 188-141 Last 3 seasons

against left-handed starters
24-35 This season | 85-68 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
5-3 This season | 17-15 Last 3 seasons

after allowing 10 runs or more
3-10 This season | 13-17 Last 3 seasons

after a loss
41-40 This season | 133-79 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
35-35 This season | 126-93 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
16-11 This season | 68-47 Last 3 seasons

[Udog]

MLB

Umpire Trends - Jeff Kellogg
Over is 4-0 in Kellogg's last 4 Monday games behind home plate.

Home team is 3-0 in Kellogg's last 3 games behind home plate vs. New York.

Home team is 3-0 in Kellogg's last 3 night games behind home plate vs. New York.

Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 night games with Kellogg behind home plate.

Under is 7-2 in Kellogg's last 9 games behind home plate vs. New York.

Under is 5-2 in Kellogg's last 7 night games behind home plate vs. New York.

Home team is 9-4 in Kellogg's last 13 night games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.