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1-1 ON YESTERDAYS PLAYS BUT I HAD A PRETTY BAD DAY OVERALL. HERE ARE TWO PRETTY GOOD ONES FOR TOMORROW. GL IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY!
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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at CINCINNATI (3 - 0)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/1/2006 4:15 PM
vs. 
Analysis
One team is riding high, the other one is low. The Patriots (2-1SU & 1-2 ATS) have a deep offensive line and a new-look power running game behind running backs Corey Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney. The Pats are averaging 126 yards on the ground, but they got smacked badly at home by Denver, 17-7. Ignore the 320 passing yards Tom Brady put up as the Pats offense was out of synch all night, getting stuffed on a key fourth-and-one early in the game. QB Tom Brady is trying to get used to some new receivers, though rookie speedster Chad Jackson didn't play last week and newcomer Doug Gabriel is still learning the playbook. They were not as bad as they looked that game, and Brady/Belichick have a history of bouncing back. The Bengal’s (3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS), meanwhile looked armed to the teeth after beating the Chiefs 23-10, the Browns 34-17 and Sunday's 28-20 win at rival Pittsburgh. They beefed up the defense this off-season, grabbing South Carolina CB Jonathon Joseph and DE Frostee Rucker (USC) and added free-agent defensive tackle Sam Adams. QB Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson provide the punch on offense, and they have excellent wide receivers in Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry and Kelley Washington. Still, Pittsburgh out gained them 365-246, and Cincinnati went through another offensive drought in the second half. The Bengal’s managed just 13 yards on their first five possessions of the second half, while the Steelers scored 10 points to take a 17-14 lead.
Now few things are a certain in the NFL but this one could be pretty close to a sure thing. It’s been 52 games since the Patriots lost back to back contests! Helping New England improve on that unbelievable stat is the fact the Cincinnati’s starting middle line backer and 2005 top tackler Odell Thurman has been suspended for the rest of the season following a DUI arrest. The Bengals also lost starting OLB David Pollack with a neck fracture after the second game and will now have to finish the season without two of their starting linebackers. Cincinnati (20th in rush defense) is currently going with veteran OLB starter Brian Simmons taking over the middle, smallish 227-pound third-year man Landon Johnson at OLB, and former CFL star Rashad Jeanty (Central Florida) at the other OLB spot. The key to this game is the line of scrimmage, which I know fully expect the Patriots to control. New England has one of the best offensive lines in the league with Pro-Bowl potential players abound. In their first two wins to start the season, they accumulated 330 yards on the ground. So look for the running tandem of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney to be very effective against this now below average run defenses. People often forget that this is a Cincinnati team that finished 28th in the NFL in total defense last year, and those problems resurfaced last week as the Steelers pounded them on the ground for 170 yards. Meanwhile, the Steelers and their zone blitz schemes really pressured Carson Palmer last week and I expect the Patriots and their solid defensive line to cause problems for the Bengals. Aside from the defensive injuries, the Bengals will also be without veteran C Rich Braham (knee) out for several weeks, backup WR and special teamer Tab Perry (hip) out, backup DE Frostee Rucker (shoulder) through for the season, backup LB A. J. Nicholson (hamstring) not expected to play, and backup S Dexter Jackson (ankle) not expected to play. From a technical standpoint the Patriots are dominant. Over the past five seasons, the Patriots are one of the best road teams in the NFL vs. the spread, going 21-12-1, while also posting an impressive 19-10-1 ATS mark in their last 31 as a dog. In the games following its last eleven losses, New England is a perfect 11-0 SU with ten covers in the batch. The Pats are also pretty good at following non-division games, win, lose or draw notching an impressive 32-6 SU mark on those occasions. Counter that with Cincinnati’s 5-13 ATS record in their last 18 home games and we have a technical knockout if you will. ! Cincy will score with their strong receivers against a suspect New England secondary, but the Pats and Brady are not the train wreck team you saw Sunday night, but that lose did create some of this line value. Pats not only cover this spread but they win outright!
Verdict: CIN Bengals 17, NE Patriots 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NEW ENGLAND +5.5
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 0) at NY JETS (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/1/2006 1:00 PM
vs. 
Analysis
This is a classic case of taking the home underdog against a team that isn’t as good as its 3-0 record indicates. Indy (3-0 SU & ATS) is a team retooling, with a smaller, faster defense and the loss of their star running back Edgerrin James. Despite the loss of James, Indy still has a potent offense with quarterback Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison. One weakness they have is defense up the middle. The Colts got a 26-21 win over the Giants, as the defense allowed 433 yards, including 186 rushing and a 6.6-yard per-carry average! Indy showcased its quick-strike ability with a 21-14 win over the Jaguars Sunday. Even so, their weakness was again exposed as Jacksonville ran for 191 yards, 4.8 yards per carry. After being gored for 154 first-half yards by Jacksonville's one-two punch of running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, the Colts tightened the screws considerably. They were more disciplined with their assignments, better at swarming and tackling. Their fundamental weakness should not be a big concern here as the Jets are not a rushing threat and have a very young offensive line. Meanwhile, the New York Jets (2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS) started off their season better then anyone projected. Although the Jets lack talent in several areas, this is a team that is playing hard for new coach Eric Mangini. They began the season with a road win at Tennessee, then fell behind the Patriots 24-0 before the coach tried something new. They went to a hurry-up offense and nearly won, in a 24-17 defeat. Quarterback Chad Pennington had his second straight 300-yard passing, and again did it without the benefit of their aforementioned running game (51 yards on 24 carries). Pennington, employing the no-huddle, completed 22 of 37 passes for 306 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He was sacked four times but showed tremendous poise in the pocket. The Jets, who were winless on the road last season, won their second straight road game this year, a 28-20 victory yesterday over the Bills. The Jets won despite allowing Bills running back Willis McGahee a career-high 150 yards on 26 carries (5.8-yard average), including 114 in the first half, and yielding 475 yards total offense, so they still have a long ways to go.
