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No surprise here...
Bears vs Chargers according to my Excel Program.
Developed in the Spring of 2005, I ran the (then) retrospective stats from 2004. After each team had five games under their belt, it correctly predicted a Philly-New England Matchup.
Using the same program, it correctly predicted a *Steelers-Seahawks matchup last season after each team had five games under their belt.
*Note: Last season I had posted a Colts-Seahawks Matchup at this site, but that was based on a more vanilla version of my program. Due to my being on the run after Katrina, I was not able to maintain the program using "strength of schedule". After getting settled down, I ran the numbers using the complete program and it projected the Steelers.
While all teams have not yet played five games, it is virtually impossible for this weekend's games to change the power ratings enough to alter the outcome of a Bears-Chargers SB Matchup.
Last season the Steeler's rating was less than 1/2 of a percentage point higher than the Colts after each NFL team had played five games, using the full program including strength of schedule, but...
...going into this weekend's games, the Bears have a 4-pt rating advantage over Philly. If Chicago loses by a field goal to Arizona and is outyarded by 200 yards...AND...the Eagles beat the Saints by two touchdowns and outyard them by 200 yards, even at that, the Bear's power rating would remain 2.5 points higher.
In the AFC, the Chargers maintain a Solid 7-point advantage over the Patriots. New England has a bye and the Chargers are ten-point faves and not likely to lose so bad as to lose a 7-pt advantage.
Other notables (although they could change this weekend) is that the Jags are the pick to win the AFC South, the Panthers miss the playoffs, and the Pats and Eagles go the their respective Championship games.
So who wins the Superbowl between the Bears and Chargers? There is only about a 1-pt difference in their power ratings. So we'll have to see if this weekend's events changes the official prediction, which is typically made after all teams have five games under their belt. Using the current numbers, the Bears win.
dt
Bears vs Chargers according to my Excel Program.
Developed in the Spring of 2005, I ran the (then) retrospective stats from 2004. After each team had five games under their belt, it correctly predicted a Philly-New England Matchup.
Using the same program, it correctly predicted a *Steelers-Seahawks matchup last season after each team had five games under their belt.
*Note: Last season I had posted a Colts-Seahawks Matchup at this site, but that was based on a more vanilla version of my program. Due to my being on the run after Katrina, I was not able to maintain the program using "strength of schedule". After getting settled down, I ran the numbers using the complete program and it projected the Steelers.
While all teams have not yet played five games, it is virtually impossible for this weekend's games to change the power ratings enough to alter the outcome of a Bears-Chargers SB Matchup.
Last season the Steeler's rating was less than 1/2 of a percentage point higher than the Colts after each NFL team had played five games, using the full program including strength of schedule, but...
...going into this weekend's games, the Bears have a 4-pt rating advantage over Philly. If Chicago loses by a field goal to Arizona and is outyarded by 200 yards...AND...the Eagles beat the Saints by two touchdowns and outyard them by 200 yards, even at that, the Bear's power rating would remain 2.5 points higher.
In the AFC, the Chargers maintain a Solid 7-point advantage over the Patriots. New England has a bye and the Chargers are ten-point faves and not likely to lose so bad as to lose a 7-pt advantage.
Other notables (although they could change this weekend) is that the Jags are the pick to win the AFC South, the Panthers miss the playoffs, and the Pats and Eagles go the their respective Championship games.
So who wins the Superbowl between the Bears and Chargers? There is only about a 1-pt difference in their power ratings. So we'll have to see if this weekend's events changes the official prediction, which is typically made after all teams have five games under their belt. Using the current numbers, the Bears win.
dt
It's always noon somewhere! 
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