Friday Trends and Indexes 10/13

[Udog]

NFL - Week 6

Sunday, October 15th

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in road games
Tampa Bay: 13-4 Under vs. NFC North opponents

Tennessee at Washington, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 8-1 Over off an Under
Washington: 11-3 ATS off a division game

Houston at Dallas, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-9 ATS off a home win
Dallas: 13-4 ATS off a division loss by 10+ points

Buffalo at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 18-7 Under as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Detroit: 9-1 ATS at home off 5+ losses

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 8-1 ATS off a road game
St. Louis: 7-2 Over off a road win by 3 points or less

NY Giants at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 24-10 Over off a win by 14+ points
Atlanta: 1-10 ATS at home off a home win by 10+ points

Philadelphia at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 16-6 Over away after scoring 30+ points
New Orleans: 15-5 ATS at home off a division win

Carolina at Baltimore, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore: 14-5 Under in home games

Miami at NY Jets, 4:15 EST
Miami: 2-12 ATS vs. division opponents
NY Jets: 7-0 Over off 5+ Overs

San Diego at San Francisco, 4:15 EST
San Diego: 10-2 ATS in October
San Francisco: 12-4 Over off an ATS win

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 4:15 EST
Kansas City: 0-7 ATS away off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Pittsburgh: 9-0 Over as a home favorite

Oakland at Denver, 8:15 EST NBC
Oakland: 0-7 ATS vs. division opponents
Denver: 5-1 Under as a favorite of 10+ points

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Monday, October 16th

Chicago at Arizona, 8:30 EST ESPN
Chicago: 1-9 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
Arizona: 21-7 ATS at home off 3+ losses

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL - Week 6

Bengals (3-1) @ Buccaneers (0-4)-Tampa averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt in Gradkowski's first NFL start, after averaging 3.1/ 5.8/5.6 in Simms' three starts, so Toledo rookie passed his first test, but Bucs have given up 24+ points in three of four games, and have been outscored 61-17 in first half this season. Bengals off bye; they already have wins at Arrowhead and Heinz, two of NFL's toughest places to win, and have picked off seven passes in four games. Red flag for Cincy is 406 rushing yards they allowed in last two games. Bucs ran ball for 187 yards in loss at Saints, after running ball for total of 130 yds in first three games.

Titans (0-5) @ Redskins (2-3)-Tennessee scoring just 12 ppg, but they've had chance to win/tie in last 2:00 in three of their five losses- they held Colts scoreless in first half last week. Portis could have big day vs Titan run defense that allowed 192.8 rushing yds per game last four weeks, but with erratic nature of Redskin offense (31,36 pts in wins; 16,10,3 in losses), hard to tell if Brunell can make plays passing if Titans stack the run. In five games, Tennessee has been outscored 27-0 on first drive of third quarter, allowing very poor 60.2 yds/drive. This will be first time this year Redskins face a mobile QB.

Texans (1-3) @ Cowboys (2-2)-Houston got first win in last game before their bye, but have allowed 13 TDs on 35 drives (37.1%, worst) and forced just three turnovers, so chance for Bledsoe to silence critics who want Romo in game despite never having seen him play. Dallas has run ball for 167 yds/game over last three games, so they have balance; Cowboys allowed 10,14 pts in their wins, 24,38 in losses. Texans averaging 16.5 ppg, and got drilled 43-24 in only road game so far (@ Indy). Houston yet to gain 300+ yards in game, while allowing 441+ total yards in three of their four games; they've been outscored 24-0, outgained 247-68 on first drive of second half.

Bills (2-3) @ Lions (0-5)-Detroit already -5 in turnovers, so small improvement in offense (nine TDs on 38 drives in last three games) tempered by lack of ball security that typifies a Martz offense (seven TO's in last two games). Buffalo allowed 6,12 points in their two wins, 19-28-40 in losses; they split their two road games. Still doubt Losman's ability to make plays (10-37 on 3rd down last three games) but backing Millen Lions is like asking Devil Rays to win AL East. Last week, Detroit had 17-3 lead at Minnesota, defense held Vikings to one TD, but offense coughed up two TDs in last quarter. Detroit has yet to have edge in average field position this season and have only one sack in last four games.

Seahawks (3-1) @ Rams (4-1)-St Louis tied for NFL lead in turnover margin (+10, +8 in two home games) but lost to 49ers only time they didn't have turnover edge, pretty big red flag. Seattle off a bye and spanking in Chicago, have seven giveaways in last three games, and are probably still without Alexander here. Hawks allowed 64 points in last three halves, still hard to gauge if they have Super Bowl hangover, or how much they miss key OL Hutchinson, who left via free agency (he visits Seattle with Vikings next week). Bad stat for Rams is that they've scored eight offensive TDs, while attempting 21 FGs; good news is that despite failing often in red zone, they're still 4-1.

