Thursday Trends and Indexes

[Udog]

"udogg, don't eat all the krispy kremes."

Too late! And, boy, are these truckers all steamed!!!!!

[Udog]

NHL - DUNKEL - Thur.

Toronto has already enjoyed success on the road as the Leafs blanked Ottawa (6-0) back on October 5. Tonight they come to New Jersey where they have not lost to the Devils in nearly three years. Toronto beat New Jersey in all four meetings last year and has won the last five overall. The Leafs look like a good play getting the goal line in this one according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 9.988; NY Rangers 11.375
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Neutral

Game 3-4: Toronto at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.530; New Jersey 11.523
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1 1/2); Over

Game 5-6: Calgary at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.094; Ottawa 12.094
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+1 1/2); Under

Game 7-8: Boston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.411; St. Louis 9.755
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+1 1/2); Over

Game 9-10: Washington at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.134; Minnesota 11.624
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under

Game 11-12: Nashville at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.050; Chicago 10.323
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Over

Game 13-14: San Jose at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.474; Edmonton 12.276
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+1 1/2); Under

Game 15-16: Dallas at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.024; Los Angeles 11.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; Under

[djmauiboy]

quick ref

Colorado State at Air Force, 8:00 EST CSTV

Colorado State: 22-10 ATS away off a win by 17+ points
Air Force: 11-3 Over vs. conference opponents


---------------------------------------

Underdog is 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 Air Force-Colorado St games; Rams won four of last five in series, but they covered only two of last ten Moutain West road games. Colorado State was 18-29/338 passing last year, outgaining Falcons 551-357 in 41-23 win. Air Force had tough loss vs Navy last week; they're 1-3 vs spread in last four weeknight games. Average total in last five series games is 54

------------------------------------

COLORADO ST (4 - 1) at AIR FORCE (2 - 2) - 10/12/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



---------------------------------
Game 305-306: Colorado State at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 87.468; Air Force 88.933
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Air Force by 5 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+5 1/2); Under


AIR FORCE- www.airforcesports.com

COLO ST. - www.csurams.com

[djmauiboy]

The “Outplay Factor” has become a household term as subscribers have made this powerful team strength indicator a regular part of their handicapping routine. With 5-6 weeks in the books already, we figured this would be a good time to catch up with the current Outplay Factor ratings. We listed the teams in both college and pro in order according to their current rating. We’ve also taken this week’s full betting board and calculated the theoretical spreads based on the OF and compared them to the actual lines. As you’ll see, there are a number of encouraging discrepancies.

Before we get into the current ratings though, we’d like to reintroduce the Outplay Factor to all of our readers. The term “Outplay Factor” was coined after determining that the rating being calculated in the soon to follow formula essentially indicated how well a team was either outplaying or being outplayed by its opponents. In short, it involves four different key statistics

- Offensive Points per Game: Points scored by that team
- Opponents’ Defensive Average: The combined average defensive points per game allowed for all of that teams’ opponents for the season
- Defensive Points per Game: Points against that team
- Opponents’ Offensive Average: The combined average offensive points per game scored by all of that teams’ opponents for season

Keep in mind that this particular Outplay calculation simply involves scoring. Similar calculations can be made using Yards per Play, or Total Yards stats, etc. Using scoring sets up differentials very similar to spreads, therefore, the scoring statistics were chosen as the basis for our Outplay Factor calculation. Therefore, the following is the formula for determining the Outplay Factor. For each team, determine its:

Offensive Outplay Factor = Offensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Defensive Average
then its’
Defensive Outplay Factor = Defensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Offensive Average
and finally its’
Composite Outplay Factor (COF) = Offensive Outplay Factor (OOF) – Defensive Outplay Factor (DOF)

The key to the COF formula is in subtracting the DOF, as the lower the DOF, the better the defensive performance. In fact, the good defenses have a negative DOF calculation. Therefore, when subtracting this negative number, it actually adds positively to the overall rating.

Here are the current College Football Outplay Factor Ratings as of 10/10/06, listed in order from best to worst. You’ll see that the order closely resembles the national polls. Again, this rating can be an excellent team strength indicator. An interesting thing to note on these rankings is the low positions of teams like West Virginia and Notre Dame. Perhaps these teams are ripe for upsets in the very near future.

