Sunday Trends and Indexes - 10/08

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 8th

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 7-20 ATS vs. conference opponents
Indianapolis: 13-3 Under off a road win by 3 points or less

Washington at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Washington: 25-9 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
NY Giants: 15-4 Under off a bye week

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Detroit: 16-5 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
Minnesota: 14-5 Under in home games

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Tampa Bay: 8-1 Under in road games
New Orleans: 17-34 ATS at home vs. division opponents

St. Louis at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
St. Louis: 22-10 Over after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Green Bay: 4-13 ATS in home games

Miami at New England, 1:00 EST
Miami: 2-11 ATS vs. division opponents
New England: 10-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

Buffalo at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 8-1 Under away first half of the season
Chicago: 8-1 Under at home off a home game

Cleveland at Carolina, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 6-17 ATS off a win by 6 points or less
Carolina: 26-11 Under off a division win

NY Jets at Jacksonville, 4:05 EST
NY Jets: 6-0 Under away off a loss by 6 points or less
Jacksonville: 8-2 ATS off BB road losses

Kansas City at Arizona, 4:05 EST
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS as a favorite
Arizona: 2-10 ATS as an underdog

Oakland at San Francisco, 4:05 EST
Oakland: 2-11 ATS as an underdog
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS off a road game

Dallas at Philadelphia, 4:15 EST
Dallas: 2-10 ATS off a win by 28+ points
Philadelphia: 7-1 Under after scoring 30+ points

Pittsburgh at San Diego, 8:15 EST NBC
Pittsburgh: 9-1 Under away off an Over
San Diego: 15-6 ATS off an Under

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Monday, October 9th

Baltimore at Denver, 8:30 EST ESPN
Baltimore: 12-2 Under away vs. conference opponents
Denver: 14-4 ATS off a bye week

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB

Pro Baseball Trend Report

SAN DIEGO (89 - 76) at ST LOUIS (85 - 79) - 8:05 PM
WOODY WILLIAMS (R) vs. CHRIS CARPENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CARPENTER is 49-19 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 67-27 (+25.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 89-76 (+5.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 9-3 (+11.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 46-36 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 18-8 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season.
SAN DIEGO is 89-76 (+5.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN DIEGO is 72-59 (+7.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN DIEGO is 26-20 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
SAN DIEGO is 35-24 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WILLIAMS is 17-7 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 10-4 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 14-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday since 1997. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 17-7 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 120-76 (+45.0 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 78-66 (+22.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 85-79 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 85-79 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 45-59 (-31.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 39-40 (-11.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 5-4 (+1.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.4 Units)



WOODY WILLIAMS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
WILLIAMS is 1-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 7.32 and a WHIP of 1.830.
His team's record is 1-3 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)



CHRIS CARPENTER vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
CARPENTER is 4-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.183.
His team's record is 4-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-2. (+3.0 units)

[Udog]

NHL

Pro Hockey Trend Report

VANCOUVER (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at COLORADO (0-0-0-2, 2 pts.) - 10/8/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 72-81 ATS (-37.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
COLORADO is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 226-197 ATS (+226.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.
COLORADO is 82-82 ATS (-94.9 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
COLORADO is 59-59 ATS (-64.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
COLORADO is 57-61 ATS (-86.2 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 4-4-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+6.1 Units)

[Udog]

MLB - ALCS Tuesday

DETROIT (98 - 68) at OAKLAND (96 - 69) - 8:05 PM
NATE ROBERTSON (L) vs. BARRY ZITO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ROBERTSON is 9-24 (-15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 96-69 (+23.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 88-60 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 52-36 (+14.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 58-39 (+17.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 17-6 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
OAKLAND is 47-34 (+18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 29-19 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ZITO is 16-7 (+9.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 99-68 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 51-33 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 91-59 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 68-38 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 62-35 (+19.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 21-28 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-4 (+0.7 Units) against OAKLAND this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.6 Units)



NATE ROBERTSON vs. OAKLAND since 1997
ROBERTSON is 2-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 5.46 and a WHIP of 1.071.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)



BARRY ZITO vs. DETROIT since 1997
ZITO is 7-5 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 2.68 and a WHIP of 1.149.
His team's record is 8-6 (-4.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-7. (-1.6 units)

[Udog]

NFL - Line Watch

Miami at New England (-10), total 36 ½

The line opened at 9 ½ but books quickly bumped the spread to 10 early in the week once public money hit the New England Patriots.

”The public has a short memory,” explains Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service in Las Vegas. “Miami’s loss last weekend coupled with New England’s impressive win over Cincinnati certainly are the main causes for this big spread.”

Like most football observers, Korner is looking through the Joey Harrington smokescreen and expects Daunte Culpepper to take the snaps for the Miami Dolphins. Korner also expects the game to see a lot of action on parlay bets.

5Dimes likes New England a little more than the rest of the books, opening them at –10 ½, bumping them to –11 by Friday.



