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KANSAS (2 - 0) at TOLEDO (0 - 2)
Week 3 Friday, 9/15/2006 8:00 PM
vs. 
Analysis
Home for the first time this season, Toledo is all-out to avoid a 0-3 start to the season. The Rockets got demolished last weekend fresh off a 21-point loss as 11-point favorite. Toledo (0-2) is retooling this season because of sophomore QB Clint Cochran. Last week the Rockets got bit by big-play efforts by the Western Michigan defense as Cochran was intercepted twice and sacked five times. He also lost one fumble and bobbled a snap that wiped out a field goal attempt. Meanwhile, Kansas tuned up for this contest with a home game against a lowly Louisiana Monroe squad, and had to hang for dear life in a 21-19 win. UL-Monroe missed a two-point conversion with three minutes left to allow Kansas to escape with a 21-19 win. Despite being 2-0 there is cause for concern as Kansas has a true freshman at QB in Kerry Meier, who will be making his first road start of his career. Jon Cornish rushed for 103 yards for the Jayhawks (2-0). The senior running back, who had 140 yards rushing the week before against Northwestern State, also picked up 62 yards on two receptions. The main concern for the Jayhawks has to be the nearly 400 yards of passing offense allowed in last weekends contest as their eight new starters on defense are still making adjustments. After looking quit in-depth on this matchup I can confidently say that this should be one of the easiest games to handicap in my career…which does tend to scare me a bit since it seems too easy.
Simply put, Toledo owns situational, fundamental, motivational and technical advantages over this Kansas team. First off, we have a 0-2 team desperately needed a win, playing it first game at home (always a good angle) against a true-freshman quarterback making his first road appearance of his career (again another very profitable proposition). One report I read on the freshman QB from a first-hand observer says: ''Meier’s final stats looked decent on paper, but he looked every bit a freshman in his second game. He failed to make good reads and find secondary receivers. Instead, he chose to force the ball to receivers who were not open. This resulted in easy interceptions for Lousiana-Monroe...'' Kansas failed to get a first down on seven of 12 possessions in last week's game. Even better, Toledo is looking to avenge an early-season 62-10 loss at Kansas in 2004, when many defensive starters were suspended. Some of those defensive players are still with the program and are about to show what a difference having the whole team makes. Something else to consider is the fact that other than a bowl game, Kansas has never played a weeknight game during the current tenure of head coach Mark Mangino, who is dealing with a compressed schedule for the first time, Toledo has the advantage of having played 18 weeknight games since 2002. Fundamentally, Toledo should be able to exploit the above mention week secondary of the Jayhawks as Cochran (who will be the focus of this offense) will air it out again against the Jayhawks. From a technical standpoint, the numbers are mind boggling. The Rockets are 12-1 ATS at home against an opponent who is off a win and 34-2 SU on this field since 1999, averaging 40 points per game in those 36 home games. During that same stretch, the Rockets are 10-0 ATS against non-MAC foes, 7-0 ATS off a loss of ten or more and 6-0 ATS against opponents who are off back-to-back wins. In comparison, Kansas is 21-70 ATS when allowing 28 or more, and 28 should certainly be achievable with this offense. Factor in that Rockets HC Tom Amstutz has never lost three games in a row and is 13-2 ATS in the Glass City against an opponent off a win and I’ll let you decide. Is it too easy? Let’s hope not!
Friday’s Forecast: Toledo 31, Kansas 21
OPINION SELECTION ON TOLEDO -3.5
Week 3 Friday, 9/15/2006 8:00 PM
vs. Analysis
Home for the first time this season, Toledo is all-out to avoid a 0-3 start to the season. The Rockets got demolished last weekend fresh off a 21-point loss as 11-point favorite. Toledo (0-2) is retooling this season because of sophomore QB Clint Cochran. Last week the Rockets got bit by big-play efforts by the Western Michigan defense as Cochran was intercepted twice and sacked five times. He also lost one fumble and bobbled a snap that wiped out a field goal attempt. Meanwhile, Kansas tuned up for this contest with a home game against a lowly Louisiana Monroe squad, and had to hang for dear life in a 21-19 win. UL-Monroe missed a two-point conversion with three minutes left to allow Kansas to escape with a 21-19 win. Despite being 2-0 there is cause for concern as Kansas has a true freshman at QB in Kerry Meier, who will be making his first road start of his career. Jon Cornish rushed for 103 yards for the Jayhawks (2-0). The senior running back, who had 140 yards rushing the week before against Northwestern State, also picked up 62 yards on two receptions. The main concern for the Jayhawks has to be the nearly 400 yards of passing offense allowed in last weekends contest as their eight new starters on defense are still making adjustments. After looking quit in-depth on this matchup I can confidently say that this should be one of the easiest games to handicap in my career…which does tend to scare me a bit since it seems too easy.
Simply put, Toledo owns situational, fundamental, motivational and technical advantages over this Kansas team. First off, we have a 0-2 team desperately needed a win, playing it first game at home (always a good angle) against a true-freshman quarterback making his first road appearance of his career (again another very profitable proposition). One report I read on the freshman QB from a first-hand observer says: ''Meier’s final stats looked decent on paper, but he looked every bit a freshman in his second game. He failed to make good reads and find secondary receivers. Instead, he chose to force the ball to receivers who were not open. This resulted in easy interceptions for Lousiana-Monroe...'' Kansas failed to get a first down on seven of 12 possessions in last week's game. Even better, Toledo is looking to avenge an early-season 62-10 loss at Kansas in 2004, when many defensive starters were suspended. Some of those defensive players are still with the program and are about to show what a difference having the whole team makes. Something else to consider is the fact that other than a bowl game, Kansas has never played a weeknight game during the current tenure of head coach Mark Mangino, who is dealing with a compressed schedule for the first time, Toledo has the advantage of having played 18 weeknight games since 2002. Fundamentally, Toledo should be able to exploit the above mention week secondary of the Jayhawks as Cochran (who will be the focus of this offense) will air it out again against the Jayhawks. From a technical standpoint, the numbers are mind boggling. The Rockets are 12-1 ATS at home against an opponent who is off a win and 34-2 SU on this field since 1999, averaging 40 points per game in those 36 home games. During that same stretch, the Rockets are 10-0 ATS against non-MAC foes, 7-0 ATS off a loss of ten or more and 6-0 ATS against opponents who are off back-to-back wins. In comparison, Kansas is 21-70 ATS when allowing 28 or more, and 28 should certainly be achievable with this offense. Factor in that Rockets HC Tom Amstutz has never lost three games in a row and is 13-2 ATS in the Glass City against an opponent off a win and I’ll let you decide. Is it too easy? Let’s hope not!
Friday’s Forecast: Toledo 31, Kansas 21
OPINION SELECTION ON TOLEDO -3.5
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