1. OHIO ST: 30.2
2. LOUISVILLE: 27.5
3. FLORIDA: 27.2
4. MICHIGAN: 26.6
5. CALIFORNIA: 24.3
6. TENNESSEE: 22
7. LSU: 21.1
7. TEXAS: 21.1
7. USC: 21.1
10. OKLAHOMA: 19.8
11. BOISE ST: 19.1
12. CLEMSON: 17.2
13. AUBURN: 15.2
13. W VIRGINIA: 15.2
15. NEBRASKA: 15
16. TEXAS TECH: 14.1
17. MISSOURI: 13.8
18. PITTSBURGH: 13.4
19. OREGON: 13.2
20. MINNESOTA: 12.3
21. FLORIDA ST: 10.8
22. BOSTON COLLEGE: 10.7
22. HAWAII: 10.7
24. WISCONSIN: 10.5
25. AIR FORCE: 10.2
25. BYU: 10.2
27. NOTRE DAME: 9.8
28. GEORGIA TECH: 9.4
28. IOWA: 9.4
30. TEXAS A&M: 9.3
31. ALABAMA: 9.2
32. WASHINGTON ST: 8.9
33. NAVY: 8.7
34. RUTGERS: 8.1
35. TULSA: 8
36. MICHIGAN ST: 7.9
36. TCU: 7.9
38. KANSAS ST: 7.7
39. UTAH: 7.6
40. VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
41. UCLA: 7.2
42. WASHINGTON: 6.9
43. GEORGIA: 6.8
44. HOUSTON: 6.4
44. SYRACUSE: 6.4
46. OKLAHOMA ST: 6
47. MIAMI: 5.6
48. WAKE FOREST: 5.4
49. S FLORIDA: 5.2
50. MARYLAND: 5
51. E CAROLINA: 4.8
52. KANSAS: 4.7
53. ARKANSAS: 4.1
53. PENN ST: 4.1
55. KENTUCKY: 2.7
56. OREGON ST: 2.6
57. BAYLOR: 2.4
58. SOUTHERN MISS: 2.1
59. WYOMING: 2.1
60. OHIO U: 1.9
60. S CAROLINA: 1.9
62. IOWA ST: 1.7
62. NEVADA: 1.7
64. COLORADO: 1.6
65. CINCINNATI: 1
66. NEW MEXICO: 0.7
67. COLORADO ST: 0.4
67. INDIANA: 0.4
69. ARIZONA ST: 0.2
69. N ILLINOIS: 0.2
69. NC STATE: 0.2
72. VIRGINIA: 0.1
73. UTEP: -0.3
74. PURDUE: -0.5
75. BALL ST: -1
76. C MICHIGAN: -1.8
77. FRESNO ST: -3
78. W MICHIGAN: -3.1
79. VANDERBILT: -3.2
80. MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
81. KENT ST: -3.8
82. N CAROLINA: -3.9
83. ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
84. ARIZONA: -4.3
85. ILLINOIS: -4.6
86. ARMY: -4.9
87. UAB: -5
88. CONNECTICUT: -5.2
88. RICE: -5.2
90. LA LAFAYETTE: -5.7
91. C FLORIDA: -5.8
92. BOWLING GREEN: -6.2
92. MARSHALL: -6.2
94. AKRON: -6.5
94. SMU: -6.5
96. MIDDLE TENN ST: -7
96. SAN JOSE ST: -7
98. NORTHWESTERN: -7.4
99. MISSISSIPPI ST: -7.9
100. TOLEDO: -9.2
101. UNLV: -9.7
102. SAN DIEGO ST: -9.8
103. TROY ST: -10.5
104. MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
105. DUKE: -11.2
105. MEMPHIS: -11.2
107. FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
108. NEW MEXICO ST: -12
109. TULANE: -12.1
110. NORTH TEXAS: -13
111. STANFORD: -14.3
112. LA MONROE: -14.4
113. IDAHO: -15
114. LOUISIANA TECH: -17.1
115. E MICHIGAN: -18.2
116. BUFFALO: -20.4
117. UTAH ST: -22.8
118. FLA ATLANTIC: -23.2
119. TEMPLE: -27.1

These are the current pro Outplay Factor rankings heading into week six. Again, note some of the unusual figures. Unbeaten Indianapolis ranks just 13th in the NFL, and Chicago’s 18.7 rating, if it were to hold up, would surpass the ’96 Green Bay Packers rating of 15.7 as the best in the last 15 years.

1. CHICAGO: 18.7
2. SAN DIEGO: 10.1
3. DENVER: 10
4. JACKSONVILLE: 8.8
5. DALLAS: 7.5
6. PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
7. BALTIMORE: 6.1
8. KANSAS CITY: 5.1
9. NY GIANTS: 4.9
10. NEW ENGLAND: 4.4
11. CINCINNATI: 4.3
12. ATLANTA: 4
13. INDIANAPOLIS: 2.3
13. NEW ORLEANS: 2.3
15. MINNESOTA: 2.2
16. PITTSBURGH: 1.7
17. SEATTLE: 0.9
18. CAROLINA: -1.1
19. WASHINGTON: -1.5
20. BUFFALO: -1.8
21. GREEN BAY: -3.4
22. ST LOUIS: -3.7
23. ARIZONA: -4.8
24. CLEVELAND: -5.4
25. TAMPA BAY: -5.5
26. NY JETS: -6.8
27. DETROIT: -7.3
28. SAN FRANCISCO: -8.5
29. HOUSTON: -9.3
30. TENNESSEE: -11.5
31. MIAMI: -11.9
32. OAKLAND: -13.6

Using the Outplay Factor Ratings, we are able to come up with a theoretical spread in a game involving two teams, simply by comparing the teams’ individual ratings and crediting the hosts 4-points for home field advantage. For example, looking ahead to the huge season finale between Michigan and Ohio State, the host Buckeyes would be a 7.6–point favorite (30.2-26.6+4).