Giants (2-2) @ Falcons (3-1)- Think Atlanta has advantage in non-division games, as unique style of Vick's running easier to contain when you see it twice a year- they scored 32 pts in only non-division game so far, after scoring 20-14-3 vs NFC South foes. Giant defense shored up in first game after bye (held Redskins to 164 total yards, 3-11 on third down) after allowing 58.7% of third down plays to work in first three games. Atlanta surprisingly bad 16-56 on 3rd down (28.6%), but they've run ball for 252-306-262 yards in their three wins (117 in loss at Saints) and outscored foes 46-10 in two home wins. Giants have had fairly stout run defense so far (allowing 86.5 yds/game). Sandwich game for Giants, in between Redskin/Cowboy tilts.

Eagles (4-1) @ Saints (4-1)-Philly scored 38-31-38 points last three games; they've scored 3+ offensive TDs in all five games and outscored last two foes 45-3 in second half. Gritty Saints finding ways to win; four of their five games were decided by seven or less pts, but they've allowed 354 rushing yards in last two games, a red flag. Good sign for Saints is that they've yet to have edge in average starting field position, but they're 4-1; they've scored special teams TD in each of their home games. Eagles have 23 sacks in five games. Will Eagle WR Stallworth (hamstring) return to play against team that cut him this summer? Saints 3-0 vs spread as underdog this season.

Panthers (3-2) @ Ravens (4-1)-Defensive struggle expected as offensively-challenged Panthers (0-11 on 3rd down in win last week) visit Baltimore (scored 34 points total in last three games). Carolina not making plays (11-59 on 3rd down) but still won last three games; they scored 6,13 in their two losses, 26-21-20 in wins. No one has scored more than 14 on Ravens yet this year, but Baltimore playing on short week after Monday night loss in Denver. Raven OC Fassel, Panther HC Fox worked together with Giants, so some level of familiarity there. Baltimore was +10 in turnovers in first three games, are -4 in last two, as McNair tossed four picks vs Chargers, Denver.

Dolphins (1-4) @ Jets (2-3)-Tough times on both sides; Jets allowing 164.3 rushing yards per game last four weeks; they gave up 72 points in losing last two games (-7 TO ratio in those two games), and had just 45 passing yards in 41-0 loss last week. Miami scoring 12.2 ppg in awful start, with only win 13-10 at home vs 0-5 Titans; they've converted just 34% on third down, have only five TDs on 53 drives, and actually think Harrington gives them their best chance to win at QB, so you know they're grasping at straws. Dolphins are tied for best black zone defense, allowing only one TD on 19 opponent drives that started 80+ yds from goal line, but they haven't had edge in field position since Week 1.

Chargers (3-1) @ 49ers (2-3)- Marty better turn Rivers loose in this game; 49ers allowed 34-38-41 points in their losses, 13-20 in wins. 49ers scoring 26 ppg in three home games (2-1, with only loss 38-24 to Eagles). Norv Turner has helped Smith become NFL QB; Niners are 12th in NFL in TD %age (11-56). Trap game for Bolts, off Steeler win Sunday night, with Chiefs on deck; Chargers have two INT's in each of last three games; they've been + in TO's in all four games, and are allowing just 25% conversions on third down (11-44). SF defense still struggling, ranked last in NFL in red zone defense; only Jets (16) have allowed more TDs than 15 49ers gave up.

Chiefs (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)-Pittsburgh struggling badly, losing last three games; Roethlisberger has no TD passes, seven picks this year, as effects of appendectomy linger- he isn't as big or strong as last year, and Pitt is just 13-38 on third down in his three starts. Steeler defense has already allowed four TD drives of 80+ yards, while offense already has 10 giveaways. Chiefs scored 64 points in winning two post-bye games; they rallied from 14-0 down to win at Arizona last week, but Johnson hurt neck in that game, not sure of status here. Steelers outscored
39-13 in second half of last three games; they have been -5 or worse in average starting field position every game so far. QB Green still out for Chiefs, who are quickly more of a defensive team under Edwards.

Raiders (0-4) @ Broncos (3-1)- Fifteen points in divisional rivalry game is lot to spot, but you look at Oakland offense vs Bronco defense, and, it doesn't look that big anymore. Denver defense has dominated this year, allowing one TD on 41 enemy drives, which helped them survive an offense that scored one TD in its first two home games (9-6/13-3). Broncos have won 63.3% of all third down plays this year, and have yielded only one TD in opponents' ten red zone drives. Oakland is mess, allowing 28.3 ppg, going 3/out over half (52.2%) the time, with just four TDs on those 46 drives, and a -9 TO ratio. In second half of their first four games, once-proud Raiders have been outscored 64-10, sign of a team with no hope.

