TP's NCAA Plays for 9/30

[Tomorrows Paper]

Well, last week was quite successful, winning 5 plays, pushing 2, and losing none, picking up 10 units along the way. I’ll be immediately putting some of that glimmer back into play, as two games I have been waiting for since the preseason both take place this week.

NCAA Plays (17-11-3, +14.53)

5* Iowa +6.5 (-105) - This is an absolute steal. The list of teams I would take pk at Iowa reads as follows: Auburn
More on this later.
4* Florida -13 (-105)

[Tomorrows Paper]

Full card, plus a writeup on OSU/Iowa. All lines from Pinnacle unless otherwise specified.

5* Iowa +6.5 (-105) - that's how I played it, amazingly it has gone up to 7.

Let's start with this:

• Iowa has won 23 of 24 home games straight up, with the lone loss coming in overtime.
• Iowa has not lost a home game by more than 6 points this decade.
• Iowa is 25-6-1 against the spread at home lately.
• Iowa has only been a home underdog three times this decade, and it won all three games outright.
• One of those was two years ago, when a 2-2 Iowa team (+1) destroyed Ohio State 33-7.
• Iowa has covered 7 of its last 8 games when playing with revenge. Ferentz normally emphasizes these games, and it showed last week, as Iowa was very lethargic in beating Illinois.
• The home team historically is the way to go in this series, as that side has covered 7 of 9, including blowout wins the past couple meetings.

Remember coming into this season how everyone was saying how Ohio State's defense was going to be a major concern? For some reason everyone now thinks that defense is a strong unit because it has held four terrible offenses to 8 points per game. Of the four teams OSU has beaten (Northern Illinois, Texas, Cincy, Penn St.), none have a quarterback anywhere near as good as Tate, and only Northern Illinois features a back in the same class as Albert Young - that was Garret Wolfe, and he ran wild (172 yards rushing, 115 receiving - mostly on screens and checkdowns) without any help from the passing game. Now, Iowa's receivers are only average, but the Hawkeyes do feature the best receiving tight end in the nation in Chandler (you might could make an argument for Miller at ASU, but I'd say Chandler is #1), and that will present a unique challenge for an inexperienced Buckeye defense.
I'm not going to sit here and say Ohio State isn't going to score, but the Bucks' offense actually hasn't been as proficient as many had thought they would be, and I think they could struggle moving the ball against an Iowa defense that features one of the best lines in the nation. The DBs are above average - still its a tough matchup against OSU's bigtime receivers - but if the Hawkeye line can force enough pressure, I think they can hold their own.

4* Florida -13 (-105)
3* Indiana +11 (-110) - Bodog
2* South Carolina +14 (-105) - Bodog
2* Georgia Tech +9 (-104)
1* Baylor -1.5 (-105)
1* Florida Atlantic +14.5 (105)

[TheRook]

Good luck TP, love the analysis

[10DimeBry]

GL this weekend. i like iowa here also

[fatchat]

Your picks scare me, I have the opposite side on all and those are my best pick. GL to you this week, who know who will win? I have to triple check the my info.

[kbsooner21]

Good luck Paper! Good looking card as usual!

[longnex]

good luck

[vinnyvegas]

Nice write up TP...OSU has been a covering machine since last year (PSU game?)...11 or 12 straight ATS wins...this could be the end to that...I hope they just WIN and cover for you!!

[STaylor36]

I'll be with you on Iowa TP.


Good luck this weekend.

[MRhotPICKS]

good luck to you TP... let those Hawkeyes roll and let Michigan slip atop the Big 10 rankings!!

[moondog22]

thanks,I will be on Iowa

[Kaptain]

gl to ya TP---kapt

[littlebear]

Great call TP. How healthy are the Hawkeyes after last week??
My buddy that tells me how to play the hawks every week said if they are as healthy as last week that they will win the game outright.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Great call TP. How healthy are the Hawkeyes after last week??
My buddy that tells me how to play the hawks every week said if they are as healthy as last week that they will win the game outright.

Pretty healthy. There are a couple small injuries, but the one real concern is the injury to WR Calvin Davis, but he has been known to be out for the year for a couple weeks, so Ferentz has had plenty of time to deal with that.
Thanks everyone.

[***THA FIX***]

Good Luck TP!!! I hope IOWA kicks off in there ASS!!!! See that would mean that my boys would get a shot at USC!!! Good Luck on the picks my friend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!