Using that logic, here are the theoretical Outplay Factor spreads vs. the actual for all 52 college and 13 pro games this weekend. The 4-point home-field edge is built into the home team’s rating:

Thu - 10/12 (301) TEMPLE: -27.1
7:30 PM (302) CLEMSON: 17.2

Actual Line: -44 OF Line: -44.3, Edge: CLEMSON - 0.3

Thu - 10/12 (303) VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
7:30 PM (304) BOSTON COLLEGE: 14.7
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: -7.2, Edge: BOSTON COLLEGE - 9.7

Thu - 10/12 (305) COLORADO ST: 0.4
8:00 PM (306) AIR FORCE: 14.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -13.8, Edge: AIR FORCE - 8.3

Fri - 10/13 (307) PITTSBURGH: 13.4
8:00 PM (308) C FLORIDA: -1.8
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +15.2, Edge: PITTSBURGH - 5.2

Sat - 10/14 (309) SYRACUSE: 6.4
12:00 PM (310) W VIRGINIA: 19.2
Actual Line: -25 OF Line: -12.8, Edge: SYRACUSE - 12.2

Sat - 10/14 (313) MINNESOTA: 12.3
12:00 PM (314) WISCONSIN: 14.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -2.2, Edge: MINNESOTA - 6.3

Sat - 10/14 (327) ARMY: -4.9
12:00 PM (328) CONNECTICUT: -1.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: ARMY - 1.8

Sat - 10/14 (317) WAKE FOREST: 5.4
12:00 PM (318) NC STATE: 4.2
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: +1.2, Edge: WAKE FOREST - 5.2

Sat - 10/14 (321) S FLORIDA: 5.2
12:00 PM (322) N CAROLINA: 0.1
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: +5.1, Edge: S FLORIDA - 2.6

Sat - 10/14 (311) PURDUE: -0.5
12:00 PM (312) NORTHWESTERN: -3.4
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +2.9, Edge: NORTHWESTERN - 4.1

Sat - 10/14 (315) IOWA: 9.4
12:00 PM (316) INDIANA: 4.4
Actual Line: +17.5 OF Line: +5, Edge: INDIANA - 12.5

Sat - 10/14 (325) BALL ST: -1
1:00 PM (326) C MICHIGAN: 2.2
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -3.2, Edge: BALL ST - 6.3

Sat - 10/14 (323) MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
1:00 PM (324) BUFFALO: -16.4
Actual Line: +8.5 OF Line: +5.7, Edge: BUFFALO - 2.8

Sat - 10/14 (353) FLORIDA ST: 10.8
1:00 PM (354) DUKE: -7.2
Actual Line: +23 OF Line: +18, Edge: DUKE - 5

Sat - 10/14 (329) RUTGERS: 8.1
1:30 PM (330) NAVY: 12.7
Actual Line: -1 OF Line: -4.6, Edge: NAVY - 3.6

Sat - 10/14 (379) OKLAHOMA ST: 6
2:00 PM (380) KANSAS: 8.7
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -2.7, Edge: OKLAHOMA ST - 0.3

Sat - 10/14 (337) MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
2:00 PM (338) ALABAMA: 13.2
Actual Line: -16 OF Line: -16.8, Edge: ALABAMA - 0.8

Sat - 10/14 (335) N ILLINOIS: 0.2
2:00 PM (336) W MICHIGAN: 0.9
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: -0.7, Edge: W MICHIGAN - 2.7

Sat - 10/14 (399) ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
2:00 PM (400) MEMPHIS: -7.2
Actual Line: -11.5 OF Line: +3, Edge: ARKANSAS ST - 14.5

Sat - 10/14 (331) MISSOURI: 13.8
2:00 PM (332) TEXAS A&M: 13.3
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: +0.5, Edge: TEXAS A&M - 1.5

Sat - 10/14 (333) NEBRASKA: 15
2:00 PM (334) KANSAS ST: 11.7
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +3.3, Edge: KANSAS ST - 7.2

Sat - 10/14 (343) MARSHALL: -6.2
3:00 PM (344) SMU: -2.5
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: MARSHALL - 0.3

Sat - 10/14 (341) TULSA: 8
3:00 PM (342) E CAROLINA: 8.8
Actual Line: +1.5 OF Line: -0.8, Edge: E CAROLINA - 2.3

Sat - 10/14 (339) UTAH: 7.6
3:00 PM (340) WYOMING: 6.1
Actual Line: +4 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: WYOMING - 2.5

Sat - 10/14 (355) OREGON ST: 2.6
3:30 PM (356) WASHINGTON: 10.9
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -8.3, Edge: OREGON ST - 1.2

Sat - 10/14 (349) VANDERBILT: -3.2
3:30 PM (350) GEORGIA: 10.8
Actual Line: -14.5 OF Line: -14, Edge: VANDERBILT - 0.5

Sat - 10/14 (357) UCLA: 7.2
3:30 PM (358) OREGON: 17.2
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -10, Edge: None - 0

Sat - 10/14 (363) IOWA ST: 1.7
3:30 PM (364) OKLAHOMA: 23.8
Actual Line: -19.5 OF Line: -22.1, Edge: OKLAHOMA - 2.6