Chicago (5-0) @ Arizona (1-4)-Lot of transplanted Chicagoans in desert, so should be decent amount of Bear fans at rare Monday night Cardinal home game. Leinart did well enough (22-35/222 passing) in his first start, but now gets stiff test from Bear defense that has allowed only two TDs on 54 opponent drives, while forcing 15 turnovers, 18 3/outs. Grossman has emerged as passing threat (6.5+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games) which has opened up rushing game (298 yds in last two games). Loss of WR Fitzgerald (hamstring) hurts potentially explosive Cardinal offense; their QBs have been sacked 17 times in five games, but turnovers were down (1) in Leinart's first start.

[Udog]

NFL & NCAAFB - Outplay Factor

The “Outplay Factor” has become a household term as subscribers have made this powerful team strength indicator a regular part of their handicapping routine. With 5-6 weeks in the books already, we figured this would be a good time to catch up with the current Outplay Factor ratings. We listed the teams in both college and pro in order according to their current rating. We’ve also taken this week’s full betting board and calculated the theoretical spreads based on the OF and compared them to the actual lines. As you’ll see, there are a number of encouraging discrepancies.

Before we get into the current ratings though, we’d like to reintroduce the Outplay Factor to all of our readers. The term “Outplay Factor” was coined after determining that the rating being calculated in the soon to follow formula essentially indicated how well a team was either outplaying or being outplayed by its opponents. In short, it involves four different key statistics

- Offensive Points per Game: Points scored by that team
- Opponents’ Defensive Average: The combined average defensive points per game allowed for all of that teams’ opponents for the season
- Defensive Points per Game: Points against that team
- Opponents’ Offensive Average: The combined average offensive points per game scored by all of that teams’ opponents for season

Keep in mind that this particular Outplay calculation simply involves scoring. Similar calculations can be made using Yards per Play, or Total Yards stats, etc. Using scoring sets up differentials very similar to spreads, therefore, the scoring statistics were chosen as the basis for our Outplay Factor calculation. Therefore, the following is the formula for determining the Outplay Factor. For each team, determine its:

Offensive Outplay Factor = Offensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Defensive Average
then its’
Defensive Outplay Factor = Defensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Offensive Average
and finally its’
Composite Outplay Factor (COF) = Offensive Outplay Factor (OOF) – Defensive Outplay Factor (DOF)

The key to the COF formula is in subtracting the DOF, as the lower the DOF, the better the defensive performance. In fact, the good defenses have a negative DOF calculation. Therefore, when subtracting this negative number, it actually adds positively to the overall rating.

Here are the current College Football Outplay Factor Ratings as of 10/10/06, listed in order from best to worst. You’ll see that the order closely resembles the national polls. Again, this rating can be an excellent team strength indicator. An interesting thing to note on these rankings is the low positions of teams like West Virginia and Notre Dame. Perhaps these teams are ripe for upsets in the very near future.

