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HERE'S A PLAY OFF TOMORROWS CARD GUYS. GL IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY!
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KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/17/2006 4:15 PM
vs. 
Analysis
This line has jumped tremendously due to the injury to Trent Green. However, the Broncos have almost as bad a problem with their quarterback. Denver (0-1 SU & ATS) got smacked around at St. Louis, losing 18-10 as QB Jake Plummer was horrible (3 picks). Five times, the Broncos' offense committed a turnover, four by quarterback Jake Plummer. Including the AFC championship game, Plummer has committed eight turnovers in his past two games. Indeed, about all the Broncos can take from their loss to the Rams is they also lost the opener last year, only to win 14 of their next 16 including the playoffs. As bad as it was for Denver last week, it was even worse for their opponent and so bad that after just a single game, Kansas City head coach Herm Edwards is already under fire. The formerly brilliant Chiefs offense, which scored 30 points or more 30 times in the past five years, is now a memory. Edwards took over what had been the No. 1 offense in the NFL the last two seasons, and decided to go conservative. Go figure? Edwards offense was so predicable that it was almost non-existent. Edwards wants to focus his attention to the running the football more to take the pressure off the defense. Well they did! They ran for 113 yards and passed for just 176 in the opener. And that got them a 23-10 home loss to the Bengal’s. Making matters worse is that QB Trent Green got head trauma and won't play here. Veteran backup Damon Huard got the call when Green went down. It will be the first start for Huard since he was with Miami in 2000, but he nevertheless filled in admirably going 12 of 20 last week in relief of Green. Despite their offensive struggles the Chiefs defense was strong last week against arguably a top 5 offense in the NFL. Pressuring Carson Palmer all day, the Chiefs permitted the Bengals to gain only 236 yards and allowed them only one scoring drive longer than 37 yards.
After thinking about this game very hard, I see no other choice but to recommend a selection on both the side and the posted total, traditionally a handicapping no-no in the NFL. As mentioned above, Plummer has recently been a turnover machine. As a direct result of that, look for Denver’s HC Mike Shanahan to severely restrict Plummer’s passing in this game. He will be a hand-off machine, as the Broncos simply cannot afford numerous turnovers especially as a heavy favorite. That fact alone will keep this game lower scoring and give the Chiefs an excellent chance to cover this mighty number. Now I mentioned above about how Herman Edwards wanted to go to a more conservative offense. The direct result of that will certainly be a vast improvement in the aforementioned Chiefs defense, and it will also keep that clock moving, which will benefit both the high side number and the posted total. In case you haven't noticed, the Chiefs now have TWO defensive coordinators in the executive branch of locker room as both Gunther Cunningham and Edwards are defensive minded coaches. "I'm not worried about our defense," has been his line throughout the summer. Defense is all about attitude, and the KC defense has a lot of reasons to be all about attitude in this game. First, they were embarrassed on national television the last time they played here, when Denver ran all over them on the ground, sprinting out to a lead and not looking back. Although they came back and beat Denver in KC last season, there is still that bad performance to erase. The second reason for the amped-up defensive attitude is that starting QB Trent Green is out, and the team's offense was already in a questionable state after the departure of last season's starting tackles Roaf and Welbourne, and the move from Priest Holmes to Larry Johnson as the definite featured back. The only way the Chiefs can win this game with Damon Huard as their quarterback is with their defense. Otherwise, if Huard is forced to put it in the air when the Chiefs are trailing then this will be over by the second quarter, and the Chiefs know that!
If you have gotten this far in the writ-up here me out on the rest of this. Many of you will still be concerned over the fact that Kansas City was not even competitive last week, while Denver played a nail biter. Well, theoretically, the reason why the Chiefs were so flat last week was that they were looking forward to this game. It’s the classic “home against a-non-divisional opponent before visiting a strong divisional rival syndrome. Think about this, the Bucs, Browns and Redskins all were in the same situation and all looked terrible in week 1 so don’t be at all surprised if the Chiefs look to be a completely different team this time around. From a technical standpoint, I’ll note that the Chiefs are a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog after a straight up loss at home, covering by an average of 10.1 points per game. With a number this big, it’s very hard for a running team like the Broncos to cover so grab this highly over-inflated number.
