College Football UNDER System

[dave T]

A while back I posted a College Football Totals System that had really good results last season. Since I have not taken it back farther, use (or not) at your own risk. Last week it had its first plays of this season:

UNDER Tenn @ FLORIDA (46') 21-20 Win
UNDER Miami Fl @ L'VILLE (53') 7-31 Win

This week is has one play:

UNDER Alabama-ARKANSAS

gl,
dave

[garth]

Do you mind sharing the system, dave? Thanks and good luck.

[moondog22]

yes,do you have more info Dave

[jmarty6969]

hahaha any angle is always good dave thanks for the info

[DIRK]

Gl

[dave T]

Here's a paste of the original post:

Not sure how this pans out over the years, but here's some tasty numbers from last season for College Football Totals. Discovered this doing some research last week. It is a system for UNDERS in College Football.

Here is a look at teams that rushed for 200> yards in their last game AND passed for 200> yards in that same game.

These teams went UNDER the total their next game 94 out of 162 times. The record of 94-68 is 58.02%, not bad considering the number of plays.

Now some teams AVERAGE 200> yards rushing anyway. Here's the breakdown of that 94-68 record:

Teams that were AVERAGING 200> rushing yards at the time of the proposed UNDER play: 36-40 UNDER

Teams that were AVERAGING <200 rushing yards at the time of the proposed UNDER play: 58-28 UNDER, or 67.44%.

Here's a breakdown of that 58-28 record according to conference:

ACC: 6-2
BIG EAST 5-2
BIG TEN 11-4
BIG TWELVE: 3-2
C-USA: 6-4
IND.: 1-1
MAC: 6-1
MWC: 4-6
PAC TEN: 3-2
SEC: 6-1
SUN BELT: 3-0
WAC: 4-3

An astute observer will notice that the three primarily West Coast conferences were less successful playing the UNDER. The Pac Ten, MWC, and WAC were a combined 11-11. The remaining conferences were 47-17 UNDER, or 73.44%.

What if the team met the criteria two weeks back to back? That is, they rushed for 200> yards in each of their last two games and passed for 200> yards in each of those same two games. In that situaton they were 7-0 UNDER. If you wanted to play those games as double plays, you would in effect have a 54-17 record (47-17 + 7-0).

As a sidenote, although the West Coast conferences had a 11-11 record, four of those games were double plays and went 3-1, for what it is worth. But that is only one game away from 2-2, so I wouldn't be crazy about going UNDER on the West Coast even if it were a double play.

gl,
dave

[ChuckLazar]

Thanks Dave

[Spearit]

Nice Info And Work Dave

[vondie]

Good find dave....keep up the good work...I already liked that bama under too.

[***THA FIX***]

Thanks Dave!!!