Tweet
HEY GUYS HERE ARE A COUPLE OF GOOD ONES OFF OF TOMORROW'S CARD. GL IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY!
-------------------------------------------------
VANDERBILT (2 - 4) at GEORGIA (5 - 1)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2006 3:30 PM
vs. 
Analysis
In what will undoubtedly be one of my biggest contrarian plays of the season, its time to back the “smart kids” from Vanderbilt! When I say contrarian, what I mean is that everybody is backing this Georgia squad this Saturday, with 90% of the betting action being placed on Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt (2-4 SU & 3-2 ATS) is showing some spunk, losing at Michigan and Alabama but covering the number. Junior QB Chris Nickson leads the offense that is more rush than pass, with 158 yards on the ground per game. Note that the “smart Kids” are 4-1 UNDER the total this season with a defense that is allowing just 16 points per game. Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs (5-1 SU & 2-3 ATS) got their QB back last week, but suffered a humiliating home loss to Tennessee, blowing a 17 point second quarter lead. Georgia “had” the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation, until Tennessee shredded them Saturday in an embarrassing 51-33 home rout. QB Joe Tereshinski’s return to the starting lineup brought something the Georgia offense hadn’t had in the past two games first half points. Georgia was shut out in the first half of its past two games. But the fifth year senior quarterback turned the ball over three times in the second half (two interceptions deep in Georgia territory and fumbled once). Tennessee converted all three turnovers into touchdowns. Tennessee put up the second-most points ever by a visiting team at Sanford Stadium.
Although rarely do programs of the level of Georgia experience “rebuilding” years, that is the case with Mark Richt’s squad, and I’m not buying the bounceback notion that the Bulldogs will play well off of the Tennessee defeat. Rather it simply exposes them for what they are, with only late rallies to get past a horrible Colorado team and Mississippi teams keeping them from being at .500, and facing an uphill battle to merely get any kind of bowl bid. There is little in their arsenal to suggest that they are going to dominate anyone (in covering as double-digit chalk vs. U.A.B. they only managed 271 yards), and the scrappy Commodores are not easy to put away. Having a common opponent (as they both played Mississippi) helps a bit with both the line value and helps us sort of foreshadow where these teams are at in terms of overall talent. As stated above, Georgia defeated Ole Miss, but needed to rally late in doing so. Meanwhile, the “smart kids” lost to Ole Miss, but they completely dominated the game in doing so…despite the final result. Indeed, the Commodores out gained the Rebels by 200 yards and earned 23 first downs to Ole Miss’ 7. The point, Bobby Johnson’s Commodores are a good and even better, undervalued. QB Chris Nickson was nicked up last week but will start on Saturday. The Dawgs have had trouble with mobile QB’s this year, and even if Nickson leaves the game, backup Mackenzie Adams possesses similar athletic skills. The offensive line should get a boost should tackle Brian Stamper play, but he is currently questionable. UGA has athletes, but they are relatively young and the QB situation is unstable. Mark Richt will go with Joe Tereshinski behind center this week, but he lacks the arm strength to stretch a defense. This should allow Vandy’s linebackers, the strength of their defense, to make plays at the point of attack. Georgia’s second-string kicker looked shaky last week and does not possess anywhere near the skills of the injured Brandon Coutu, which is a nice bonus when getting two touchdowns. The “smart kids” also have traveled to Michigan and Alabama so the venue of this trip to Athens does not carry any intimidation. From a technical standpoint the trend is our friend, with Vanderbilt coming into this contest at 10-1 ATS in their last 11 tries as road underdogs and 20-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and although Georgia has a pair of 30-point wins over Commodores in the last two meetings here, they are 6-20-1 ATS at home when scoring less than 21, whch is likely considering that Georgia was averaging just 15 points per game in conference play this season (before Tennessee). Take those 2 Touchdowns!
Verdict: Georgia 24, Vanderbilt 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON VANDERBILT +14.5
MISSISSIPPI (2 - 4) at ALABAMA (4 - 2)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2006 2:00 PM
vs. 