Sat - 10/14 (375) CINCINNATI: 1
3:30 PM (376) LOUISVILLE: 31.5
Actual Line: -27 OF Line: -30.5, Edge: LOUISVILLE - 3.5

Sat - 10/14 (351) OHIO ST: 30.2
3:30 PM (352) MICHIGAN ST: 11.9
Actual Line: +15 OF Line: +18.3, Edge: OHIO ST - 3.3

Sat - 10/14 (381) TEXAS TECH: 14.1
3:30 PM (382) COLORADO: 5.6
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +8.5, Edge: TEXAS TECH - 1.5

Sat - 10/14 (319) MARYLAND: 5
3:30 PM (320) VIRGINIA: 4.1
Actual Line: +5 OF Line: +0.9, Edge: VIRGINIA - 4.1

Sat - 10/14 (401) LA MONROE: -14.4
4:00 PM (402) TROY ST: -6.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -7.9, Edge: LA MONROE - 0.6

Sat - 10/14 (359) TOLEDO: -9.2
4:00 PM (360) KENT ST: 0.2
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -9.4, Edge: KENT ST - 2.4

Sat - 10/14 (361) E MICHIGAN: -18.2
4:00 PM (362) BOWLING GREEN: -2.2
Actual Line: -11 OF Line: -16, Edge: BOWLING GREEN - 5

Sat - 10/14 (365) HAWAII: 10.7
5:00 PM (366) FRESNO ST: 1
Actual Line: +4.5 OF Line: +9.7, Edge: HAWAII - 5.2

Sat - 10/14 (347) CALIFORNIA: 24.3
5:00 PM (348) WASHINGTON ST: 12.9
Actual Line: +8 OF Line: +11.4, Edge: CALIFORNIA - 3.4

Sat - 10/14 (367) ARIZONA: -4.3
5:00 PM (368) STANFORD: -10.3
Actual Line: +3.5 OF Line: +6, Edge: ARIZONA - 2.5

Sat - 10/14 (369) UTAH ST: -22.8
6:00 PM (370) SAN JOSE ST: -3
Actual Line: -14 OF Line: -19.8, Edge: SAN JOSE ST - 5.8

Sat - 10/14 (397) FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
7:00 PM (398) MIAMI: 9.6
Actual Line: -28 OF Line: -20.9, Edge: FLA INTERNATIONAL - 7.1

Sat - 10/14 (383) BAYLOR: 2.4
7:00 PM (384) TEXAS: 25.1
Actual Line: -28.5 OF Line: -22.7, Edge: BAYLOR - 5.8

Sat - 10/14 (387) KENTUCKY: 2.7
7:00 PM (388) LSU: 25.1
Actual Line: -26.5 OF Line: -22.4, Edge: KENTUCKY - 4.1

Sat - 10/14 (385) IDAHO: -15
7:00 PM (386) LOUISIANA TECH: -13.1
Actual Line: -2.5 OF Line: -1.9, Edge: IDAHO - 0.6

Sat - 10/14 (373) OHIO U: 1.9
7:00 PM (374) ILLINOIS: -0.6
Actual Line: -6.5 OF Line: +2.5, Edge: OHIO U - 9

Sat - 10/14 (377) HOUSTON: 6.4
7:00 PM (378) SOUTHERN MISS: 6.1
Actual Line: -2 OF Line: +0.3, Edge: HOUSTON - 2.3

Sat - 10/14 (371) UAB: -5
7:30 PM (372) RICE: -1.2
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: -3.8, Edge: RICE - 9.8

Sat - 10/14 (345) FLORIDA: 27.2
7:45 PM (346) AUBURN: 19.2
Actual Line: +0 OF Line: +8, Edge: FLORIDA - 8

Sat - 10/14 (389) ARIZONA ST: 0.2
8:00 PM (390) USC: 25.1
Actual Line: -19 OF Line: -24.9, Edge: USC - 5.9

Sat - 10/14 (391) MICHIGAN: 26.6
8:00 PM (392) PENN ST: 8.1
Actual Line: +6.5 OF Line: +18.5, Edge: MICHIGAN - 12

Sat - 10/14 (393) TULANE: -12.1
9:00 PM (394) UTEP: 3.7
Actual Line: -12.5 OF Line: -15.8, Edge: UTEP - 3.3

Sat - 10/14 (395) NEW MEXICO: 0.7
10:00 PM (396) UNLV: -5.7
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +6.4, Edge: NEW MEXICO - 3.4

Sun - 10/15 (413) NY GIANTS: 4.9
1:00 PM (414) ATLANTA: 8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -3.1, Edge: ATLANTA - 0.1

Sun - 10/15 (405) TENNESSEE: -11.5
1:00 PM (406) WASHINGTON: 2.5
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -14, Edge: WASHINGTON - 4

Sun - 10/15 (407) HOUSTON: -9.3
1:00 PM (408) DALLAS: 11.5
Actual Line: -13 OF Line: -20.8, Edge: DALLAS - 7.8

Sun - 10/15 (417) CAROLINA: -1.1
1:00 PM (418) BALTIMORE: 10.1
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -11.2, Edge: BALTIMORE - 8.2