1. OHIO ST: 30.2
2. LOUISVILLE: 27.5
3. FLORIDA: 27.2
4. MICHIGAN: 26.6
5. CALIFORNIA: 24.3
6. TENNESSEE: 22
7. LSU: 21.1
7. TEXAS: 21.1
7. USC: 21.1
10. OKLAHOMA: 19.8
11. BOISE ST: 19.1
12. CLEMSON: 17.2
13. AUBURN: 15.2
13. W VIRGINIA: 15.2
15. NEBRASKA: 15
16. TEXAS TECH: 14.1
17. MISSOURI: 13.8
18. PITTSBURGH: 13.4
19. OREGON: 13.2
20. MINNESOTA: 12.3
21. FLORIDA ST: 10.8
22. BOSTON COLLEGE: 10.7
22. HAWAII: 10.7
24. WISCONSIN: 10.5
25. AIR FORCE: 10.2
25. BYU: 10.2
27. NOTRE DAME: 9.8
28. GEORGIA TECH: 9.4
28. IOWA: 9.4
30. TEXAS A&M: 9.3
31. ALABAMA: 9.2
32. WASHINGTON ST: 8.9
33. NAVY: 8.7
34. RUTGERS: 8.1
35. TULSA: 8
36. MICHIGAN ST: 7.9
36. TCU: 7.9
38. KANSAS ST: 7.7
39. UTAH: 7.6
40. VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
41. UCLA: 7.2
42. WASHINGTON: 6.9
43. GEORGIA: 6.8
44. HOUSTON: 6.4
44. SYRACUSE: 6.4
46. OKLAHOMA ST: 6
47. MIAMI: 5.6
48. WAKE FOREST: 5.4
49. S FLORIDA: 5.2
50. MARYLAND: 5
51. E CAROLINA: 4.8
52. KANSAS: 4.7
53. ARKANSAS: 4.1
53. PENN ST: 4.1
55. KENTUCKY: 2.7
56. OREGON ST: 2.6
57. BAYLOR: 2.4
58. SOUTHERN MISS: 2.1
59. WYOMING: 2.1
60. OHIO U: 1.9
60. S CAROLINA: 1.9
62. IOWA ST: 1.7
62. NEVADA: 1.7
64. COLORADO: 1.6
65. CINCINNATI: 1
66. NEW MEXICO: 0.7
67. COLORADO ST: 0.4
67. INDIANA: 0.4
69. ARIZONA ST: 0.2
69. N ILLINOIS: 0.2
69. NC STATE: 0.2
72. VIRGINIA: 0.1
73. UTEP: -0.3
74. PURDUE: -0.5
75. BALL ST: -1
76. C MICHIGAN: -1.8
77. FRESNO ST: -3
78. W MICHIGAN: -3.1
79. VANDERBILT: -3.2
80. MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
81. KENT ST: -3.8
82. N CAROLINA: -3.9
83. ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
84. ARIZONA: -4.3
85. ILLINOIS: -4.6
86. ARMY: -4.9
87. UAB: -5
88. CONNECTICUT: -5.2
88. RICE: -5.2
90. LA LAFAYETTE: -5.7
91. C FLORIDA: -5.8
92. BOWLING GREEN: -6.2
92. MARSHALL: -6.2
94. AKRON: -6.5
94. SMU: -6.5
96. MIDDLE TENN ST: -7
96. SAN JOSE ST: -7
98. NORTHWESTERN: -7.4
99. MISSISSIPPI ST: -7.9
100. TOLEDO: -9.2
101. UNLV: -9.7
102. SAN DIEGO ST: -9.8
103. TROY ST: -10.5
104. MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
105. DUKE: -11.2
105. MEMPHIS: -11.2
107. FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
108. NEW MEXICO ST: -12
109. TULANE: -12.1
110. NORTH TEXAS: -13
111. STANFORD: -14.3
112. LA MONROE: -14.4
113. IDAHO: -15
114. LOUISIANA TECH: -17.1
115. E MICHIGAN: -18.2
116. BUFFALO: -20.4
117. UTAH ST: -22.8
118. FLA ATLANTIC: -23.2
119. TEMPLE: -27.1

These are the current pro Outplay Factor rankings heading into week six. Again, note some of the unusual figures. Unbeaten Indianapolis ranks just 13th in the NFL, and Chicago’s 18.7 rating, if it were to hold up, would surpass the ’96 Green Bay Packers rating of 15.7 as the best in the last 15 years.

1. CHICAGO: 18.7
2. SAN DIEGO: 10.1
3. DENVER: 10
4. JACKSONVILLE: 8.8
5. DALLAS: 7.5
6. PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
7. BALTIMORE: 6.1
8. KANSAS CITY: 5.1
9. NY GIANTS: 4.9
10. NEW ENGLAND: 4.4
11. CINCINNATI: 4.3
12. ATLANTA: 4
13. INDIANAPOLIS: 2.3
13. NEW ORLEANS: 2.3
15. MINNESOTA: 2.2
16. PITTSBURGH: 1.7
17. SEATTLE: 0.9
18. CAROLINA: -1.1
19. WASHINGTON: -1.5
20. BUFFALO: -1.8
21. GREEN BAY: -3.4
22. ST LOUIS: -3.7
23. ARIZONA: -4.8
24. CLEVELAND: -5.4
25. TAMPA BAY: -5.5
26. NY JETS: -6.8
27. DETROIT: -7.3
28. SAN FRANCISCO: -8.5
29. HOUSTON: -9.3
30. TENNESSEE: -11.5
31. MIAMI: -11.9
32. OAKLAND: -13.6

Using the Outplay Factor Ratings, we are able to come up with a theoretical spread in a game involving two teams, simply by comparing the teams’ individual ratings and crediting the hosts 4-points for home field advantage. For example, looking ahead to the huge season finale between Michigan and Ohio State, the host Buckeyes would be a 7.6–point favorite (30.2-26.6+4).