Sunday’s Forecast: DEN Broncos 14, KC Chiefs 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY +10.5
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY /DENVER UNDER 38.5
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KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/17/2006 4:15 PM
vs. Analysis
This line has jumped tremendously due to the injury to Trent Green. However, the Broncos have almost as bad a problem with their quarterback. Denver (0-1 SU & ATS) got smacked around at St. Louis, losing 18-10 as QB Jake Plummer was horrible (3 picks). Five times, the Broncos' offense committed a turnover, four by quarterback Jake Plummer. Including the AFC championship game, Plummer has committed eight turnovers in his past two games. Indeed, about all the Broncos can take from their loss to the Rams is they also lost the opener last year, only to win 14 of their next 16 including the playoffs. As bad as it was for Denver last week, it was even worse for their opponent and so bad that after just a single game, Kansas City head coach Herm Edwards is already under fire. The formerly brilliant Chiefs offense, which scored 30 points or more 30 times in the past five years, is now a memory. Edwards took over what had been the No. 1 offense in the NFL the last two seasons, and decided to go conservative. Go figure? Edwards offense was so predicable that it was almost non-existent. Edwards wants to focus his attention to the running the football more to take the pressure off the defense. Well they did! They ran for 113 yards and passed for just 176 in the opener. And that got them a 23-10 home loss to the Bengal’s. Making matters worse is that QB Trent Green got head trauma and won't play here. Veteran backup Damon Huard got the call when Green went down. It will be the first start for Huard since he was with Miami in 2000, but he nevertheless filled in admirably going 12 of 20 last week in relief of Green. Despite their offensive struggles the Chiefs defense was strong last week against arguably a top 5 offense in the NFL. Pressuring Carson Palmer all day, the Chiefs permitted the Bengals to gain only 236 yards and allowed them only one scoring drive longer than 37 yards.
After thinking about this game very hard, I see no other choice but to recommend a selection on both the side and the posted total, traditionally a handicapping no-no in the NFL. As mentioned above, Plummer has recently been a turnover machine. As a direct result of that, look for Denver’s HC Mike Shanahan to severely restrict Plummer’s passing in this game. He will be a hand-off machine, as the Broncos simply cannot afford numerous turnovers especially as a heavy favorite. That fact alone will keep this game lower scoring and give the Chiefs an excellent chance to cover this mighty number. Now I mentioned above about how Herman Edwards wanted to go to a more conservative offense. The direct result of that will certainly be a vast improvement in the aforementioned Chiefs defense, and it will also keep that clock moving, which will benefit both the high side number and the posted total. In case you haven't noticed, the Chiefs now have TWO defensive coordinators in the executive branch of locker room as both Gunther Cunningham and Edwards are defensive minded coaches. "I'm not worried about our defense," has been his line throughout the summer. Defense is all about attitude, and the KC defense has a lot of reasons to be all about attitude in this game. First, they were embarrassed on national television the last time they played here, when Denver ran all over them on the ground, sprinting out to a lead and not looking back. Although they came back and beat Denver in KC last season, there is still that bad performance to erase. The second reason for the amped-up defensive attitude is that starting QB Trent Green is out, and the team's offense was already in a questionable state after the departure of last season's starting tackles Roaf and Welbourne, and the move from Priest Holmes to Larry Johnson as the definite featured back. The only way the Chiefs can win this game with Damon Huard as their quarterback is with their defense. Otherwise, if Huard is forced to put it in the air when the Chiefs are trailing then this will be over by the second quarter, and the Chiefs know that!
If you have gotten this far in the writ-up here me out on the rest of this. Many of you will still be concerned over the fact that Kansas City was not even competitive last week, while Denver played a nail biter. Well, theoretically, the reason why the Chiefs were so flat last week was that they were looking forward to this game. It’s the classic “home against a-non-divisional opponent before visiting a strong divisional rival syndrome. Think about this, the Bucs, Browns and Redskins all were in the same situation and all looked terrible in week 1 so don’t be at all surprised if the Chiefs look to be a completely different team this time around. From a technical standpoint, I’ll note that the Chiefs are a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog after a straight up loss at home, covering by an average of 10.1 points per game. With a number this big, it’s very hard for a running team like the Broncos to cover so grab this highly over-inflated number.
Sunday’s Forecast: DEN Broncos 14, KC Chiefs 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY +10.5
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY /DENVER UNDER 38.5
NFL
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