Saturday Trends And Indexes

[Udog]

"GOOD TO SEE YA UDOG. U WANNA TAKE OVER? I'M GONNA BREAK AWAY AND GET MY WORK DONE WITH MY OTHER FAMILY."

I've got it, dj! Go! And, thanks, buddy!

[Udog]

STREAKING PITCHERS

Hot streaks

Ben Sheets (Milwaukee Brewers) - The Milwaukee Brewers are trying to play the spoiler role against their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. Sheets is 2-1 in his last three with a 2.86 ERA. He`s also 4-1 in afternoon games this season and oddsmakers have made him a +105 underdog today against Jeff Suppan.

Kevin Millwood (Texas Rangers) - The Rangers postseason hopes have been over for quite some time, however, Millwood has been pitching as if they were contenders. He`s 9-4 when pitching away from Texas with a 3.70 ERA and has put together back to back wins coming off a loss on three consecutive occasions. He lost to the Indians in his last trip to the mound and he looks to continue the trend as a +107 underdog against Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners.

Greg Maddux (Los Angeles Dodgers) - The Dodgers are in the midst of a dog fight for the NL West title with the San Diego Padres. They`ll need Maddux to deliever a Cy Young-like preformance in his final regular season start today. He`s been on a roll lately, going 2-1 in his last three starts with a 3.00 ERA, averaging three strikeouts per game. He`s won both starts against the Giants this season and will look for number three this afternoon against Matt Cain as a +106 underdog.

Cold streaks

Jon Garland (Chicago White Sox) - Ozzie Guillen made it clear to his club that they would not be letting up on teams down the stretch. Garland must have been in the shower when he made that claim because his play over his last three starts has been awful. He`s 0-3 over that span with an 8.00 ERA, and two of those losses were on the road. If that trend continues he could be in trouble today against Matt Garza and the Minnesota Twins as a +115 underdog.

Tim Wakefield (Boston Red Sox) - The only goal left for the Red Sox this season is to finish ahead of the Blue Jays in the AL East, but Wakefield hasn`t been making it easy for them. He hasn`t posted a win since July 17 against the lowly Royals, and has a staggering 8.79 ERA over his last three games while going 0-3. Tonight he`ll face Adam Loewen and the Baltimore Orioles as a -127 favorite.

Notables

Jeff Suppan (St. Louis Cardinals) - 5-1 in afternoon games this season with a 3.44 ERA.

Bronson Arroyo (Cincinnati Reds) - 9-4 in night games this season with a 2.45 ERA.

Jake Westbrook (Cleveland Indians) - 6-4 at home this season, 2-1 in his last three.

Tom Glavine (New York Mets) - 10-5 in night games this season, 6-4 on the road.

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Baseball

Dunkel Index - MLB

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

NY Mets at Washington
The Mets have a knack for playing close games as last night's 4-3 win over the Nationals was their 47th decided by one run this season. Today looks like it could be another close call as NY faces Washington rookie Beltran Perez, who has allowed just two earned runs in his 12 1/3 innings as a big league starter. One of those starts came against the Mets in New York. At home today, Perez and the Nats look like a good underdog play getting the run line according to Dunkel, which has Washington favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.


Game 901-902: Colorado at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.812; Chicago Cubs 16.183
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+1 1/2); Under

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Maddux) 18.224; San Francisco (Cain) 15.599
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+1 1/2); Over

Game 905-906: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Wells) 17.536; Arizona (Cruz) 15.824
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Neutral

Game 907-908: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Sheets) 15.409; St. Louis (Suppan) 16.474
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+1 1/2); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Wolf) 17.727; Florida (Olsen) 16.075
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over

Game 911-912: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Glavine) 15.766; Washington (Perez) 16.668
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Neutral

Game 913-914: Houston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Sampson) 17.588; Atlanta (Cormier) 16.874
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2); Neutral

Game 915-916: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.174; Pittsburgh (Mcleary) 15.631
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1 1/2); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago White Sox (Garland) 16.764; Minnesota (Garza) 17.768
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+1 1/2); Over

Game 919-920: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Burgos) 16.020; Detroit (Miner) 17.268
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Neutral

Game 921-922: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 18.035; NY Yankees (Karstens) 17.841
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1 1/2); Under

Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Seo) 15.598; Cleveland (Westbrook) 17.678
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1 1/2); Under

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Loewen) 16.324; Boston (Wakefield) 16.346
Dunkel Line: Even; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1 1/2); Over

Game 927-928: Texas at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 19.150; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.773
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+1 1/2); Under

Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Haren) 17.160; LA Angels (Saunders) 18.449
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+1 1/2); Over

[Udog]

MLB LINE WATCH 9/30

Colorado at Chicago – Colorado –112

What a difference a month makes for the Colorado Rockies and starting pitcher Jeff Francis.

Francis (13-11, 4.02 ERA), who watched too many quality starts wasted by lack of run support this season, is now the one to blame for the Rockies up and down play in September. The left-hander has posted a 7.09 ERA in his last six starts, going 4-1 thanks to Colorado’s bats that have produced 11.73 runs in those starts.

"It`s nice having run support like that," Francis told reporters. "Having a five-, six-run lead most of the way, I was able to just go out there and try to throw strikes."

Francis has been better away from Coors Field, going 3-2 with a 2.63 ERA in his last six road starts.

Houston at Atlanta – Atlanta

You would hope that the Houston Astros would have a plan for today’s game being just 1 ½ games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. But according to manager Phil Garner the Astros are winging it, giving the start to untested righty Chris Sampson.

Garner told reporters before last night’s loss to the Braves that he was not too concerned about who he would start in today’s crucial game. Houston’s manager is taking it one game at a time.