Using that logic, here are the theoretical Outplay Factor spreads vs. the actual for all 52 college and 13 pro games this weekend. The 4-point home-field edge is built into the home team’s rating:

Thu - 10/12 (301) TEMPLE: -27.1
7:30 PM (302) CLEMSON: 17.2

Actual Line: -44 OF Line: -44.3, Edge: CLEMSON - 0.3

Thu - 10/12 (303) VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
7:30 PM (304) BOSTON COLLEGE: 14.7
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: -7.2, Edge: BOSTON COLLEGE - 9.7

Thu - 10/12 (305) COLORADO ST: 0.4
8:00 PM (306) AIR FORCE: 14.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -13.8, Edge: AIR FORCE - 8.3

Fri - 10/13 (307) PITTSBURGH: 13.4
8:00 PM (308) C FLORIDA: -1.8
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +15.2, Edge: PITTSBURGH - 5.2

Sat - 10/14 (309) SYRACUSE: 6.4
12:00 PM (310) W VIRGINIA: 19.2
Actual Line: -25 OF Line: -12.8, Edge: SYRACUSE - 12.2

Sat - 10/14 (313) MINNESOTA: 12.3
12:00 PM (314) WISCONSIN: 14.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -2.2, Edge: MINNESOTA - 6.3

Sat - 10/14 (327) ARMY: -4.9
12:00 PM (328) CONNECTICUT: -1.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: ARMY - 1.8

Sat - 10/14 (317) WAKE FOREST: 5.4
12:00 PM (318) NC STATE: 4.2
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: +1.2, Edge: WAKE FOREST - 5.2

Sat - 10/14 (321) S FLORIDA: 5.2
12:00 PM (322) N CAROLINA: 0.1
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: +5.1, Edge: S FLORIDA - 2.6

Sat - 10/14 (311) PURDUE: -0.5
12:00 PM (312) NORTHWESTERN: -3.4
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +2.9, Edge: NORTHWESTERN - 4.1

Sat - 10/14 (315) IOWA: 9.4
12:00 PM (316) INDIANA: 4.4
Actual Line: +17.5 OF Line: +5, Edge: INDIANA - 12.5

Sat - 10/14 (325) BALL ST: -1
1:00 PM (326) C MICHIGAN: 2.2
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -3.2, Edge: BALL ST - 6.3

Sat - 10/14 (323) MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
1:00 PM (324) BUFFALO: -16.4
Actual Line: +8.5 OF Line: +5.7, Edge: BUFFALO - 2.8

Sat - 10/14 (353) FLORIDA ST: 10.8
1:00 PM (354) DUKE: -7.2
Actual Line: +23 OF Line: +18, Edge: DUKE - 5

Sat - 10/14 (329) RUTGERS: 8.1
1:30 PM (330) NAVY: 12.7
Actual Line: -1 OF Line: -4.6, Edge: NAVY - 3.6

Sat - 10/14 (379) OKLAHOMA ST: 6
2:00 PM (380) KANSAS: 8.7
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -2.7, Edge: OKLAHOMA ST - 0.3

Sat - 10/14 (337) MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
2:00 PM (338) ALABAMA: 13.2
Actual Line: -16 OF Line: -16.8, Edge: ALABAMA - 0.8

Sat - 10/14 (335) N ILLINOIS: 0.2
2:00 PM (336) W MICHIGAN: 0.9
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: -0.7, Edge: W MICHIGAN - 2.7

Sat - 10/14 (399) ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
2:00 PM (400) MEMPHIS: -7.2
Actual Line: -11.5 OF Line: +3, Edge: ARKANSAS ST - 14.5

Sat - 10/14 (331) MISSOURI: 13.8
2:00 PM (332) TEXAS A&M: 13.3
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: +0.5, Edge: TEXAS A&M - 1.5

Sat - 10/14 (333) NEBRASKA: 15
2:00 PM (334) KANSAS ST: 11.7
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +3.3, Edge: KANSAS ST - 7.2

Sat - 10/14 (343) MARSHALL: -6.2
3:00 PM (344) SMU: -2.5
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: MARSHALL - 0.3

Sat - 10/14 (341) TULSA: 8
3:00 PM (342) E CAROLINA: 8.8
Actual Line: +1.5 OF Line: -0.8, Edge: E CAROLINA - 2.3

Sat - 10/14 (339) UTAH: 7.6
3:00 PM (340) WYOMING: 6.1
Actual Line: +4 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: WYOMING - 2.5

Sat - 10/14 (355) OREGON ST: 2.6
3:30 PM (356) WASHINGTON: 10.9
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -8.3, Edge: OREGON ST - 1.2

Sat - 10/14 (349) VANDERBILT: -3.2
3:30 PM (350) GEORGIA: 10.8
Actual Line: -14.5 OF Line: -14, Edge: VANDERBILT - 0.5