When analyzing this selection I got a bit scared when I looked at the technical numbers, especially when I discovered that the Colts are 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games as well as posting an impressive 11-1 ATS mark as non-divisional road favorite! In spite of the technical dominance, I am going to recommend a play on the Jets. Well actually, it’s more of a play against the Colts. First off, the Colts are a team with a tremendous amount of injuries. They had 21 players on the injury list last week. Among those who didn’t play were kicker Adam Vinatieri, run-stuffing tackle Corey Simon and Brandon Stokley, their No. 3 wideout. With this game being a bit of a sandwich spot (off two divisional games and one coming up next week) the Colts will rest their injured playmakers. Fundamentally, the Colts a not strong running team, which makes them very vulnerable to a 3-4 defense. The Jets switched to that style under new coach Eric Mangini, who served under defensive genius Bill Belichick. Belichick’s defenses have been a thorn in the side for Peyton Manning and the Colts for years. Against this defense, the Colt’s should really feel the negative effect of missing E. James a bit more than they thought they would. To date, the Jets defense has allowed only 2 passing touchdowns on the season. When the rolls are reversed and the Jets are on offense, I expect them to move the ball effectively through the air against a soft Indy secondary. With the Colt’s Dwight Freeney at less than 100 percent, their passing rush will be significantly diminished. Pennington is enjoying a comeback season with a 5-1 TD to interception ratio and two 300-yard passing games so he’s more then capable of engineering an upset. One final though on this contest. The venue of this game, being played at New York’s Giant’s stadium also adds a favorable element to this selection. Peyton Manning enjoys playing in a dome and the elements are quite different at Giants Stadium where swirling winds are a possibility. Got to tell you though, I’m still concerned about those trends so play with caution.
Verdict: IND Colts 24, NYJ Jets 21
OPINION SELECTION ON NEW YORK JETS +8.5
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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at CINCINNATI (3 - 0)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/1/2006 4:15 PM
vs. Analysis
One team is riding high, the other one is low. The Patriots (2-1SU & 1-2 ATS) have a deep offensive line and a new-look power running game behind running backs Corey Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney. The Pats are averaging 126 yards on the ground, but they got smacked badly at home by Denver, 17-7. Ignore the 320 passing yards Tom Brady put up as the Pats offense was out of synch all night, getting stuffed on a key fourth-and-one early in the game. QB Tom Brady is trying to get used to some new receivers, though rookie speedster Chad Jackson didn't play last week and newcomer Doug Gabriel is still learning the playbook. They were not as bad as they looked that game, and Brady/Belichick have a history of bouncing back. The Bengal’s (3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS), meanwhile looked armed to the teeth after beating the Chiefs 23-10, the Browns 34-17 and Sunday's 28-20 win at rival Pittsburgh. They beefed up the defense this off-season, grabbing South Carolina CB Jonathon Joseph and DE Frostee Rucker (USC) and added free-agent defensive tackle Sam Adams. QB Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson provide the punch on offense, and they have excellent wide receivers in Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry and Kelley Washington. Still, Pittsburgh out gained them 365-246, and Cincinnati went through another offensive drought in the second half. The Bengal’s managed just 13 yards on their first five possessions of the second half, while the Steelers scored 10 points to take a 17-14 lead.