Tennessee at Indianapolis (-18), total 48

The 18 ½-point spread is more reminiscent of a college game with a .500 mid-major team visiting a top-10 powerhouse, but Korner says that with the Indianapolis Colts’ proven ability to light up a scoreboard, the number is about right. He doesn’t expect a flood of action on the dogged Tennessee Titans at the last minute.

Korner and the other participants at the Sports Club used Indy’s 43-24 home win over Houston in Week 2 as a reference point when coming up with this spread.

“I expect this game to be around 45-10 for the Colts,” Korner said, which would follow the pattern these teams have set in recent years. Indianapolis has won and covered each of the last six head-to-head meetings and won at home by margins of 26, 27 and 32 points.



Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-6 ½), total 34 ½

The books were split as of Saturday afternoon, debating whether to offer the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a full touchdown or hold the line at 6 ½. Korner would agree with any line moves in favor of the New Orleans up to –7, but not higher.

”New Orleans may be one of those teams that is average on the road and play much better at home because of all the emotion,” he says, admitting that the Bucs starting rookie Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback is another big factor in the spread.

While the most recent meeting between the teams was decided by 14 points, the previous seven head-to-head matchups between the Saints and Bucs were decided by seven or less points.



Dallas at Philadelphia (-1 ½), total 43

The line hasn’t moved much since it originated, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t touch on the game people have been looking forward to since Terrell Owens signed with the Dallas Cowboys.

”This is an emotional game and I think Owens has more value in a game like this,” Korner says, though the books can’t seem to agree how much. Bettors can find the Philadelphia Eagles at –2, -1 ½ and –1 at various books.

Dallas squeaked out a 21-20 win as 2 ½-point dogs in its last visit to Philadelphia thanks to an interception return touchdown by Roy Williams late in the fourth quarter. It was the third straight meeting between the two that Dallas had covered, though the Eagles are 7-3 SU over the teams’ last 10.

[Udog]

MLB

Key Performance Information
SAN DIEGO
in all games
89-76 This season | 258-233 Last 3 seasons

as a road underdog of +150 to +175
2-1 This season | 13-7 Last 3 seasons

in road games
46-36 This season | 127-119 Last 3 seasons

in October games
2-2 This season | 4-8 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Sunday
18-8 This season | 39-39 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
89-76 This season | 254-231 Last 3 seasons

in night games
59-52 This season | 180-162 Last 3 seasons

against right-handed starters
72-59 This season | 192-169 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
1-2 This season | 1-5 Last 3 seasons

after a win
47-42 This season | 129-128 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
35-24 This season | 102-97 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
13-13 This season | 48-55 Last 3 seasons


ST LOUIS
in all games
85-79 This season | 300-210 Last 3 seasons

as a home favorite of -150 to -175
17-7 This season | 51-22 Last 3 seasons

as a home favorite of -175 to -200
9-2 This season | 31-9 Last 3 seasons

in home games
49-32 This season | 160-95 Last 3 seasons

in October games
2-2 This season | 18-15 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Sunday
15-10 This season | 49-32 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
85-79 This season | 295-206 Last 3 seasons

in night games
45-59 This season | 185-139 Last 3 seasons

against right-handed starters
61-46 This season | 215-144 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
2-1 This season | 14-13 Last 3 seasons

after a loss
39-40 This season | 131-79 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
32-33 This season | 123-91 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
13-9 This season | 65-45 Last 3 seasons

[Udog]

MLB - ALCS Tuesday

Key Performance Information
DETROIT
in all games
99-68 This season | 242-249 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 8 to 8.5
23-19 This season | 54-58 Last 3 seasons

as a road underdog of +125 to +150
9-6 This season | 30-33 Last 3 seasons

in road games
51-33 This season | 117-129 Last 3 seasons

on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
13-10 This season | 26-26 Last 3 seasons

in October games
3-2 This season | 4-6 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Tuesday
12-11 This season | 29-42 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
91-59 This season | 218-223 Last 3 seasons

in night games
68-38 This season | 161-154 Last 3 seasons

against left-handed starters
34-20 This season | 79-78 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
3-1 This season | 3-1 Last 3 seasons

after a win
62-35 This season | 128-112 Last 3 seasons

after 3 or more consecutive wins
26-14 This season | 38-32 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
36-41 This season | 117-151 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
23-28 This season | 61-91 Last 3 seasons


OAKLAND
in all games
96-69 This season | 275-216 Last 3 seasons

when the total is 8 to 8.5
25-22 This season | 99-85 Last 3 seasons

as a home favorite of -125 to -150
13-13 This season | 29-34 Last 3 seasons

in home games
50-32 This season | 147-97 Last 3 seasons

at home when the total is 8 to 8.5
16-13 This season | 61-50 Last 3 seasons

in October games
4-0 This season | 7-2 Last 3 seasons

when playing on Tuesday
15-11 This season | 38-37 Last 3 seasons

in games played on a grass field
88-60 This season | 253-195 Last 3 seasons

in night games
53-48 This season | 159-149 Last 3 seasons

against left-handed starters
24-18 This season | 79-53 Last 3 seasons

in playoff games
3-0 This season | 3-0 Last 3 seasons

after a win
58-39 This season | 165-111 Last 3 seasons

after 3 or more consecutive wins
21-14 This season | 59-39 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record
47-34 This season | 133-113 Last 3 seasons

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
29-19 This season | 73-62 Last 3 seasons

[Udog]

Six-Pack for Sunday

-- Someone explain to me how Frank Thomas doesn't win the AL Comeback Player of Year award. How ridiculous.