Sun - 10/15 (409) BUFFALO: -1.8
1:00 PM (410) DETROIT: -3.3
Actual Line: +1 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: BUFFALO - 0.5

Sun - 10/15 (403) CINCINNATI: 4.3
1:00 PM (404) TAMPA BAY: -1.5
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: +5.8, Edge: TAMPA BAY - 0.2

Sun - 10/15 (415) PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
1:00 PM (416) NEW ORLEANS: 6.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.8, Edge: NEW ORLEANS - 2.2

Sun - 10/15 (411) SEATTLE: 0.9
1:00 PM (412) ST LOUIS: 0.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.6, Edge: ST LOUIS - 2.4

Sun - 10/15 (423) KANSAS CITY: 5.1
4:15 PM (424) PITTSBURGH: 5.7
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -0.6, Edge: KANSAS CITY - 6.4

Sun - 10/15 (419) MIAMI: -11.9
4:15 PM (420) NY JETS: -2.8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -9.1, Edge: NY JETS - 6.1

Sun - 10/15 (421) SAN DIEGO: 10.1
4:15 PM (422) SAN FRANCISCO: -4.5
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +14.6, Edge: SAN DIEGO - 4.6

Sun - 10/15 (427) BOISE ST: 19.1
8:00 PM (428) NEW MEXICO ST: -8
Actual Line: +26.5 OF Line: +27.1, Edge: BOISE ST - 0.6

Sun - 10/15 (425) OAKLAND: -13.6
8:15 PM (426) DENVER: 14
Actual Line: -15 OF Line: -27.6, Edge: DENVER - 12.6

Mon - 10/16 (429) CHICAGO: 18.7
8:30 PM (430) ARIZONA: -0.8
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +19.5, Edge: CHICAGO - 9

[djmauiboy]

harmon forecast

Games for Oct. 12 - Oct. 15

*Air Force 27 Colorado State 24
*Alabama 28 Mississippi 12
Arizona 22 *Stanford 21
*Arkansas 35 Southeast Missouri State 7
*Auburn 24 Florida 19
*Boise State 41 New Mexico State 19
*Bowling Green 26 Eastern Michigan 19
California 30 *Washington State 23
*Central Michigan 31 Ball State 26
*Clemson 49 Temple 3
*Connecticut 27 Army 19
*Florida Atlantic 21 Southern Utah 14
Florida State 36 *Duke 10
*Georgia 30 Vanderbilt 13
Hawaii 29 *Fresno State 27
*Illinois 23 Ohio 18
Iowa 34 *Indiana 16
*Kansas 26 Oklahoma State 25
*Kent 27 Toledo 23
*Louisiana Tech 27 Idaho 23
*Louisville 39 Cincinnati 10
*LSU 41 Kentucky 12
Maryland 21 *Virginia 19
*Memphis 27 Arkansas State 18
*Miami (Fla.) 37 Florida International 10
Miami (Ohio) 26 *Buffalo 18
Michigan 24 *Penn State 21
*Mississippi State 29 Jacksonville State 6
*Navy 26 Rutgers 24
Nebraska 27 *Kansas State 20
New Mexico 22 *UNLV 18
*North Carolina State 22 Wake Forest 21
Northern Illinois 28 *Western Michigan 22
Ohio State 33 *Michigan State 19
*Oklahoma 34 Iowa State 18
*Oregon 33 UCLA 27
Pittsburgh 30 *Central Florida 22
Purdue 31 *Northwestern 20
*San Jose State 30 Utah State 13
*SMU 27 Marshall 18
South Florida 27 *North Carolina 21
*Southern California 40 Arizona State 17
*Southern Mississippi 27 Houston 24
*Texas 41 Baylor 12
*Texas A&M 27 Missouri 26
Texas Tech 28 *Colorado 16
*Troy 22 Louisiana-Monroe 16
Tulsa 28 *East Carolina 23
UAB 26 *Rice 20
Utah 23 *Wyoming 22
*UTEP 37 Tulane 20
Virginia Tech 20 *Boston College 19
*Washington 31 Oregon State 18
*Wisconsin 31 Minnesota 19
*West Virginia 39 Syracuse 10

* - Denotes home team

[Udog]

NHL - Thur.

Pro Hockey Trend Report

PITTSBURGH (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at NY RANGERS (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/12/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 11-28 ATS (+47.6 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 26-51 ATS (-26.2 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 44-72 ATS (+44.0 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 94-109 ATS (+94.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 142-161 ATS (+142.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 167-199 ATS (+167.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 55-69 ATS (+55.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 47-65 ATS (-53.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 14-23 ATS (-16.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 5-3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.5 Units)




TORONTO (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/12/2006, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 1-11 ATS (+15.6 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-0 (+4.7 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-0-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.1 Units)




CALGARY (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) at OTTAWA (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/12/2006, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 55-49 ATS (+114.3 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
CALGARY is 35-27 ATS (+67.2 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
OTTAWA is 58-37 ATS (+4.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 58-37 ATS (-32.4 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 3-6 ATS (+3.0 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 22-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 58-37 ATS (-42.5 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 1-0-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)




