Tweet
HEY GUYS...RUNNING OUT OF TIME AS YOU CAN SEE BUT I'LL SHARE A FEW SELECTIONS WITH YOU FOR SATURDAY. GL IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY!
----------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN ST (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/16/2006 12:00 PM
vs. 
Analysis
A couple of power offenses meet at Pitt. Michigan State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is similar to last season when they got off to a 4-0 start. However, they flopped after that and the team doesn't want to see that happen again. The Spartan offense is loaded behind senior QB Drew Stanton, sophomore running back Javon Ringer and WRs Jerramy Scott and senior Terry Love. But after a couple of cupcakes, they now face a good team for the first time. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is playing with great confidence (2-0 SU & ATS) after beating Cincinnati and Virginia. Pittsburgh and second-year coach Dave Wannstedt are off to a great start, thrashing Virginia behind senior QB Tyler Palko, who returns for his third season as Pitt's starting quarterback. Palko threw a pair of TD passes routing Virginia 38-13, then they cleaned up the Bearcats when Palko went 11-of-21 for 267 yards, throwing three touchdown passes. Palko is teamed with an almost-new cast of receivers, but they've been clicking and the defense is very good, led by middle linebacker H.B. Blades, a two-time first-team All-Big East selection. In 2005, Pitt ranked second nationally and tops in the Big East in pass defense, yielding just 152.8 yards per game through the air led behind talented junior cornerback Darrelle Revis. Although the final scores of Pitt’s first two games look impressive, a closer inspection of those results show that Pitt has not been nearly as impressive as the final scores might indicate. Both teams that Pitt destroyed are relatively weak foes, not even comparable to the Michigan State team they’ll be facing this Saturday. Virginia needed a missed extra point to beat Wyoming in overtime at home this past Saturday, while Cincinnati was a four win team last year that doesn’t look to be much better in 2006. The fact that the Panthers had problems pulling away from both clubs is a cause for concern as both Cincinnati and Virginia, have probably the most pedestrian attacks in the country. There is no Drew Stanton, Matt Trannon or Javon Ringer on either of these teams. The Panthers have also enjoyed the added benefit of playing against a trio of weak quarterbacks in their two games, returning three interceptions for touchdowns. They have also been unable to run the football, gaining less than three yards per carry in the two games combined. In short, Pittsburgh is the epitome of an overvalued football team heading into their test with the Spartans this weekend. Michigan State has a star senior quarterback, Drew Stanton, hitting 70% of his passes this season, a superior running attack, with Javon Ringer carrying the load. MSU beat Notre Dame and Illinois on the road last September and they scored 52 points last week, despite a sluggish first half against Eastern Michigan. Look for the Spartans to take care of business in Pittsburgh on Saturday as the wrong team is favored here.
Saturday’s Forecast: Pittsburgh 24, Michigan St 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MICHIGAN STATE +2.5
NAVY (2 - 0) at STANFORD (0 - 2)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/16/2006 10:00 PM
vs. 
Analysis
Despite last weekend’s complete meltdown against Massachusetts, Navy has continued to be impressive this season. Despite, fumbling a whopping seven times (lost three), an interception, muffed a punt and completing just one pass, the Midshipman still managed to hold on the beat Massachusetts, 21-20. Over the past two (2) seasons, losses have been rare for the Midshipmen as they are riding a current 13-4 run in which half of the defeats came by three points. That means that when navy does lose, those defeats create some bitter memories, which means a concerted effort to turn the tables when given the chance. Now they have the opportunity to make amends for a bitter 41-38 loss to the Cardinal at Annapolis last year, and it is hard to imagine better matchups for them to exploit then this Stanford stop unit. Stanford (0-2 SU/ATS) is off to a dreadful start losing to San Jose State last week after getting blown out at Oregon. Coach Walt Harris still has a long way to go to get this team playing competitively even with 16 returning starters, 10 on offense. The defense allowed a staggering 342 yards rushing against the Spartans for a hefty 7.0 yards per carry. This was after it gave up 298 yards on the ground to Oregon. Cardinal QB Trent Edwards did throw four touchdown passes while finishing 18 of 28 for 233 yards with one interception.
