NCAAF Fades

[DIRK]

wow seems like college football most popular sport on this site

[griffey_mojo]

BB, are you gonna tally the NFL picks also?

[Blackbeard]

BB, are you gonna tally the NFL picks also?

I hadn't planned on it, I wasn't happy with how things turned out last year(or how things are going this year LOL) but they cant be any worse than Ncaa, I will try to get some out before 1:00

[Blackbeard]

Here's what I came up with, drawn from a few more newspapers and most of the same sites as ncaa +1 or 2.

Not counting these again(and not betting them myself)I have little confidence this time of the year:

Jax +1
Rams +3.5
Balt +3
KC +1
Det +6
Hou +6
NO +3

[Blackbeard]

thats a bummer, 5-2 and I didnt bet any of em

[Blackbeard]

Check this out:

Had you bet all the games yseterday and used the fade results(regardless of the differential), you would have gone 10-3!!

On top of that, if you flipped 2 of the losing games(the ones with 40 + picks out of the 54 I used) than were looking at 2 more w's - Cinn & Chi

Not sure if I'm making any sense, but for 2 nite, here are the numbers, do with them what you please, as I am lost and in a serious funk this past month

SD 41
Oak 13

Flip the fade for the 40+ picks(did this last year as well) and pick would be SD

the other game was the closest of the 15 games:

Vikes 26
Was 28

I always throw these close type games out

[griffey_mojo]

Thanks BB!

I like Oak to win tonight.

Am I crazy? Have I lost it?

[Blackbeard]

Thanks BB!

I like Oak to win tonight.

Am I crazy? Have I lost it?

its a tough one griff, Rivers is untested, but he has gates and tomlinson, cant say I even know who the qb is for oak without looking it up

[moondog22]

thanks BB

[Blackbeard]

i really like the results NFL had, hope its just not a week 1 fluke. It may be a good idea to post the picks for every game? you guys let me know.

I normally dont bet that many games, but Im having a hard time justifying 1 years worth of results, to narrow it down to 5 or so picks. tweaking this thing, might be a good idea, and I'll just bet less per game, I leave it up to you guys to determnie what you should bet(if anybody is betting these that is, after that awful ncaa start)

I was worried with the picks since I did not buy the NY daily news and did not have those 8 sets of picks, but I wont use them now, and will stick with the ones I used last week

NCAA, I hope turns around soon, 2-7-1 on opinions so far, I also noticed a few of those reverse fades with 40+ picks have been hitting, so If there are any I will put em out

[Doctor Z]

love the fades

I love the fades, thanks for doing the work. I don't quite get the reverse logic though, and havent lost with KC I'm interested in why you reverse anything over 40? Thanks again for doing this leg work!

[Blackbeard]

I love the fades, thanks for doing the work. I don't quite get the reverse logic though, and havent lost with KC I'm interested in why you reverse anything over 40? Thanks again for doing this leg work!

thanks dr z, I went over my notepads from last year, and I did not exactly do those reverses, it was mostly based on the actual spread Vs. the lines generated by the sagarin ratings(still cant use them, hopefully next week) - my notes say "take the opposite if the fav is favored by less than the sagarin ratings" - this was when I flipped it, how this will work this year is anybodies guess, and to be honest, that was a year ago, and I may have forgotten some other steps.

[bover1]

thanks dr z, I went over my notepads from last year, and I did not exactly do those reverses, it was mostly based on the actual spread Vs. the lines generated by the sagarin ratings(still cant use them, hopefully next week) - my notes say "take the opposite if the fav is favored by less than the sagarin ratings" - this was when I flipped it, how this will work this year is anybodies guess, and to be honest, that was a year ago, and I may have forgotten some other steps.

wow what rock did u crawl out from....

[Blackbeard]

Ncaa Fades Week 3

Here are the next wave of picks, still opinions. I have the NFL done except 1 or 2 sites didn't have their picks(Chicago sun times if anybody has them, Spark? only published 1 of the 5 sets of picks on website) will have NFL done by saturday night, will be at Jet game, so I need to get them done.
May have 1 more for late game, lets see how these go....

Record:

NCAAF Regular: 0-0
NCAAF Opinions: 2-7-1

NFL Regular: 0-0
NFL Opinions: 6-2
----------------------------

Michigan State +3
Notre Dame -4.5
Oklahoma +4.5
Louisville -4
LSU +3.5







Whats up bover buddy, took the week off from gambling

[Larry29]

Thanks for the post and I think things will turn around soon.

Good Luck today!