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Car -3 (-114)
First off, I apologize for the novel-type write-up, but there's so much to say in favor of my pick, I had a hard time condensing it. I hate GOY, GOC terms so I chose my words carefully in the title of this thread. Anyway, as much as I hate to bet against my team, TB IS AWFUL. I actually thought the over 8 season win total was a lock, and Chris Simms had me fooled from last year's performance. They are a 3-pt dog on Sunday to Carolina who is also 0-2. IMO, these teams are about as far apart as two 0-2 teams can be. Carolina lost on Sunday because their coach called an idiot play on a punt return. Yes, in their first game they did get outplayed by Atlanta, but I think Atl is a really good team especially with a healthy Abraham who caused havoc in that game. The most important factor in Carolina's 0-2 start is the fact that Steve Smith hasn't played. TB on the other hand got spanked by Baltimore and Atlanta. The only reason the score was 14-3 was because Atlanta's kicker was 0-4 from gimme range. I know everyone (including me) is pointing the finger at Simms, and how can you not after throwing 0 TDs and 6 INTs in the first two games, but TB also has problems on D giving up over 300 yards rushing to Atlanta who they normally handle. As was rarely the case when they played against Vick, they looked about 3 steps slow on Sunday. I've watched both games, and this team really doesn't look like it gives a fu*k. I've heard before that players grow tired of Gruden's antics, and there's rumblings coming from Tampa that this may be what is happening. Carolina is 5-1 against TB the last 6, and although they are 0-2, I still think they are a top 3 team in the NFC. Given TB's o-line problems, Carolina's d-line should be in Simms' face all day which means he may throw 4 INTs this game. As much as I try to think of just one reason TB can pull this one out, I can't come up with any. I'm playing it now because the line is 3, and I think it will go up prior to Sunday. As the kiss of death, this may be the largest wager I've ever placed because I see about 5% chance of TB winning this game. Take it for what it's worth (cuz I'm a terrible capper), but I really can't conjur how Chris Simms can turn it around in one week versus a D that's this good in Carolina. If Steve Smith plays (I think he will), it even makes this play stronger (obviously). As I said previously, I hate to root against my team, but money is money, and I see them going nowhere this season so I should cash in while I can. GL if you follow, and if anyone has a reason why they think TB will cover this spread, feel free to share. Thanks!!!
First off, I apologize for the novel-type write-up, but there's so much to say in favor of my pick, I had a hard time condensing it. I hate GOY, GOC terms so I chose my words carefully in the title of this thread. Anyway, as much as I hate to bet against my team, TB IS AWFUL. I actually thought the over 8 season win total was a lock, and Chris Simms had me fooled from last year's performance. They are a 3-pt dog on Sunday to Carolina who is also 0-2. IMO, these teams are about as far apart as two 0-2 teams can be. Carolina lost on Sunday because their coach called an idiot play on a punt return. Yes, in their first game they did get outplayed by Atlanta, but I think Atl is a really good team especially with a healthy Abraham who caused havoc in that game. The most important factor in Carolina's 0-2 start is the fact that Steve Smith hasn't played. TB on the other hand got spanked by Baltimore and Atlanta. The only reason the score was 14-3 was because Atlanta's kicker was 0-4 from gimme range. I know everyone (including me) is pointing the finger at Simms, and how can you not after throwing 0 TDs and 6 INTs in the first two games, but TB also has problems on D giving up over 300 yards rushing to Atlanta who they normally handle. As was rarely the case when they played against Vick, they looked about 3 steps slow on Sunday. I've watched both games, and this team really doesn't look like it gives a fu*k. I've heard before that players grow tired of Gruden's antics, and there's rumblings coming from Tampa that this may be what is happening. Carolina is 5-1 against TB the last 6, and although they are 0-2, I still think they are a top 3 team in the NFC. Given TB's o-line problems, Carolina's d-line should be in Simms' face all day which means he may throw 4 INTs this game. As much as I try to think of just one reason TB can pull this one out, I can't come up with any. I'm playing it now because the line is 3, and I think it will go up prior to Sunday. As the kiss of death, this may be the largest wager I've ever placed because I see about 5% chance of TB winning this game. Take it for what it's worth (cuz I'm a terrible capper), but I really can't conjur how Chris Simms can turn it around in one week versus a D that's this good in Carolina. If Steve Smith plays (I think he will), it even makes this play stronger (obviously). As I said previously, I hate to root against my team, but money is money, and I see them going nowhere this season so I should cash in while I can. GL if you follow, and if anyone has a reason why they think TB will cover this spread, feel free to share. Thanks!!!
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