"It doesn`t matter all the scheming, planning or everything else you want to do for the next weekend or whatever else, it may not matter,” Garner told the Houston Chronicle. “So you better make tonight count. Don`t count the days. Let the days count.”

A lot is riding on Sampson today, who has only made two starts in his 11 appearances this season. Houston could be eliminated from playoff contention is Sampson blows today’s game and the Cardinals win against the Brewers.

Oakland at Los Angeles – Los Angeles +101

The Oakland Athletics’ final series of the regular season is more of an inconvenience than a chance to prepare for the postseason.

The A’s have been shut out in back-to-back games against the Angels this week, resting key starters before the AL playoffs begin next week. Manager Ken Macha sat catcher Jason Kendall, slugger Frank Thomas and third baseman Eric Chavez this week and intends on saving more stars for the AL postseason.

"Generally, once a team clinches, you have a letdown," Macha told MLB.com. "It`s not like I haven`t been through this, as far as getting guys ready before.”

[Udog]

Hot Pitchers
-- Arroyo is 4-1, 3.05 in his last six starts. McLeary allowed one run in five IP in his first start, a 2-1 loss at San Diego.
-- Maddux is 2-1, 3.00 in last three starts, but is going on 3 days' rest in this start.
-- Phillies are 8-3 in Wolf's starts this season.
-- Sampson hasn't allowed a run in 10.2 IP in his two starts.
-- Mets won four of Glavine's last five starts. BPerez is 2-0, 1.46 in his two starts this season.
-- Sheets is 2-1, 2.83 in his last four starts. Suppan is 3-0, 2.66 in his last seven starts.
-- EdGonzalez is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts. Wells is 0-2, 4.43 in four starts for the Padres.

-- Indians won seven of last ten Westbrook starts.
-- Bronx won three of Karstens' last four starts. Marcum is 2-1, 2.81 in his last six starts.
-- Angels won four of last five Saunders starts (3-1, 3.68).
-- Rangers won six of last nine Millwood starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Cubs lost Mateo's last seven starts. Fogg has 11.28 RA in his last six starts.
-- Cain is 0-2, 8.76 in his last two starts.
-- Olsen is 0-2, 4.62 in his last four starts.
-- Cormier is 1-2, 7.62 in three home starts.

-- Garland is 0-3, 10.00 in his last three starts. Garza has 6.64 RA in his last four starts.
-- Loewen is 1-2, 4.81 in his last four starts. Wakefield is 0-3, 9.42 in three starts since coming off the DL.
-- Tampa Bay is 3-12 in Seo starts this season.
-- Miner is 0-3, 8.53 in his last three starts; this is his first start since August 23. Burgos makes first start for Royals after being reliever this year, and closer for part of year.
-- Haren is 2-3, 7.28 in his last five starts.
-- Hernandez is 0-3, 5.40 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Under is 6-2-1 in Cubs' last nine games.
-- Under is 15-6-1 in last twenty-two Cincinnati road games.
-- Six of last ten Met road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in Marlins' last seven games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee's last seven games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in Arizona's last nine games.
-- Six of last eight Dodger road games went over the total.


-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Ten of last twelve Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-4 in Baltimore's last thirteen road games.
-- Seven of last ten Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six White Sox games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Angel home games stayed under total.
-- Last five Seattle home games went over the total.


Hot Teams
-- Cubs won four of their last five home games.
-- Reds won five of their last six games.
-- Nationals are 11-6 in last seventeen home games.
-- Astros won nine of their last ten games. Braves are 13-6 in their last nineteen home games.
-- Phillies won seven of last ten games.
-- Padres won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Dodgers won last five games, scoring 46 runs.

-- Tigers are 4-3 in last seven games, can clinch divison today.
-- Indians won six of their last seven games.
-- Toronto won ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Twins won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Angels won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Colorado is 5-19 in their last twenty-four road games.
-- Pirates lost their last eight games.
-- Mets lost ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Marlins lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Brewers are 3-14 in their last seventeen road games. Cardinals lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Arizona is 5-7 in their last twelve games.
-- Giants lost eleven of their last thirteen games.


-- Royals lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Boston is 8-13 in its last twenty-one home games.
-- Devil Rays lost 26 of last 29 on the road.
-- Orioles lost ten of their last fourteen road games.
-- White Sox are 4-10 in their last fourteen games.
-- A's are 2-5 in last seven games, already clinched their division.
-- Mariners lost five of their last six games. Rangers lost six of their last nine games.

Umpires
-- (Col-Chi) Favorite is 12-3 in last fifteen BWelke games.
-- (LA-SF) Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Hirschbeck games.
-- (SD-Az) Six of last seven Darling games stayed under, with dogs winning four of last five.
-- (Mil-StL) Favorite won last six Timmons games, with last four staying under the total.
-- (Phil-Fla) Favorite is 11-1 in last 12 Randazzo games, with four of last five going over the total.
-- (NY-Wsh) Six of last seven Danley games went over total.
-- (Hst-Atl) Underdog is 19-11 in last thirty Marquez games.
-- (Cin-Pitt) Favorite is 21-3 in last 24 Layne games.

-- (Chi-Min) Five of last seven Crawford games stayed under.
-- (KC-Det) Nine of last 11 Demuth gamed went over total.
-- (Tor-NY) Favorite won last five Runge games.
-- (TB-Cle) Last four Tschida games went over the total.
-- (Blt-Bos) Underdog is 7-7 in last fourteen Gibson games.
-- (Tex-Sea) Under is 9-3 in last 12 Hernandez games.
-- (A's-LA) Favorite won seven of last eight Bell games.