Minn/Purdue

[TOYER]

Can anyone tell me why Minn. is favored by 3 points at purdue
when they havn't won there in over 10 years? The gophers couldnt stop the pass last week against the bears and purdue will pass the ball plenty. Thanks for any info. Lets Go!

[BigTicket]

I am not a college football handicapper by any means, but I have seen multiple posts just like yours on a variety of forums, all of them wondering why the heck the gophers are favored at Purdue.

Well, it seems to be something is up and the books are right more times than not. My opinion with a line this out of wack, SEEMINGLY, is to bet the team who hasnt been favored at purdue in 10 years but is all of a sudden favored this year.

[vinnyvegas]

FWIW...

Line is wrong...I have Minn FAV by 5

Here are areas/reasons I see Minn winning and value in low line (keep in mind it's my view of game based on lots of factors and stats; this has been back tested and has had a tremendous run of me getting a 'TRUE' line vs what Vegas throws out; so it's a TOOL to give me value in games where needed, not so much a prediction):

Rushing game: Minn +2; more yds gained and higher ratio of rushing plays keeps ball in Minn hands longer. Avg's per rush attempt and pass attempt same but yd diff between the 2 almost double the other +1 for Minn

TO's: Minn has huge edge; +2

Yds/pt scored and Yds/pt allowed again Minn has edge 4 to 1; Min +3

HOME FIELD: Purdue; +3

So in the very abbreviated version of what my computer program takes in and spits out...

Minn +8
Purdue +3

EQUALS Minn FAV -5

Here's the RUB...Vegas says -2.5, I say -5...in all the games played between Thurs/Sat, does this game have more value or less based on projected lines and Vegas lines as compared to all the other games being lined/played?? That's the million dollar ? or view I sift through...Vegas doesn't get them all right, so you have to be selective, IMO.

Hope this helps a little? I didn't get into all the specifics since it would take too much time and I'm proud of my creation. I do factor in other items when I whittle the list down...there can be trends, TV, injuries, rapes, inside stuff that can complete change my value...or BC cappers who are tried and true...LOL

I've always felt that Vegas does what I do but at a scale that most wouldn't believe and well in advance of what we would comprehend...then again??

GL if you take this game! Put a gun to my head I take Minn easily...but I can say it's been wrong before and will be wrong again!

[Kaptain]

gonna be a close one either way---kapt

I like the OVER 65 here

[frankb03]

I like Purdue + the points.