Analysis
Both these SEC teams are struggling on offense with Ole Miss at 5-1 UNDER the total averaging 13 points per game, while Alabama is averaging just 16 per game in SEC play. The Ole Miss defense is allowing 18 points per game in SEC play and just 3.3 yards per carry. Ole Miss (2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS) gave Georgia a scare before losing 14-9 (leading 3-0 at the half). Freshman QB Brent Schaeffer has stepped in, a transfer from Tennessee, but he's raw. BenJarvis Green-Ellis ran for 102 yards and two scores and Charles Clark had a game-saving interception for Mississippi in a 17-10 victory over Vanderbilt on Saturday. Schaeffer was just 3-of-8 passing for 30 yards. Meanwhile, Alabama (4-2 SU & 2-3-1 ATS) hasn't been wowing anyone on offense, either, and played sloppy in a 30-16 win over Duke. Despite the rather “close” final score, on cannot fault Alabama for coming out flat against Duke last week coming off two mentally draining road losses at Arkansas and Florida. Attempting to regain focus against that class of opponent is a difficult task. Freshman QB John Parker Wilson is still learning and has 4 picks the last two games. The Alabama offense is averaging 24 points, 135 yards rushing, 231 passing per game.
Now my first though on this game was to simply cross it off my list of potential selections, but then I digressed and continued to look harder and harder at this game. As mentioned above, Alabama played horribly last week against a lowly Duke squad. Indeed, Alabama couldn't even get more than a two-point lead over Duke, a team who had scored one touchdown all season long, until the 56th minute of the game. The play was so awful, that they actually got booed while they were coming off the field at half time. When they came out after getting booed, the Tide outscored Duke, 20-0 in the second half. I was also concerned about laying 15.5 points on a team that is just averaging 16 points in conference play. Again I digressed and though could there potentially be a more unlikely favorite to cover this week than Alabama? There's just no way the Crimson Tide should cover this number, which is precisely why they will. Yes, Alabama's record as a home favorite is dismal (1-12 ATS at home against losing teams and 1-8 ATS in its last nine as home chalk) but then again Alabama is 7-0 SU & ATS here against Ole Miss with an average score of 32-8! The Rebel offense is in shambles. Brent Schaeffer was supposed to be the savior of Mississippi football this season but he has failed miserably. The passing game, ranked 113th in the nation, is laughable allowing teams to stack nine men in the box to stop the Rebel run. It also allows teams like Vanderbilt to dominate the Rebs on their home field. Now granted, Ole Miss was able to get the win again Vanderbilt, but in doing so they managed just 17 points and 179 total yards. Their passing game is non-existent, as Ole Miss averages just 3.95 yards per pass and 100 net yards per game. Ole Miss is also weak on defense against the pass, allowing 6.50 yards per passing play. The Rebels gave up 271 yards through the air to Vandy last week, and Bama’s John Parker Wilson should have another solid game against this defense.
I then revisited Alabama’s earlier road losses to Arkansas and Florida and what I uncovered was very telling. Alabama led by eight first downs and 87 yards in those defeats, and consider how impressive that now is off of last week’s results, with Florida handling L.S.U. and Arkansas dominating Auburn. With that being said, Alabama’s talent is as good as any in the S.E.C., and now that they have their focus back they can take out some frustrations against the outmanned Rebels. Mississippi may enter this with a perceived momentum, having played Georgia close two weeks ago and then beating Vanderbilt on Saturday, but there is nothing happening. The Bulldogs were starting a freshmen QB on the road and lacked direction, while the Commodores physically man-handled Ole Miss on Saturday, leading 23-7 in first downs and 400-179 in total offense (five turnovers did them in). With the counter perception of Alabama struggling (barely beat Duke) brings this game cheap from the lines maker. The depleted Rebel defensive front can not take the physical pounding vs. this kind of opponent on the road, and with four true freshmen seeing action on that side of the ball there is an intimidation factor here as well. The fact that Mississippi’s Head coach Ed Orgeron is just 5-11 ATS at Ole Miss cements this play. Lay the number.
Verdict: Alabama 38, Mississippi 6
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ALABAMA -16
WAKE FOREST (5 - 1) at NC STATE (3 - 2)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2006 12:00 PM
vs. 