BOSTON (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) at ST LOUIS (0-2-0-1, 1 pts.) - 10/12/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 30-24 ATS (+60.1 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 6-27 ATS (+65.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS (+25.7 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




WASHINGTON (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at MINNESOTA (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/12/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 72-114 ATS (-47.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 169-160 ATS (+366.2 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




NASHVILLE (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) at CHICAGO (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/12/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 10-19 ATS (-16.6 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-16 ATS (+25.6 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 134-181 ATS (+346.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CHICAGO is 67-93 ATS (-48.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 118-161 ATS (+118.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 6-3 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 6-3-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.5 Units)




SAN JOSE (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) at EDMONTON (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/12/2006, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 95-74 ATS (+95.0 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
EDMONTON is 39-27 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 15-7 ATS (+23.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 29-11 ATS (+11.6 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 7-3 (+4.9 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 7-3-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.7 Units)

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Pro Football (Sunday, Monday)

Dunkel Index - NFL

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 403-404: Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.628; Tampa Bay 123.951
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5 1/2); Under

Game 405-406: Tennessee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 117.705; Washington 127.492
Dunkel Line: Washington by 10; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 10; 39
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over

Game 407-408: Houston at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.795; Dallas 131.443
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 13; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Dallas by 13; 43
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over

Game 409-410: Buffalo at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.245; Detroit 123.217
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 40
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Under

Game 411-412: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 130.674; St. Louis 123.961
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 128.634; Atlanta 133.904
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Under

Game 415-416: Philadelphia at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.828; New Orleans 127.720
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under

Game 417-418: Carolina at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 127.299; Baltimore 132.773
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Over

Game 419-420: Miami at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.313; NY Jets 123.423
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Over

Game 421-422: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.639; San Francisco 120.103
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Over

Game 423-424: Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.957; Pittsburgh 133.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+7); Over

Game 425-426: Oakland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 116.210; Denver 134.174
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 15; 36
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-15); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 429-430: Chicago at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 139.637; Arizona 122.480
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 17; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 10; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-10); Over

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Baseball (update with write-up)

Dunkel Index - MLB

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12

St. Louis at NY Mets
St. Louis should hope that last night's rainout will dampen the Mets offense. New York unloaded on Dodger pitching for 19 runs on 30 hits in sweeping the three-game series. Tonight the Mets will go with the one legitimate ace they have left in Tom Glavine, who responded in Game 2 of the NLDS with six innings of shutout ball. Any effort close to that should give the Mets' offense plenty of cover to open with a victory according to Dunkel, which has New York favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets

Game 957-958: St. Louis at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Weaver) 16.123; NY Mets (Glavine) 17.556
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under

[Udog]

MLB - NLCS - Thur. Gm. 1

Key Performance Information
ST LOUIS
in all games
86-79 This season | 301-210 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 9 to 9.5
32-36 This season | 122-92 Last 3 seasons

as a road underdog of +150 to +175
0-3 This season | 4-7 Last 3 seasons

in road games
36-47 This season | 140-115 Last 3 seasons

on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5
14-21 This season | 50-44 Last 3 seasons

in October games
3-2 This season | 19-15 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Thursday
10-9 This season | 33-30 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
86-79 This season | 296-206 Last 3 seasons

in night games
46-59 This season | 186-139 Last 3 seasons

against left-handed starters
24-33 This season | 85-66 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
3-1 This season | 15-13 Last 3 seasons

after a win
46-39 This season | 169-131 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
33-33 This season | 124-91 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
14-9 This season | 66-45 Last 3 seasons


NY METS
in all games
100-65 This season | 254-235 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 9 to 9.5
51-26 This season | 83-64 Last 3 seasons

as a home favorite of -150 to -175
15-12 This season | 34-26 Last 3 seasons

in home games
52-31 This season | 138-107 Last 3 seasons

at home when the total is 9 to 9.5
31-19 This season | 43-26 Last 3 seasons

in October games
4-0 This season | 6-3 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Thursday
15-7 This season | 45-25 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
98-64 This season | 246-227 Last 3 seasons

in night games
62-46 This season | 162-155 Last 3 seasons

against right-handed starters
75-44 This season | 194-166 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
3-0 This season | 3-0 Last 3 seasons

after a win
59-39 This season | 134-120 Last 3 seasons

after 3 or more consecutive wins
23-13 This season | 39-34 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
44-24 This season | 128-129 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
17-5 This season | 55-64 Last 3 seasons

[Udog]

NFL - Week 6

Pro Football Trend Report

CINCINNATI (3 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 4) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




TENNESSEE (0 - 5) at WASHINGTON (2 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




HOUSTON (1 - 3) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




BUFFALO (2 - 3) at DETROIT (0 - 5) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




SEATTLE (3 - 1) at ST LOUIS (4 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) in October games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




NY GIANTS (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




PHILADELPHIA (4 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 107-74 ATS (+25.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




CAROLINA (3 - 2) at BALTIMORE (4 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




MIAMI (1 - 4) at NY JETS (2 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in October games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




OAKLAND (0 - 4) at DENVER (3 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