Sat - 10/14 (357) UCLA: 7.2
3:30 PM (358) OREGON: 17.2
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -10, Edge: None - 0

Sat - 10/14 (363) IOWA ST: 1.7
3:30 PM (364) OKLAHOMA: 23.8
Actual Line: -19.5 OF Line: -22.1, Edge: OKLAHOMA - 2.6

Sat - 10/14 (375) CINCINNATI: 1
3:30 PM (376) LOUISVILLE: 31.5
Actual Line: -27 OF Line: -30.5, Edge: LOUISVILLE - 3.5

Sat - 10/14 (351) OHIO ST: 30.2
3:30 PM (352) MICHIGAN ST: 11.9
Actual Line: +15 OF Line: +18.3, Edge: OHIO ST - 3.3

Sat - 10/14 (381) TEXAS TECH: 14.1
3:30 PM (382) COLORADO: 5.6
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +8.5, Edge: TEXAS TECH - 1.5

Sat - 10/14 (319) MARYLAND: 5
3:30 PM (320) VIRGINIA: 4.1
Actual Line: +5 OF Line: +0.9, Edge: VIRGINIA - 4.1

Sat - 10/14 (401) LA MONROE: -14.4
4:00 PM (402) TROY ST: -6.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -7.9, Edge: LA MONROE - 0.6

Sat - 10/14 (359) TOLEDO: -9.2
4:00 PM (360) KENT ST: 0.2
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -9.4, Edge: KENT ST - 2.4

Sat - 10/14 (361) E MICHIGAN: -18.2
4:00 PM (362) BOWLING GREEN: -2.2
Actual Line: -11 OF Line: -16, Edge: BOWLING GREEN - 5

Sat - 10/14 (365) HAWAII: 10.7
5:00 PM (366) FRESNO ST: 1
Actual Line: +4.5 OF Line: +9.7, Edge: HAWAII - 5.2

Sat - 10/14 (347) CALIFORNIA: 24.3
5:00 PM (348) WASHINGTON ST: 12.9
Actual Line: +8 OF Line: +11.4, Edge: CALIFORNIA - 3.4

Sat - 10/14 (367) ARIZONA: -4.3
5:00 PM (368) STANFORD: -10.3
Actual Line: +3.5 OF Line: +6, Edge: ARIZONA - 2.5

Sat - 10/14 (369) UTAH ST: -22.8
6:00 PM (370) SAN JOSE ST: -3
Actual Line: -14 OF Line: -19.8, Edge: SAN JOSE ST - 5.8

Sat - 10/14 (397) FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
7:00 PM (398) MIAMI: 9.6
Actual Line: -28 OF Line: -20.9, Edge: FLA INTERNATIONAL - 7.1

Sat - 10/14 (383) BAYLOR: 2.4
7:00 PM (384) TEXAS: 25.1
Actual Line: -28.5 OF Line: -22.7, Edge: BAYLOR - 5.8

Sat - 10/14 (387) KENTUCKY: 2.7
7:00 PM (388) LSU: 25.1
Actual Line: -26.5 OF Line: -22.4, Edge: KENTUCKY - 4.1

Sat - 10/14 (385) IDAHO: -15
7:00 PM (386) LOUISIANA TECH: -13.1
Actual Line: -2.5 OF Line: -1.9, Edge: IDAHO - 0.6

Sat - 10/14 (373) OHIO U: 1.9
7:00 PM (374) ILLINOIS: -0.6
Actual Line: -6.5 OF Line: +2.5, Edge: OHIO U - 9

Sat - 10/14 (377) HOUSTON: 6.4
7:00 PM (378) SOUTHERN MISS: 6.1
Actual Line: -2 OF Line: +0.3, Edge: HOUSTON - 2.3

Sat - 10/14 (371) UAB: -5
7:30 PM (372) RICE: -1.2
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: -3.8, Edge: RICE - 9.8

Sat - 10/14 (345) FLORIDA: 27.2
7:45 PM (346) AUBURN: 19.2
Actual Line: +0 OF Line: +8, Edge: FLORIDA - 8

Sat - 10/14 (389) ARIZONA ST: 0.2
8:00 PM (390) USC: 25.1
Actual Line: -19 OF Line: -24.9, Edge: USC - 5.9

Sat - 10/14 (391) MICHIGAN: 26.6
8:00 PM (392) PENN ST: 8.1
Actual Line: +6.5 OF Line: +18.5, Edge: MICHIGAN - 12

Sat - 10/14 (393) TULANE: -12.1
9:00 PM (394) UTEP: 3.7
Actual Line: -12.5 OF Line: -15.8, Edge: UTEP - 3.3