Analysis
The Demon Deacons (5-1 SU & 3-2 ATS) are playing very good football again for HC Jim Grobe. Wake has a red-shirt freshman QB in Riley Skinner, because they lost starting QB Benjamin Mauk to a season-ending injury in the opener. After getting off to a 5-0 start because of some weak competition, they were given a chance to go 6-0 against Clemson on Saturday, holding a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter. But when it was all said and done, a botched field goal that could have made it 20-3 instead saw a 17-10 reach the scoreboard, with Clemson picking up the bobbled snap and returning it 66 yards for a touchdown. From that point it was a complete collapse, with Wake Forest getting out-scored 24-0 in the final period. Wake's strong ground game will get a stuff test against rejuvenated NC State. Meanwhile, NC State (3-2 SU & 2-2 ATS) has had an up and down season with little offense, averaging just 19.6 points and 162 yards passing. They've lost to Akron and got blown out by Southern Miss. But they are on a bit of a roll, pulling off a 17-15 upset of BC and a 24-20 comeback over rival Florida State. For the second time in as many starts, sophomore quarterback Daniel Evans thrilled the crowd rallying the Wolfpack from a 10-point deficit in the final period for a 24-20 victory. Evans was 13-for-22 for 190 yards with three touchdown passes, two in the fourth quarter, and Andre Brown rushed for 118 yards. The architect of the Wolfpack's comeback from its early doldrums has been Evans, who replaced Marcus Stone after N.C. State's 1-2 start. So they have finally found a QB!
There may not be a more difficult weak psychologically for a team all season than Jim Grobe’s Deacons leading up to this game. The absolutely devastating defeat at the hands of Clemson is more than just a single “loss” to drop them to 5-1; it is a crushing blow for this level of team. Now they not only have to try to regroup with a short road trip, but it is a trip to face an emerging N. C. State squad that has had a couple of extra days to prepare and using those days to review bitter memories of last year’s 27-19 loss at Greensboro, when they had two interceptions returned for touchdowns. NC State has been on a roll as of late with upsets against Boston College and Florida State (then #20 & #17) so their confidence is at a season high right now and once again Chuck Amato has put together an excellent defensive front, one that can stack up the weakest Deacon ground game in the Grobe era, one that has only produced a combined 88 rushing yards through the first two conference games, with one of them coming vs. Duke! Although I can respect Wake's 5-1 SU mark, lets not forget that they did it against lined squads with a combined 6-15 record, plus Liberty. Lay the small field goal on a series that is dominated by the host team.
Verdict: Wake Forest 14, NC State 17
OPINION SELECTION ON NC STATE -3
-------------------------------------------------
VANDERBILT (2 - 4) at GEORGIA (5 - 1)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2006 3:30 PM
vs. Analysis
In what will undoubtedly be one of my biggest contrarian plays of the season, its time to back the “smart kids” from Vanderbilt! When I say contrarian, what I mean is that everybody is backing this Georgia squad this Saturday, with 90% of the betting action being placed on Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt (2-4 SU & 3-2 ATS) is showing some spunk, losing at Michigan and Alabama but covering the number. Junior QB Chris Nickson leads the offense that is more rush than pass, with 158 yards on the ground per game. Note that the “smart Kids” are 4-1 UNDER the total this season with a defense that is allowing just 16 points per game. Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs (5-1 SU & 2-3 ATS) got their QB back last week, but suffered a humiliating home loss to Tennessee, blowing a 17 point second quarter lead. Georgia “had” the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation, until Tennessee shredded them Saturday in an embarrassing 51-33 home rout. QB Joe Tereshinski’s return to the starting lineup brought something the Georgia offense hadn’t had in the past two games first half points. Georgia was shut out in the first half of its past two games. But the fifth year senior quarterback turned the ball over three times in the second half (two interceptions deep in Georgia territory and fumbled once). Tennessee converted all three turnovers into touchdowns. Tennessee put up the second-most points ever by a visiting team at Sanford Stadium.
