Tweet
College football not off to a great start, but that should correct itself over time as long as patience/money management/research are all accounted for. The sorry ass MAC got me pretty good, but anyway, here's what I'm playing for today.
NCAAF Sides (3-3-1, -3.36 units)
1* Baylor +6.5 (-101)
Also, 0.5 unit play on Baylor moneyline +225.
Really surprised this line is falling like it is, but I do think it's smart money coming in on the Bears here. Baylor showed some mettle last season, and certainly improved, which they will continue doing this season behind a veteran offense. The Bears bring back almost everybody on both the offensive and defensive lines, while TCU only has one starter from last year's strong offensive line, and the defense appears to be even weaker.
The Horned Frogs have failed to cover 8 of 9 as a road favorite (in two tries in that role last season, they lost 21-10as a 14.5 point at SMU and won 23-20 as a 6.5 point favorite at San Diego St.) and the lone cover was by a single point. I believe they come overvalued in this one because of last year's results and the belief that Baylor is in for another terrible season. Maybe they are, but I think there is significant value in both these plays.
Strong opinion on Louisville: Simply too much offensive firepower here, and the Cardinals are money when playing at the Pizza, having covered 11 of 12, and outscoring their opponents by an average of 40 ppg last season.
MONDAY
NCAAF Totals (2-1, +0.93 units)
1* Florida State team total under 18.5 (-108)
You know the drill here. In recent years, this series has been very low-scoring, and I don't think we see any difference here, especially with the rule changes that seem to be shortening games. I actually don't think either team gets to 20, but I think if the game goes over, it's because Miami scores 25-30. The Canes have the second best defense in the nation, and they should really not have much trouble keeping the Seminoles under this number.
NCAAF Sides (3-3-1, -3.36 units)
1* Baylor +6.5 (-101)
Also, 0.5 unit play on Baylor moneyline +225.
Really surprised this line is falling like it is, but I do think it's smart money coming in on the Bears here. Baylor showed some mettle last season, and certainly improved, which they will continue doing this season behind a veteran offense. The Bears bring back almost everybody on both the offensive and defensive lines, while TCU only has one starter from last year's strong offensive line, and the defense appears to be even weaker.
The Horned Frogs have failed to cover 8 of 9 as a road favorite (in two tries in that role last season, they lost 21-10as a 14.5 point at SMU and won 23-20 as a 6.5 point favorite at San Diego St.) and the lone cover was by a single point. I believe they come overvalued in this one because of last year's results and the belief that Baylor is in for another terrible season. Maybe they are, but I think there is significant value in both these plays.
Strong opinion on Louisville: Simply too much offensive firepower here, and the Cardinals are money when playing at the Pizza, having covered 11 of 12, and outscoring their opponents by an average of 40 ppg last season.
MONDAY
NCAAF Totals (2-1, +0.93 units)
1* Florida State team total under 18.5 (-108)
You know the drill here. In recent years, this series has been very low-scoring, and I don't think we see any difference here, especially with the rule changes that seem to be shortening games. I actually don't think either team gets to 20, but I think if the game goes over, it's because Miami scores 25-30. The Canes have the second best defense in the nation, and they should really not have much trouble keeping the Seminoles under this number.
Comment