-- Chris Young hasn't been losing pitcher in any of his last 25 road starts, tying a major league record.

-- Kenny Lofton has now played in playoffs with 6 teams.

-- Three years ago, the Tigers were 43-119; 43 and freaking 119. Jim Leyland is underpaid, no matter what he makes.

-- Do you think Carl Pavano even watched the playoffs? Especially the part where Brad Radke pitched with a torn labrum and stress fracture in his shoulder?

-- I'm seriously concerned with our nation's economy; lets face it, $200 million just doesn't buy so much these days.

[Udog]

Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up college football Saturday

13) Mack Brown deserves more credit as a coach; pundits are picking against Texas, because Bob Stoops is perceived as a better coach then Brown, but Texas has widened a recruiting gap between themselves, Oklahoma. Brown is a good coach.

12) Wake Forest had 17-3 lead over Clemson, was trying field goal on first play of fourth quarter; holder fouled up timing, tried to run, fumbled when hit, Clemson scored TD, turning that game to the Tigers, who scored 24 points in 4th quarter.

11) That said, Wake's Grobe is such a good coach, how will Deacons be able to keep him? Some big money school will come calling for this man, who gets the most out of the least.

10) Arkansas ran ball for 279 yards at Auburn, surprisng, as Houston Nutt pretty much saved his job with a huge win, in a totally shocking result. Hogs won easily, 27-10.

9) Tennessee 51, Georgia 33. No explanation for it, other than the fine folks at Ole Miss screwed up when they let David Cutcliffe take a walk. He has done wonders with Ainge. Vols won despite allowing kick return and punt return for TDs.

8) East Carolina is now 13-3 vs spread since they hired Skip Holtz; they covered as home favorite vs Virginia as Cavs are having an awful season after losing several ass't coaches.

7) Missouri jumped out to 24-0 lead at Texas Tech, running in two INTs for TDs, then withstood furious Tech rally (Raiders got within 24-21). Mizzou has turned the corner, have to be taken very seriously after the 38-21 win in Lubbock.

6) Must have been some happy folks in Tuscaloosa when the Crimson Tide was trailing Duke at halftime. Game was 16-14 in final 5:00, before Bama scored two TDs to prevent a disaster.

5) Speaking of disasters, Houston led UL-Lafayette 21-0, and lost at home, 31-28. Not good way to bounce back from their near-miss at Miami.

4) In their last three games, Arizona has run ball a total of 68 times, for -18 yards; yes, I know sacks count as rushes in the college stats, but still, those are pathetic numbers.

3) Kansas State scored two TDs in final 3:07 to erase a 27-17 deficit and beat Oklahoma State, 31-27. Up until last 3:07, only two K-State TDs had scored on blocked punt and kick return.

2) Florida International's season from hell continued, as they lost 7-OT game at North Texas, dropping them to 0-6, with only one loss by more than five points.

1) In game that ended around 3:40am in the east, Hawai'i lost fumble inside their own 5-yard line in last 2:00, nursing 41-34 lead, but stopped Nevada on downs and beat Wolf Pack, as Nevada's win streak came to an end.

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Hockey

Dunkel Index - NHL

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 1-2: Vancouver at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.539; Colorado 11.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+1 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NHL
Sunday, October 8th

Vancouver at Colorado, 8:05 EST
Vancouver: 7-17 SU at Colorado
Colorado: 15-1 TSR playing with two days rest

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Dennis14072]

thanks guys!

[Udog]

No probs, Dennis! Good luck today!

[Udog]

MLB
Sunday, October 8th


National League Divisional Series
Game Four
TV: FOX
St. Louis leads, 2-1
San Diego at St. Louis, 8:05 EST
Woody Williams (R) vs. Chris Carpenter (R)


Williams:
San Diego 18-8 SU on Sundays
11-4 TSR as an underdog

Carpenter:
St. Louis 4-14 off BB games stranding 5 or less runners on base
St. Louis 19-6 Over on Sundays

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB - ALCS Tuesday, October 10th


American League Championship Series
Game One
TV: FOX
Series Tied, 0-0
Detroit at Oakland, 8:05 EST
Nate Robertson (L) vs. Barry Zito (L)


Robertson:
5-12 TSR in the second half of the season
Detroit 26-12 Under as a road underdog

Zito:
16-7 TSR pitching off a team win
Oakland 17-6 SU at home off 3+ wins

[Udog]

There'll be one more post each for NHL and MLB, if they ever come up!

Other than those, that should be it, guys! Everybody have a great day and good luck!!!