Sat - 10/14 (395) NEW MEXICO: 0.7
10:00 PM (396) UNLV: -5.7
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +6.4, Edge: NEW MEXICO - 3.4

Sun - 10/15 (413) NY GIANTS: 4.9
1:00 PM (414) ATLANTA: 8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -3.1, Edge: ATLANTA - 0.1

Sun - 10/15 (405) TENNESSEE: -11.5
1:00 PM (406) WASHINGTON: 2.5
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -14, Edge: WASHINGTON - 4

Sun - 10/15 (407) HOUSTON: -9.3
1:00 PM (408) DALLAS: 11.5
Actual Line: -13 OF Line: -20.8, Edge: DALLAS - 7.8

Sun - 10/15 (417) CAROLINA: -1.1
1:00 PM (418) BALTIMORE: 10.1
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -11.2, Edge: BALTIMORE - 8.2

Sun - 10/15 (409) BUFFALO: -1.8
1:00 PM (410) DETROIT: -3.3
Actual Line: +1 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: BUFFALO - 0.5

Sun - 10/15 (403) CINCINNATI: 4.3
1:00 PM (404) TAMPA BAY: -1.5
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: +5.8, Edge: TAMPA BAY - 0.2

Sun - 10/15 (415) PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
1:00 PM (416) NEW ORLEANS: 6.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.8, Edge: NEW ORLEANS - 2.2

Sun - 10/15 (411) SEATTLE: 0.9
1:00 PM (412) ST LOUIS: 0.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.6, Edge: ST LOUIS - 2.4

Sun - 10/15 (423) KANSAS CITY: 5.1
4:15 PM (424) PITTSBURGH: 5.7
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -0.6, Edge: KANSAS CITY - 6.4

Sun - 10/15 (419) MIAMI: -11.9
4:15 PM (420) NY JETS: -2.8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -9.1, Edge: NY JETS - 6.1

Sun - 10/15 (421) SAN DIEGO: 10.1
4:15 PM (422) SAN FRANCISCO: -4.5
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +14.6, Edge: SAN DIEGO - 4.6

Sun - 10/15 (427) BOISE ST: 19.1
8:00 PM (428) NEW MEXICO ST: -8
Actual Line: +26.5 OF Line: +27.1, Edge: BOISE ST - 0.6

Sun - 10/15 (425) OAKLAND: -13.6
8:15 PM (426) DENVER: 14
Actual Line: -15 OF Line: -27.6, Edge: DENVER - 12.6

Mon - 10/16 (429) CHICAGO: 18.7
8:30 PM (430) ARIZONA: -0.8
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +19.5, Edge: CHICAGO - 9

[djmauiboy]

American League Championship Series
Game Three
TV: FOX
Tigers lead, 2-0
Oakland at Detroit, 4:35 EST
Rich Harden (R) vs. Kenny Rogers (L)

Harden:
Oakland 11-3 Under revenging BB home losses
Oakland 24-12 Under after allowing 8+ runs

Rogers:
12-1 TSR at home pitching on 5 or 6 days rest
18-4 TSR in night games

[Udog]

NCAAFB
Six-Pack for Friday

Six college football trends to think about for Week 6......

-- Marshall is 9-23-1 vs spread in its last 33 conference road games.
-- Home side covered ten of last 14 Hawai'i-Fresno games.
-- Visitor is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 Purdue-Northwestern games.
-- Favorite is 13-4-1 vs the spread in last 18 West Virginia-Syracuse games.
-- Oklahoma is 7-3 vs spread in game following the Texas game the last ten years.
-- Ohio State failed to cover last week, for first time in 12 games.

[Udog]

MLB - ALCS

Pro Baseball Trend Report

OAKLAND (96 - 71) at DETROIT (100 - 68) - 4:35 PM
RICH HARDEN (R) vs. KENNY ROGERS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 101-68 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 93-59 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 64-35 (+21.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ROGERS is 26-9 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
ROGERS is 34-11 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ROGERS is 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ROGERS is 25-8 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
ROGERS is 35-16 (+17.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 96-71 (+20.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 46-37 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 16-5 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
OAKLAND is 43-21 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
OAKLAND is 88-62 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 47-36 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 29-21 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HARDEN is 10-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
HARDEN is 10-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 56-106 (-45.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.
DETROIT is 13-17 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season.
DETROIT is 32-48 (-23.8 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 7-4 (+3.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.4 Units)



RICH HARDEN vs. DETROIT since 1997
HARDEN is 3-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.644.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)



KENNY ROGERS vs. OAKLAND since 1997
ROGERS is 11-3 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.77 and a WHIP of 1.479.
His team's record is 15-9 (+8.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 13-11. (+1.0 units)

[Udog]