CHICAGO (5 - 0) at ARIZONA (1 - 4) - 10/16/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Udog]

NFL - Week 6

Sunday, October 15th

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in road games
Tampa Bay: 13-4 Under vs. NFC North opponents

Tennessee at Washington, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 8-1 Over off an Under
Washington: 11-3 ATS off a division game

Houston at Dallas, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-9 ATS off a home win
Dallas: 13-4 ATS off a division loss by 10+ points

Buffalo at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 18-7 Under as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Detroit: 9-1 ATS at home off 5+ losses

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 8-1 ATS off a road game
St. Louis: 7-2 Over off a road win by 3 points or less

NY Giants at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 24-10 Over off a win by 14+ points
Atlanta: 1-10 ATS at home off a home win by 10+ points

Philadelphia at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 16-6 Over away after scoring 30+ points
New Orleans: 15-5 ATS at home off a division win

Carolina at Baltimore, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore: 14-5 Under in home games

Miami at NY Jets, 4:15 EST
Miami: 2-12 ATS vs. division opponents
NY Jets: 7-0 Over off 5+ Overs

San Diego at San Francisco, 4:15 EST
San Diego: 10-2 ATS in October
San Francisco: 12-4 Over off an ATS win

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 4:15 EST
Kansas City: 0-7 ATS away off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Pittsburgh: 9-0 Over as a home favorite

Oakland at Denver, 8:15 EST NBC
Oakland: 0-7 ATS vs. division opponents
Denver: 5-1 Under as a favorite of 10+ points

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Monday, October 16th

Chicago at Arizona, 8:30 EST ESPN
Chicago: 1-9 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
Arizona: 21-7 ATS at home off 3+ losses

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL - Week 6

Bengals (3-1) @ Buccaneers (0-4)-Tampa averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt in Gradkowski's first NFL start, after averaging 3.1/ 5.8/5.6 in Simms' three starts, so Toledo rookie passed his first test, but Bucs have given up 24+ points in three of four games, and have been outscored 61-17 in first half this season. Bengals off bye; they already have wins at Arrowhead and Heinz, two of NFL's toughest places to win, and have picked off seven passes in four games. Red flag for Cincy is 406 rushing yards they allowed in last two games. Bucs ran ball for 187 yards in loss at Saints, after running ball for total of 130 yds in first three games.

Titans (0-5) @ Redskins (2-3)-Tennessee scoring just 12 ppg, but they've had chance to win/tie in last 2:00 in three of their five losses- they held Colts scoreless in first half last week. Portis could have big day vs Titan run defense that allowed 192.8 rushing yds per game last four weeks, but with erratic nature of Redskin offense (31,36 pts in wins; 16,10,3 in losses), hard to tell if Brunell can make plays passing if Titans stack the run. In five games, Tennessee has been outscored 27-0 on first drive of third quarter, allowing very poor 60.2 yds/drive. This will be first time this year Redskins face a mobile QB.

Texans (1-3) @ Cowboys (2-2)-Houston got first win in last game before their bye, but have allowed 13 TDs on 35 drives (37.1%, worst) and forced just three turnovers, so chance for Bledsoe to silence critics who want Romo in game despite never having seen him play. Dallas has run ball for 167 yds/game over last three games, so they have balance; Cowboys allowed 10,14 pts in their wins, 24,38 in losses. Texans averaging 16.5 ppg, and got drilled 43-24 in only road game so far (@ Indy). Houston yet to gain 300+ yards in game, while allowing 441+ total yards in three of their four games; they've been outscored 24-0, outgained 247-68 on first drive of second half.

Bills (2-3) @ Lions (0-5)-Detroit already -5 in turnovers, so small improvement in offense (nine TDs on 38 drives in last three games) tempered by lack of ball security that typifies a Martz offense (seven TO's in last two games). Buffalo allowed 6,12 points in their two wins, 19-28-40 in losses; they split their two road games. Still doubt Losman's ability to make plays (10-37 on 3rd down last three games) but backing Millen Lions is like asking Devil Rays to win AL East. Last week, Detroit had 17-3 lead at Minnesota, defense held Vikings to one TD, but offense coughed up two TDs in last quarter. Detroit has yet to have edge in average field position this season and have only one sack in last four games.

Seahawks (3-1) @ Rams (4-1)-St Louis tied for NFL lead in turnover margin (+10, +8 in two home games) but lost to 49ers only time they didn't have turnover edge, pretty big red flag. Seattle off a bye and spanking in Chicago, have seven giveaways in last three games, and are probably still without Alexander here. Hawks allowed 64 points in last three halves, still hard to gauge if they have Super Bowl hangover, or how much they miss key OL Hutchinson, who left via free agency (he visits Seattle with Vikings next week). Bad stat for Rams is that they've scored eight offensive TDs, while attempting 21 FGs; good news is that despite failing often in red zone, they're still 4-1.