Although rarely do programs of the level of Georgia experience “rebuilding” years, that is the case with Mark Richt’s squad, and I’m not buying the bounceback notion that the Bulldogs will play well off of the Tennessee defeat. Rather it simply exposes them for what they are, with only late rallies to get past a horrible Colorado team and Mississippi teams keeping them from being at .500, and facing an uphill battle to merely get any kind of bowl bid. There is little in their arsenal to suggest that they are going to dominate anyone (in covering as double-digit chalk vs. U.A.B. they only managed 271 yards), and the scrappy Commodores are not easy to put away. Having a common opponent (as they both played Mississippi) helps a bit with both the line value and helps us sort of foreshadow where these teams are at in terms of overall talent. As stated above, Georgia defeated Ole Miss, but needed to rally late in doing so. Meanwhile, the “smart kids” lost to Ole Miss, but they completely dominated the game in doing so…despite the final result. Indeed, the Commodores out gained the Rebels by 200 yards and earned 23 first downs to Ole Miss’ 7. The point, Bobby Johnson’s Commodores are a good and even better, undervalued. QB Chris Nickson was nicked up last week but will start on Saturday. The Dawgs have had trouble with mobile QB’s this year, and even if Nickson leaves the game, backup Mackenzie Adams possesses similar athletic skills. The offensive line should get a boost should tackle Brian Stamper play, but he is currently questionable. UGA has athletes, but they are relatively young and the QB situation is unstable. Mark Richt will go with Joe Tereshinski behind center this week, but he lacks the arm strength to stretch a defense. This should allow Vandy’s linebackers, the strength of their defense, to make plays at the point of attack. Georgia’s second-string kicker looked shaky last week and does not possess anywhere near the skills of the injured Brandon Coutu, which is a nice bonus when getting two touchdowns. The “smart kids” also have traveled to Michigan and Alabama so the venue of this trip to Athens does not carry any intimidation. From a technical standpoint the trend is our friend, with Vanderbilt coming into this contest at 10-1 ATS in their last 11 tries as road underdogs and 20-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and although Georgia has a pair of 30-point wins over Commodores in the last two meetings here, they are 6-20-1 ATS at home when scoring less than 21, whch is likely considering that Georgia was averaging just 15 points per game in conference play this season (before Tennessee). Take those 2 Touchdowns!
Verdict: Georgia 24, Vanderbilt 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON VANDERBILT +14.5
MISSISSIPPI (2 - 4) at ALABAMA (4 - 2)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2006 2:00 PM
vs. Analysis
Both these SEC teams are struggling on offense with Ole Miss at 5-1 UNDER the total averaging 13 points per game, while Alabama is averaging just 16 per game in SEC play. The Ole Miss defense is allowing 18 points per game in SEC play and just 3.3 yards per carry. Ole Miss (2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS) gave Georgia a scare before losing 14-9 (leading 3-0 at the half). Freshman QB Brent Schaeffer has stepped in, a transfer from Tennessee, but he's raw. BenJarvis Green-Ellis ran for 102 yards and two scores and Charles Clark had a game-saving interception for Mississippi in a 17-10 victory over Vanderbilt on Saturday. Schaeffer was just 3-of-8 passing for 30 yards. Meanwhile, Alabama (4-2 SU & 2-3-1 ATS) hasn't been wowing anyone on offense, either, and played sloppy in a 30-16 win over Duke. Despite the rather “close” final score, on cannot fault Alabama for coming out flat against Duke last week coming off two mentally draining road losses at Arkansas and Florida. Attempting to regain focus against that class of opponent is a difficult task. Freshman QB John Parker Wilson is still learning and has 4 picks the last two games. The Alabama offense is averaging 24 points, 135 yards rushing, 231 passing per game.
Now my first though on this game was to simply cross it off my list of potential selections, but then I digressed and continued to look harder and harder at this game. As mentioned above, Alabama played horribly last week against a lowly Duke squad. Indeed, Alabama couldn't even get more than a two-point lead over Duke, a team who had scored one touchdown all season long, until the 56th minute of the game. The play was so awful, that they actually got booed while they were coming off the field at half time. When they came out after getting booed, the Tide outscored Duke, 20-0 in the second half. I was also concerned about laying 15.5 points on a team that is just averaging 16 points in conference play. Again I digressed and though could there potentially be a more unlikely favorite to cover this week than Alabama? There's just no way the Crimson Tide should cover this number, which is precisely why they will. Yes, Alabama's record as a home favorite is dismal (1-12 ATS at home against losing teams and 1-8 ATS in its last nine as home chalk) but then again Alabama is 7-0 SU & ATS here against Ole Miss with an average score of 32-8! The Rebel offense is in shambles. Brent Schaeffer was supposed to be the savior of Mississippi football this season but he has failed miserably. The passing game, ranked 113th in the nation, is laughable allowing teams to stack nine men in the box to stop the Rebel run. It also allows teams like Vanderbilt to dominate the Rebs on their home field. Now granted, Ole Miss was able to get the win again Vanderbilt, but in doing so they managed just 17 points and 179 total yards. Their passing game is non-existent, as Ole Miss averages just 3.95 yards per pass and 100 net yards per game. Ole Miss is also weak on defense against the pass, allowing 6.50 yards per passing play. The Rebels gave up 271 yards through the air to Vandy last week, and Bama’s John Parker Wilson should have another solid game against this defense.