It’s pretty clear how Navy will attack this game, as I expect them to again pass the ball less then 10 times over the course of this contest. So given the fact that Navy will run the ball virtually 90% of their plays, we have no other choice but to back this Navy squad no matter what the price, especially when we consider the following. Navy’s intricate option schemes, will create havoc against a Stanford team that plays in a pass-oriented conference. Even worse, this Stanford unit that has been absolutely horrendous against the run as both Oregon and San Jose State piled up a 640 yards at 7.1 per carry through the first two weeks. But it is not just a weakness up front, the Cardinal defense is also allowing a staggering 76.7% completions in those same games. Stanford is a pathetic 20-57-2 SU and 18-54-2 ATS at home when the other team wins the rushing yards and the last time Navy was out rushed was November of 2003, 28 games ago. Indeed, The Middies, who have rushed for at least 200 yards in each of their last 22 games and are an impressive 47-12 ATS as an underdog when they hit the 200 yard mark. Included in those 59 games for the Midshipmen is a 38-13 ATS log on the road, a 38-10 ATS mark with revenge and a 29-4 ATS record as a road underdog. That also ties nicely into the Middies' 54-18 ATS mark in games away from home when they outrush an opponent, including 34-7 ATS as a dog. Contrast that with Stanford, which has allowed 300+ rushing yards in both of its games this season. Remember when I said that Navy (has rushed for at least 200 yards in each of their last 22 games), well is Stanford gives up 200 yards or more on the ground then they are 24-58 ATS. Included in those 82 games is a 4-20 ATS record as a favorite, a 9-28 ATS at home and a 2-14 ATS log as a home favorite. The only argument for back the Cardinal would be that this is game will mark the opening of the rebuilt Stanford Stadium so maybe that will be some inspiration. However, given the fact that Midshipmen have a very strong Bay area following that should help to negate their minimal home advantage. Kill!
Saturday’s Forecast: Stanford 24, Navy 41
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NAVY +1
----------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN ST (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/16/2006 12:00 PM
vs. Analysis
A couple of power offenses meet at Pitt. Michigan State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is similar to last season when they got off to a 4-0 start. However, they flopped after that and the team doesn't want to see that happen again. The Spartan offense is loaded behind senior QB Drew Stanton, sophomore running back Javon Ringer and WRs Jerramy Scott and senior Terry Love. But after a couple of cupcakes, they now face a good team for the first time. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is playing with great confidence (2-0 SU & ATS) after beating Cincinnati and Virginia. Pittsburgh and second-year coach Dave Wannstedt are off to a great start, thrashing Virginia behind senior QB Tyler Palko, who returns for his third season as Pitt's starting quarterback. Palko threw a pair of TD passes routing Virginia 38-13, then they cleaned up the Bearcats when Palko went 11-of-21 for 267 yards, throwing three touchdown passes. Palko is teamed with an almost-new cast of receivers, but they've been clicking and the defense is very good, led by middle linebacker H.B. Blades, a two-time first-team All-Big East selection. In 2005, Pitt ranked second nationally and tops in the Big East in pass defense, yielding just 152.8 yards per game through the air led behind talented junior cornerback Darrelle Revis. Although the final scores of Pitt’s first two games look impressive, a closer inspection of those results show that Pitt has not been nearly as impressive as the final scores might indicate. Both teams that Pitt destroyed are relatively weak foes, not even comparable to the Michigan State team they’ll be facing this Saturday. Virginia needed a missed extra point to beat Wyoming in overtime at home this past Saturday, while Cincinnati was a four win team last year that doesn’t look to be much better in 2006. The fact that the Panthers had problems pulling away from both clubs is a cause for concern as both Cincinnati and Virginia, have probably the most pedestrian attacks in the country. There is no Drew Stanton, Matt Trannon or Javon Ringer on either of these teams. The Panthers have also enjoyed the added benefit of playing against a trio of weak quarterbacks in their two games, returning three interceptions for touchdowns. They have also been unable to run the football, gaining less than three yards per carry in the two games combined. In short, Pittsburgh is the epitome of an overvalued football team heading into their test with the Spartans this weekend. Michigan State has a star senior quarterback, Drew Stanton, hitting 70% of his passes this season, a superior running attack, with Javon Ringer carrying the load. MSU beat Notre Dame and Illinois on the road last September and they scored 52 points last week, despite a sluggish first half against Eastern Michigan. Look for the Spartans to take care of business in Pittsburgh on Saturday as the wrong team is favored here.