Now few things are a certain in the NFL but this one could be pretty close to a sure thing. It’s been 52 games since the Patriots lost back to back contests! Helping New England improve on that unbelievable stat is the fact the Cincinnati’s starting middle line backer and 2005 top tackler Odell Thurman has been suspended for the rest of the season following a DUI arrest. The Bengals also lost starting OLB David Pollack with a neck fracture after the second game and will now have to finish the season without two of their starting linebackers. Cincinnati (20th in rush defense) is currently going with veteran OLB starter Brian Simmons taking over the middle, smallish 227-pound third-year man Landon Johnson at OLB, and former CFL star Rashad Jeanty (Central Florida) at the other OLB spot. The key to this game is the line of scrimmage, which I know fully expect the Patriots to control. New England has one of the best offensive lines in the league with Pro-Bowl potential players abound. In their first two wins to start the season, they accumulated 330 yards on the ground. So look for the running tandem of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney to be very effective against this now below average run defenses. People often forget that this is a Cincinnati team that finished 28th in the NFL in total defense last year, and those problems resurfaced last week as the Steelers pounded them on the ground for 170 yards. Meanwhile, the Steelers and their zone blitz schemes really pressured Carson Palmer last week and I expect the Patriots and their solid defensive line to cause problems for the Bengals. Aside from the defensive injuries, the Bengals will also be without veteran C Rich Braham (knee) out for several weeks, backup WR and special teamer Tab Perry (hip) out, backup DE Frostee Rucker (shoulder) through for the season, backup LB A. J. Nicholson (hamstring) not expected to play, and backup S Dexter Jackson (ankle) not expected to play. From a technical standpoint the Patriots are dominant. Over the past five seasons, the Patriots are one of the best road teams in the NFL vs. the spread, going 21-12-1, while also posting an impressive 19-10-1 ATS mark in their last 31 as a dog. In the games following its last eleven losses, New England is a perfect 11-0 SU with ten covers in the batch. The Pats are also pretty good at following non-division games, win, lose or draw notching an impressive 32-6 SU mark on those occasions. Counter that with Cincinnati’s 5-13 ATS record in their last 18 home games and we have a technical knockout if you will. ! Cincy will score with their strong receivers against a suspect New England secondary, but the Pats and Brady are not the train wreck team you saw Sunday night, but that lose did create some of this line value. Pats not only cover this spread but they win outright!
Verdict: CIN Bengals 17, NE Patriots 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NEW ENGLAND +5.5
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 0) at NY JETS (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/1/2006 1:00 PM
vs. Analysis
This is a classic case of taking the home underdog against a team that isn’t as good as its 3-0 record indicates. Indy (3-0 SU & ATS) is a team retooling, with a smaller, faster defense and the loss of their star running back Edgerrin James. Despite the loss of James, Indy still has a potent offense with quarterback Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison. One weakness they have is defense up the middle. The Colts got a 26-21 win over the Giants, as the defense allowed 433 yards, including 186 rushing and a 6.6-yard per-carry average! Indy showcased its quick-strike ability with a 21-14 win over the Jaguars Sunday. Even so, their weakness was again exposed as Jacksonville ran for 191 yards, 4.8 yards per carry. After being gored for 154 first-half yards by Jacksonville's one-two punch of running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, the Colts tightened the screws considerably. They were more disciplined with their assignments, better at swarming and tackling. Their fundamental weakness should not be a big concern here as the Jets are not a rushing threat and have a very young offensive line. Meanwhile, the New York Jets (2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS) started off their season better then anyone projected. Although the Jets lack talent in several areas, this is a team that is playing hard for new coach Eric Mangini. They began the season with a road win at Tennessee, then fell behind the Patriots 24-0 before the coach tried something new. They went to a hurry-up offense and nearly won, in a 24-17 defeat. Quarterback Chad Pennington had his second straight 300-yard passing, and again did it without the benefit of their aforementioned running game (51 yards on 24 carries). Pennington, employing the no-huddle, completed 22 of 37 passes for 306 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He was sacked four times but showed tremendous poise in the pocket. The Jets, who were winless on the road last season, won their second straight road game this year, a 28-20 victory yesterday over the Bills. The Jets won despite allowing Bills running back Willis McGahee a career-high 150 yards on 26 carries (5.8-yard average), including 114 in the first half, and yielding 475 yards total offense, so they still have a long ways to go.
When analyzing this selection I got a bit scared when I looked at the technical numbers, especially when I discovered that the Colts are 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games as well as posting an impressive 11-1 ATS mark as non-divisional road favorite! In spite of the technical dominance, I am going to recommend a play on the Jets. Well actually, it’s more of a play against the Colts. First off, the Colts are a team with a tremendous amount of injuries. They had 21 players on the injury list last week. Among those who didn’t play were kicker Adam Vinatieri, run-stuffing tackle Corey Simon and Brandon Stokley, their No. 3 wideout. With this game being a bit of a sandwich spot (off two divisional games and one coming up next week) the Colts will rest their injured playmakers. Fundamentally, the Colts a not strong running team, which makes them very vulnerable to a 3-4 defense. The Jets switched to that style under new coach Eric Mangini, who served under defensive genius Bill Belichick. Belichick’s defenses have been a thorn in the side for Peyton Manning and the Colts for years. Against this defense, the Colt’s should really feel the negative effect of missing E. James a bit more than they thought they would. To date, the Jets defense has allowed only 2 passing touchdowns on the season. When the rolls are reversed and the Jets are on offense, I expect them to move the ball effectively through the air against a soft Indy secondary. With the Colt’s Dwight Freeney at less than 100 percent, their passing rush will be significantly diminished. Pennington is enjoying a comeback season with a 5-1 TD to interception ratio and two 300-yard passing games so he’s more then capable of engineering an upset. One final though on this contest. The venue of this game, being played at New York’s Giant’s stadium also adds a favorable element to this selection. Peyton Manning enjoys playing in a dome and the elements are quite different at Giants Stadium where swirling winds are a possibility. Got to tell you though, I’m still concerned about those trends so play with caution.
Verdict: IND Colts 24, NYJ Jets 21
OPINION SELECTION ON NEW YORK JETS +8.5
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