Saints aint no Aints

[frankb03]

Saints +4 -104

The Superdome will be rocking tonight. A huge advantage for the Saints.

The Falcons have owned the Saints over the past 11 years. 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS. However, the Saints have covered 3 of last 4 and 4 of last 6. In New Orleans the Falcons are 8-3 SU and ATS. Once again, the past two season paint a different picture. Saints have covered the last two and won SU 2 of 3 at home.

The Falcons have been gaining huge chucks of yards on the ground. They've gained more than 200 yards in their first two games. Teams and defenses make adjustments and practice vs opposing team's tendencies. Teams have not had much success as road favorites off back to back 200 yard rushing games. Even less success off a home win.

Historically, undefeated road favorites are ATS losers. They cover less than 1/3 if they are facing an undefeated opponent.

Only 3 games into the season it's hard to judge the quality of opponent for both the Saints and Falcons. Both teams opponents have a combined record of 1-5. Sports bettors are unduly influenced by teams prior season and history. Sports bettors are also enamored with teams with better stats. It's interesting that teams with better offensive stats perform poorly as a road favorite. Road favorites only cover approx 45% of the games in which they average between 1/2 and a full yard per play than their opponent.

gl to all

[kbsooner21]

Love It!!!

[jmarty6969]

gl frank i think i am takeing the over nice write up and gl

[griffey_mojo]

GL tonight Frank!

I love home doggies!

[bover1]

Iam All Over It...cant Stand The Birds......thanks Frany Goes 2 Hollywood....gl

[thesandman]

Frank. I think we were reading the same stuff. I like them too.

[Spark]

Now I am all fvked up .... thanks buddy .... hahaha ... I am not posting this one because I really do not have an opinion but I was leaning on Atl ...

Good Luck Frankie

[Spark]

Great write up BTW pal

[Kaptain]

gl to ya Partner----too close to call for the Old Kapt........lets hope them bayou boys treat you right......kapt

[meaiken]

GL Frank

[KR-V3]

thanks for the well thought write up, gonna ML that sucker!! GL

[Spearit]

Nice write up Frank. Best of luck

[the lumberjack]

thanks frank!! i'm in again!!! gl!!!!

[frankb03]

Frank. I think we were reading the same stuff. I like them too.

Most of my write-ups are from my own research. I rarely paraphrase other authors. I take each game and compare the past performances of those team with the historical performances of teams in similar situations.

I often use team stats that I feel are strong indications of teams success in the NFL. Teams that rush for more yards win 73% of the games and cover almost 69% while teams who pass for more yards only cover 52% of the games. Teams that rush for more than 30 attempts and pass for less than 40 attempts when their opponent does not have equal offensive balance are 82% ATS. The key is trying to predict when those games will occur.

I've also found that teams with great recent rushing success, like the Falcons tonight, don't perform well ATS. The linesmakers probably overvalue these teams and more importantly, offensively those teams become one dimensional. Statiscally, they attempt more rushes. Thus, relying too much on the run. Balance wins NFL football games.

[zeib10]

I could not agree more. That place will be CRAZY tonight.

Nice call on the under yesterday.