Saturday’s Forecast: Pittsburgh 24, Michigan St 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MICHIGAN STATE +2.5
NAVY (2 - 0) at STANFORD (0 - 2)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/16/2006 10:00 PM
vs. Analysis
Despite last weekend’s complete meltdown against Massachusetts, Navy has continued to be impressive this season. Despite, fumbling a whopping seven times (lost three), an interception, muffed a punt and completing just one pass, the Midshipman still managed to hold on the beat Massachusetts, 21-20. Over the past two (2) seasons, losses have been rare for the Midshipmen as they are riding a current 13-4 run in which half of the defeats came by three points. That means that when navy does lose, those defeats create some bitter memories, which means a concerted effort to turn the tables when given the chance. Now they have the opportunity to make amends for a bitter 41-38 loss to the Cardinal at Annapolis last year, and it is hard to imagine better matchups for them to exploit then this Stanford stop unit. Stanford (0-2 SU/ATS) is off to a dreadful start losing to San Jose State last week after getting blown out at Oregon. Coach Walt Harris still has a long way to go to get this team playing competitively even with 16 returning starters, 10 on offense. The defense allowed a staggering 342 yards rushing against the Spartans for a hefty 7.0 yards per carry. This was after it gave up 298 yards on the ground to Oregon. Cardinal QB Trent Edwards did throw four touchdown passes while finishing 18 of 28 for 233 yards with one interception.
It’s pretty clear how Navy will attack this game, as I expect them to again pass the ball less then 10 times over the course of this contest. So given the fact that Navy will run the ball virtually 90% of their plays, we have no other choice but to back this Navy squad no matter what the price, especially when we consider the following. Navy’s intricate option schemes, will create havoc against a Stanford team that plays in a pass-oriented conference. Even worse, this Stanford unit that has been absolutely horrendous against the run as both Oregon and San Jose State piled up a 640 yards at 7.1 per carry through the first two weeks. But it is not just a weakness up front, the Cardinal defense is also allowing a staggering 76.7% completions in those same games. Stanford is a pathetic 20-57-2 SU and 18-54-2 ATS at home when the other team wins the rushing yards and the last time Navy was out rushed was November of 2003, 28 games ago. Indeed, The Middies, who have rushed for at least 200 yards in each of their last 22 games and are an impressive 47-12 ATS as an underdog when they hit the 200 yard mark. Included in those 59 games for the Midshipmen is a 38-13 ATS log on the road, a 38-10 ATS mark with revenge and a 29-4 ATS record as a road underdog. That also ties nicely into the Middies' 54-18 ATS mark in games away from home when they outrush an opponent, including 34-7 ATS as a dog. Contrast that with Stanford, which has allowed 300+ rushing yards in both of its games this season. Remember when I said that Navy (has rushed for at least 200 yards in each of their last 22 games), well is Stanford gives up 200 yards or more on the ground then they are 24-58 ATS. Included in those 82 games is a 4-20 ATS record as a favorite, a 9-28 ATS at home and a 2-14 ATS log as a home favorite. The only argument for back the Cardinal would be that this is game will mark the opening of the rebuilt Stanford Stadium so maybe that will be some inspiration. However, given the fact that Midshipmen have a very strong Bay area following that should help to negate their minimal home advantage. Kill!
Saturday’s Forecast: Stanford 24, Navy 41
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NAVY +1
Comment