Tweet
HEY GUYS THIS IS ONE OF MY STRONGEST PLAYS FOR TOMORROW...FIGURED I WOULD SHARE WITH YOU. GL IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY!
-----------------------------------------------
AKRON (2 - 3) at CINCINNATI (2 - 3)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2006 6:30 PM
vs. 
Analysis
The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-3 SU & 2-2 ATS) aren't as bad as that record. They played Ohio State tough in the first half before losing 37-7, then got the cover in a 29-13 loss at Virginia Tech. The bearcats actually led Virginia Tech 13-12 going into the 4th quarter! Cincy is off a 24-10 over Miami, allowing just 221 total yards. QB sophomore Dustin Grutza (3 touchdowns, 6 picks) is young and threw just 11 passes last week. Akron (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS), meanwhile is off a 7-6 season under strong Head Coach J.D. Brookhart and welcomes back senior QB Luke Getsy, a former transfer from Pittsburgh. Getsy had a monster season with 3,455 pass yards, 23 touchdowns, 12 picks last fall, but this season has been a struggle. Akron is averaging 251 pass yards but the defense has been weak, allowing 25 points per game. They are off a 37-15 loss at Kent as a favorite! The pass defense allowed 305 yards. The Zips lead the MAC in passing offense (251 yards) and rank 23rd in the nation.
From a situational viewpoint this is a rather difficult game to handicap. Both teams are coming off their biggest rivalry games of the season, so we can't judge who has what left in their emotional tanks. Both have played tough schedules and both can hold their heads high for their efforts. Akron is 4-15 SU on the non-conference road in lined games but the Zips have covered six of the last nine and certainly own the edge at quarterback. Cincinnati, however has the Ohio River battle with Louisville is next, so there is the possibility of a look-ahead for them in this contest. Fundamentally, it appears that Akron hold several edges in this game. First is a distinct QB advantage, as senior Zip leader Luke Getsy (4,667 career passing yards, 32 touchdowns) is having a solid season and has eliminated mistakes in recent games (0 interceptions., 5 touchdown throws last 2). Conversely, Bearcat quarterback Dustin Grutza has 7 interceptions and just 3 scores in his last 4 games and is coming off the least productive game of his career (5 completions, 43 yards) against Miami-Ohio. Akron also the more balanced offense, as Cincinnati is ranked 85th in the nation in rushing and is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. Akron, which boasts 5 returning starters in its offensive line, welcomed back running back Dennis Kennedy from a shoulder injury last week, and he carried 16 times for 91 yards. Zips 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.
The disparate results from last weekend also gives us some line value here. Cincinnati is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games as home chalk with no revenge, while Akron is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games off a loss. This game will also be Akron’s fifth road game this season. Teams in Game 6 of the season, playing on the road for the 5th time are 12-4 ATS, including 11-1 ATS as an underdog. In fact, playing in Cincinnati this weekend is where Akron would prefer being as evidenced by their 5-0 SU & ATS mark as road dogs of less than 10 points under Brookhart. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s two victories this season have come against the likes of Division 1-AA Eastern Kentucky (who lost 27-0 at home last week to Jacksonville St) and the aforementioned RedHawks of Miami (0-5). It’s been two years since the Bearcats have won back-to-back contests (0-5) as they have struggled developing any sort of consistency under head coach Mark Dantonio. Although Cincinnati has home field and the better defense, Akron has the veteran QB and a good passing offense to keep this close. Take those points!
Verdict: Cincinnati 21, Akron 27
PLAY 1* UNIT ON AKRON +6
-----------------------------------------------
AKRON (2 - 3) at CINCINNATI (2 - 3)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2006 6:30 PM
vs. Analysis
The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-3 SU & 2-2 ATS) aren't as bad as that record. They played Ohio State tough in the first half before losing 37-7, then got the cover in a 29-13 loss at Virginia Tech. The bearcats actually led Virginia Tech 13-12 going into the 4th quarter! Cincy is off a 24-10 over Miami, allowing just 221 total yards. QB sophomore Dustin Grutza (3 touchdowns, 6 picks) is young and threw just 11 passes last week. Akron (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS), meanwhile is off a 7-6 season under strong Head Coach J.D. Brookhart and welcomes back senior QB Luke Getsy, a former transfer from Pittsburgh. Getsy had a monster season with 3,455 pass yards, 23 touchdowns, 12 picks last fall, but this season has been a struggle. Akron is averaging 251 pass yards but the defense has been weak, allowing 25 points per game. They are off a 37-15 loss at Kent as a favorite! The pass defense allowed 305 yards. The Zips lead the MAC in passing offense (251 yards) and rank 23rd in the nation.
From a situational viewpoint this is a rather difficult game to handicap. Both teams are coming off their biggest rivalry games of the season, so we can't judge who has what left in their emotional tanks. Both have played tough schedules and both can hold their heads high for their efforts. Akron is 4-15 SU on the non-conference road in lined games but the Zips have covered six of the last nine and certainly own the edge at quarterback. Cincinnati, however has the Ohio River battle with Louisville is next, so there is the possibility of a look-ahead for them in this contest. Fundamentally, it appears that Akron hold several edges in this game. First is a distinct QB advantage, as senior Zip leader Luke Getsy (4,667 career passing yards, 32 touchdowns) is having a solid season and has eliminated mistakes in recent games (0 interceptions., 5 touchdown throws last 2). Conversely, Bearcat quarterback Dustin Grutza has 7 interceptions and just 3 scores in his last 4 games and is coming off the least productive game of his career (5 completions, 43 yards) against Miami-Ohio. Akron also the more balanced offense, as Cincinnati is ranked 85th in the nation in rushing and is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. Akron, which boasts 5 returning starters in its offensive line, welcomed back running back Dennis Kennedy from a shoulder injury last week, and he carried 16 times for 91 yards. Zips 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.
The disparate results from last weekend also gives us some line value here. Cincinnati is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games as home chalk with no revenge, while Akron is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games off a loss. This game will also be Akron’s fifth road game this season. Teams in Game 6 of the season, playing on the road for the 5th time are 12-4 ATS, including 11-1 ATS as an underdog. In fact, playing in Cincinnati this weekend is where Akron would prefer being as evidenced by their 5-0 SU & ATS mark as road dogs of less than 10 points under Brookhart. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s two victories this season have come against the likes of Division 1-AA Eastern Kentucky (who lost 27-0 at home last week to Jacksonville St) and the aforementioned RedHawks of Miami (0-5). It’s been two years since the Bearcats have won back-to-back contests (0-5) as they have struggled developing any sort of consistency under head coach Mark Dantonio. Although Cincinnati has home field and the better defense, Akron has the veteran QB and a good passing offense to keep this close. Take those points!
Verdict: Cincinnati 21, Akron 27
PLAY 1* UNIT ON AKRON +6
Comment