I then revisited Alabama’s earlier road losses to Arkansas and Florida and what I uncovered was very telling. Alabama led by eight first downs and 87 yards in those defeats, and consider how impressive that now is off of last week’s results, with Florida handling L.S.U. and Arkansas dominating Auburn. With that being said, Alabama’s talent is as good as any in the S.E.C., and now that they have their focus back they can take out some frustrations against the outmanned Rebels. Mississippi may enter this with a perceived momentum, having played Georgia close two weeks ago and then beating Vanderbilt on Saturday, but there is nothing happening. The Bulldogs were starting a freshmen QB on the road and lacked direction, while the Commodores physically man-handled Ole Miss on Saturday, leading 23-7 in first downs and 400-179 in total offense (five turnovers did them in). With the counter perception of Alabama struggling (barely beat Duke) brings this game cheap from the lines maker. The depleted Rebel defensive front can not take the physical pounding vs. this kind of opponent on the road, and with four true freshmen seeing action on that side of the ball there is an intimidation factor here as well. The fact that Mississippi’s Head coach Ed Orgeron is just 5-11 ATS at Ole Miss cements this play. Lay the number.
Verdict: Alabama 38, Mississippi 6
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ALABAMA -16
WAKE FOREST (5 - 1) at NC STATE (3 - 2)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2006 12:00 PM
vs. Analysis
The Demon Deacons (5-1 SU & 3-2 ATS) are playing very good football again for HC Jim Grobe. Wake has a red-shirt freshman QB in Riley Skinner, because they lost starting QB Benjamin Mauk to a season-ending injury in the opener. After getting off to a 5-0 start because of some weak competition, they were given a chance to go 6-0 against Clemson on Saturday, holding a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter. But when it was all said and done, a botched field goal that could have made it 20-3 instead saw a 17-10 reach the scoreboard, with Clemson picking up the bobbled snap and returning it 66 yards for a touchdown. From that point it was a complete collapse, with Wake Forest getting out-scored 24-0 in the final period. Wake's strong ground game will get a stuff test against rejuvenated NC State. Meanwhile, NC State (3-2 SU & 2-2 ATS) has had an up and down season with little offense, averaging just 19.6 points and 162 yards passing. They've lost to Akron and got blown out by Southern Miss. But they are on a bit of a roll, pulling off a 17-15 upset of BC and a 24-20 comeback over rival Florida State. For the second time in as many starts, sophomore quarterback Daniel Evans thrilled the crowd rallying the Wolfpack from a 10-point deficit in the final period for a 24-20 victory. Evans was 13-for-22 for 190 yards with three touchdown passes, two in the fourth quarter, and Andre Brown rushed for 118 yards. The architect of the Wolfpack's comeback from its early doldrums has been Evans, who replaced Marcus Stone after N.C. State's 1-2 start. So they have finally found a QB!
There may not be a more difficult weak psychologically for a team all season than Jim Grobe’s Deacons leading up to this game. The absolutely devastating defeat at the hands of Clemson is more than just a single “loss” to drop them to 5-1; it is a crushing blow for this level of team. Now they not only have to try to regroup with a short road trip, but it is a trip to face an emerging N. C. State squad that has had a couple of extra days to prepare and using those days to review bitter memories of last year’s 27-19 loss at Greensboro, when they had two interceptions returned for touchdowns. NC State has been on a roll as of late with upsets against Boston College and Florida State (then #20 & #17) so their confidence is at a season high right now and once again Chuck Amato has put together an excellent defensive front, one that can stack up the weakest Deacon ground game in the Grobe era, one that has only produced a combined 88 rushing yards through the first two conference games, with one of them coming vs. Duke! Although I can respect Wake's 5-1 SU mark, lets not forget that they did it against lined squads with a combined 6-15 record, plus Liberty. Lay the small field goal on a series that is dominated by the host team.
Verdict: Wake Forest 14, NC State 17
OPINION SELECTION ON NC STATE -3
Comment