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Pretty good week last week, going 3-1, including my second 5* play winning in convincing fashion as Michigan +7.5 not only won, but did so in blowout fashion. Week 4 brings very few marquee matchups, but I believe there are plenty of opportunities to pick up some cash. Here is what I played:
NCAA Plays 12-11-1, +4.53
4* Arkansas -1 (-108) - the line has gone down to a number I like a lot. Perhaps it falls more, but I'm expecting smart money to come in on the Hogs sooner or later.
Normally there would be one major caveat to this play - the fact that Arkansas's run defense is suspect. The good news is, this isn't a typical Alabama rushing offense. Kenneth Darby appeared poised to break Shaun Alexander's career rushing record going in to this season, but he has faced three weak defenses and managed only 169 yards. The reason is two-fold. One, he has been battling a hip pointer all season, but also, he is running behind a very mediocre offensive line. Freshman Andre Smith is a beast, but he's the only one that is above average. Also, the backup backs have had problems with fumbling, and they haven't been gaining many yards either.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama's defense is not anywhere near the level of the past couple years. Its secondary is in shambles, and I think future top 10 NFL draft pick Mitch Mustain exposes it in his first home start. But, the main thing is that he has a sensational duo of running backs behind him, and putting points on the board will be much easier for Mustain than his counterpart.
If Alabama continues to struggle running the ball, it simply cannot win. It's going to be John Parker Wilson's first road start - always potentially disastrous, but especially in the Nutthouse, where Arkansas has dominated the Tide since it entered the SEC. This is a pretty similar setup to two years ago, when 2-1 Arkansas was a slight favorite over 3-0 Alabama, and the Hogs rolled to a 27-10 victory. I think that's about the same type of game we have here.
3* Illinois +20.5 (+100) - Trap deluxe. Iowa just beat its biggest rival, Iowa State, and they are going to beat the #1 team in the nation next week. So, it won't be fully focused for an Illinois team that has correctly made the switch to Isaiah "Juice" Williams at quarterback. Not that it is much to go on, but he is expected to be a good one, and he showed signs of that last week when he entered in the fourth quarter and threw TD passes of 76 and 69 yards.
3* Houston ML -107
2* Arizona +21.5 (-108)
2* Notre Dame -3 (-110) - wow this is a donkey play. I just really believe this line would have been 7 or so last week, and the combination of last week's results and the revenge from last year, as well as the fact that I just feel Michigan State is not that great a team (not that ND is, but it's clear they are superior to Sparty), and I can't not play the Irish here.
1* Kansas -5.5 (+100)
May add one or more of these three: North Carolina, Kansas St., Kentucky. Thanks everyone, and good luck.
NCAA Plays 12-11-1, +4.53
4* Arkansas -1 (-108) - the line has gone down to a number I like a lot. Perhaps it falls more, but I'm expecting smart money to come in on the Hogs sooner or later.
Normally there would be one major caveat to this play - the fact that Arkansas's run defense is suspect. The good news is, this isn't a typical Alabama rushing offense. Kenneth Darby appeared poised to break Shaun Alexander's career rushing record going in to this season, but he has faced three weak defenses and managed only 169 yards. The reason is two-fold. One, he has been battling a hip pointer all season, but also, he is running behind a very mediocre offensive line. Freshman Andre Smith is a beast, but he's the only one that is above average. Also, the backup backs have had problems with fumbling, and they haven't been gaining many yards either.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama's defense is not anywhere near the level of the past couple years. Its secondary is in shambles, and I think future top 10 NFL draft pick Mitch Mustain exposes it in his first home start. But, the main thing is that he has a sensational duo of running backs behind him, and putting points on the board will be much easier for Mustain than his counterpart.
If Alabama continues to struggle running the ball, it simply cannot win. It's going to be John Parker Wilson's first road start - always potentially disastrous, but especially in the Nutthouse, where Arkansas has dominated the Tide since it entered the SEC. This is a pretty similar setup to two years ago, when 2-1 Arkansas was a slight favorite over 3-0 Alabama, and the Hogs rolled to a 27-10 victory. I think that's about the same type of game we have here.
3* Illinois +20.5 (+100) - Trap deluxe. Iowa just beat its biggest rival, Iowa State, and they are going to beat the #1 team in the nation next week. So, it won't be fully focused for an Illinois team that has correctly made the switch to Isaiah "Juice" Williams at quarterback. Not that it is much to go on, but he is expected to be a good one, and he showed signs of that last week when he entered in the fourth quarter and threw TD passes of 76 and 69 yards.
3* Houston ML -107
2* Arizona +21.5 (-108)
2* Notre Dame -3 (-110) - wow this is a donkey play. I just really believe this line would have been 7 or so last week, and the combination of last week's results and the revenge from last year, as well as the fact that I just feel Michigan State is not that great a team (not that ND is, but it's clear they are superior to Sparty), and I can't not play the Irish here.
1* Kansas -5.5 (+100)
May add one or more of these three: North Carolina, Kansas St., Kentucky. Thanks everyone, and good luck.
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