Giants (2-2) @ Falcons (3-1)- Think Atlanta has advantage in non-division games, as unique style of Vick's running easier to contain when you see it twice a year- they scored 32 pts in only non-division game so far, after scoring 20-14-3 vs NFC South foes. Giant defense shored up in first game after bye (held Redskins to 164 total yards, 3-11 on third down) after allowing 58.7% of third down plays to work in first three games. Atlanta surprisingly bad 16-56 on 3rd down (28.6%), but they've run ball for 252-306-262 yards in their three wins (117 in loss at Saints) and outscored foes 46-10 in two home wins. Giants have had fairly stout run defense so far (allowing 86.5 yds/game). Sandwich game for Giants, in between Redskin/Cowboy tilts.

Eagles (4-1) @ Saints (4-1)-Philly scored 38-31-38 points last three games; they've scored 3+ offensive TDs in all five games and outscored last two foes 45-3 in second half. Gritty Saints finding ways to win; four of their five games were decided by seven or less pts, but they've allowed 354 rushing yards in last two games, a red flag. Good sign for Saints is that they've yet to have edge in average starting field position, but they're 4-1; they've scored special teams TD in each of their home games. Eagles have 23 sacks in five games. Will Eagle WR Stallworth (hamstring) return to play against team that cut him this summer? Saints 3-0 vs spread as underdog this season.

Panthers (3-2) @ Ravens (4-1)-Defensive struggle expected as offensively-challenged Panthers (0-11 on 3rd down in win last week) visit Baltimore (scored 34 points total in last three games). Carolina not making plays (11-59 on 3rd down) but still won last three games; they scored 6,13 in their two losses, 26-21-20 in wins. No one has scored more than 14 on Ravens yet this year, but Baltimore playing on short week after Monday night loss in Denver. Raven OC Fassel, Panther HC Fox worked together with Giants, so some level of familiarity there. Baltimore was +10 in turnovers in first three games, are -4 in last two, as McNair tossed four picks vs Chargers, Denver.

Dolphins (1-4) @ Jets (2-3)-Tough times on both sides; Jets allowing 164.3 rushing yards per game last four weeks; they gave up 72 points in losing last two games (-7 TO ratio in those two games), and had just 45 passing yards in 41-0 loss last week. Miami scoring 12.2 ppg in awful start, with only win 13-10 at home vs 0-5 Titans; they've converted just 34% on third down, have only five TDs on 53 drives, and actually think Harrington gives them their best chance to win at QB, so you know they're grasping at straws. Dolphins are tied for best black zone defense, allowing only one TD on 19 opponent drives that started 80+ yds from goal line, but they haven't had edge in field position since Week 1.

Chargers (3-1) @ 49ers (2-3)- Marty better turn Rivers loose in this game; 49ers allowed 34-38-41 points in their losses, 13-20 in wins. 49ers scoring 26 ppg in three home games (2-1, with only loss 38-24 to Eagles). Norv Turner has helped Smith become NFL QB; Niners are 12th in NFL in TD %age (11-56). Trap game for Bolts, off Steeler win Sunday night, with Chiefs on deck; Chargers have two INT's in each of last three games; they've been + in TO's in all four games, and are allowing just 25% conversions on third down (11-44). SF defense still struggling, ranked last in NFL in red zone defense; only Jets (16) have allowed more TDs than 15 49ers gave up.

Chiefs (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)-Pittsburgh struggling badly, losing last three games; Roethlisberger has no TD passes, seven picks this year, as effects of appendectomy linger- he isn't as big or strong as last year, and Pitt is just 13-38 on third down in his three starts. Steeler defense has already allowed four TD drives of 80+ yards, while offense already has 10 giveaways. Chiefs scored 64 points in winning two post-bye games; they rallied from 14-0 down to win at Arizona last week, but Johnson hurt neck in that game, not sure of status here. Steelers outscored
39-13 in second half of last three games; they have been -5 or worse in average starting field position every game so far. QB Green still out for Chiefs, who are quickly more of a defensive team under Edwards.

Raiders (0-4) @ Broncos (3-1)- Fifteen points in divisional rivalry game is lot to spot, but you look at Oakland offense vs Bronco defense, and, it doesn't look that big anymore. Denver defense has dominated this year, allowing one TD on 41 enemy drives, which helped them survive an offense that scored one TD in its first two home games (9-6/13-3). Broncos have won 63.3% of all third down plays this year, and have yielded only one TD in opponents' ten red zone drives. Oakland is mess, allowing 28.3 ppg, going 3/out over half (52.2%) the time, with just four TDs on those 46 drives, and a -9 TO ratio. In second half of their first four games, once-proud Raiders have been outscored 64-10, sign of a team with no hope.

Chicago (5-0) @ Arizona (1-4)-Lot of transplanted Chicagoans in desert, so should be decent amount of Bear fans at rare Monday night Cardinal home game. Leinart did well enough (22-35/222 passing) in his first start, but now gets stiff test from Bear defense that has allowed only two TDs on 54 opponent drives, while forcing 15 turnovers, 18 3/outs. Grossman has emerged as passing threat (6.5+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games) which has opened up rushing game (298 yds in last two games). Loss of WR Fitzgerald (hamstring) hurts potentially explosive Cardinal offense; their QBs have been sacked 17 times in five games, but turnovers were down (1) in Leinart's first start.