MLB - ALCS

Key Performance Information
OAKLAND
in all games
96-71 This season | 275-218 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 8 to 8.5
25-24 This season | 99-87 Last 3 seasons

as a road underdog of +125 to +150
8-11 This season | 22-30 Last 3 seasons

in road games
46-37 This season | 128-119 Last 3 seasons

on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
9-9 This season | 38-35 Last 3 seasons

in October games
4-2 This season | 7-4 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Friday
16-12 This season | 45-35 Last 3 seasons

when playing with a day off
16-5 This season | 34-21 Last 3 seasons

in day games
43-21 This season | 116-67 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
88-62 This season | 253-197 Last 3 seasons

against left-handed starters
24-19 This season | 79-54 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
3-2 This season | 3-2 Last 3 seasons

after a loss
38-31 This season | 110-106 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
47-36 This season | 133-115 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
29-21 This season | 73-64 Last 3 seasons


DETROIT
in all games
101-68 This season | 244-249 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 8 to 8.5
25-19 This season | 56-58 Last 3 seasons

as a home favorite of -125 to -150
17-9 This season | 30-25 Last 3 seasons

in home games
48-35 This season | 125-120 Last 3 seasons

at home when the total is 8 to 8.5
10-9 This season | 28-32 Last 3 seasons

in October games
5-2 This season | 6-6 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Friday
19-8 This season | 42-34 Last 3 seasons

when playing with a day off
12-6 This season | 27-27 Last 3 seasons

in day games
31-30 This season | 81-95 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
93-59 This season | 220-223 Last 3 seasons

against right-handed starters
66-48 This season | 164-171 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
5-1 This season | 5-1 Last 3 seasons

after a win
64-35 This season | 130-112 Last 3 seasons

after 3 or more consecutive wins
28-14 This season | 40-32 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
38-41 This season | 119-151 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
25-28 This season | 63-91 Last 3 seasons

[Udog]

NHL

Pro Hockey Trend Report

TAMPA BAY (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) at FLORIDA (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/13/2006, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 11-4 ATS (+15.1 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 57-93 ATS (-40.4 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
FLORIDA is 67-102 ATS (-37.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
FLORIDA is 161-184 ATS (-26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
FLORIDA is 181-257 ATS (-131.3 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line since 1996.
FLORIDA is 163-196 ATS (+163.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 6-2 (+5.8 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 6-2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)




CAROLINA (0-3-0-1, 1 pts.) at ATLANTA (3-0-0-1, 7 pts.) - 10/13/2006, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 5-18 ATS (+29.7 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-4 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-4-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)




BUFFALO (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) at DETROIT (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/13/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 75-27 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
BUFFALO is 66-37 ATS (+23.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 66-37 ATS (+23.5 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 32-21 ATS (+57.9 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 32-21 ATS (+57.9 Units) in road games against the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 30-20 ATS (+54.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 29-13 ATS (+14.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 24-15 ATS (+8.4 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 28-13 ATS (+12.9 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 20-7 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 31-24 ATS (+58.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 66-37 ATS (+23.5 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 32-21 ATS (+57.9 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-11 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




SAN JOSE (3-1-0-0, 6 pts.) at VANCOUVER (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/13/2006, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 5-15 ATS (-14.4 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 176-192 ATS (+176.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 89-104 ATS (+89.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 2-2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

[Udog]

Well, I duplicated you again, dj!! Two or three times, I think. I'll try to be more careful.

I'm on DSL and some pages don't automatically refresh. I have to manually do it to see if anything else has been added. I'll try to be a little more thorough.

[djmauiboy]

Groundhog Day , Groundhog Day

Where's Bill Murray?

[Udog]

dj: "Groundhog Day"

LOL!!!!! Really!!

[vinnyvegas]

Awesome job guys. Thx for the work.

[vinnyvegas]

HOMECOMING GAMES THIS WK/END

DATE HOME/VISITOR
14-Oct Arkansas SE Missouri St.
14-Oct Bowling Green E. Michigan
14-Oct Georgia Vanderbilt
14-Oct LA Tech Idaho
14-Oct Louisville Cincinnati
14-Oct Mississippi St. Jacksonville St.
14-Oct Navy Rutgers
14-Oct San Jose St. Utah St.
14-Oct So. Miss Houston
14-Oct Washington St. California
14-Oct W. Virginia Syracuse
14-Oct W. Michigan No. Illinois
14-Oct Wisconsin Minnesota
14-Oct Wyoming Utah

[Udog]

Thanks for the home-coming list, Vinny!
I used this list last week and am really glad to see it back! Good luck today!

[Spark]

Great job guys and thanks ...

If you want to delete any post just give me the post number ...

Good Luck