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Spears 2006 College Football Season Picks
This will be a running thread- no good lucks need to be posted as it is all business now. Thanks for the thought- however. Please understand that this thread is a trial based on my perception which may or may not be reality. Hows that for a disclaimer!!!
WEEK 1
1)8/31
6:00P 325 Boston College
326 Central Michigan +12
2)8/31
6:30P 327 Eastern Michigan
328 Ball State -4.5
3)8/31
7:00P 329 Temple
330 Buffalo U-6
4)8/31
8:00P 337 South Carolina
338 Mississippi St +7-110 (BETUS)
5)9/2
12:00P 353 Vanderbilt
354 Michigan-26-110 BETUS
6)9/2
3:30P 357 Akron +17
358 Penn State 45u-105
7)9/2
3:30P 371 Louisiana Tech
372 Nebraska -20-106 PINNY
Under 48 5Dimes
8)9/2
5:30P 379 California
380 Tennessee U Under 43.5-105
9)9/2
6:00P 383 Western Michigan +7 Buy 1/2 point BETUS
384 Indiana
10)9/2
8:45P 401 USC
402 Arkansas +8
11)8:00P 419 Florida State
420 Miami Florida Under 40
12)10:15P 405 BYU
406 Arizona U -6.5
One dozen games to start off the season. 1200 invested. Bring em on Baby- I have been observing.
-----So -you are chomping at the bit- aren't ya- for football to return. I am as well. Though bases have been rewarding the last two seasons(over 24 units this season and 32 last season)- I can not wait to enjoy the games played in quaters not innings. These plays represent 1 unit=100. If these hit I will keep posting -if they falter- I will follow. That simple.
Why Spear dude these plays?---
Cappers are studying changes made during the off-season. One of the biggest changes doesn’t involve the player or team, but the length of the game itself.
Rule 3-2-5-e states “When Team A is awarded a first down, the clock will be stopped and will start on the ready for play signal.” This amendment means the clock will restart when the ball is ready after a punt or kickoff; the clock didn’t start in prior years until the ball was snapped.
In a typical game, each team has about
12 possessions. The new rule should come into play approximately 24 times and is estimated to shorten the game by five minutes. One obvious consequence of this new rule is that games will be lower scoring. If each team now only has 11 possessions instead of 12 (12 * 55 minutes / 60 minutes), you would expect scoring to be about 8% lower.
The average margin of victory will decrease.
A game spread is the sum of expected scoring in all possessions. In reasonably close match-ups (where the spread is 14 or less), you would expect the game to be slightly closer than in years past. A game lined at -14 in previous years might be -13 or -12.5 this year.
This effect won’t be as significant between unevenly matched teams.
For example, a game I decided not to play was-the Texas/North Texas match-up, where the Longhorns are 42 point favorites. In expected blowouts, the favorite typically plays its starters until up about 30 points (often in the first half) before putting on the second-string. While there’s still one fewer possession per team, many second-half possessions are routinely spent just chewing up the clock and have less effect on the total compared to possessions in close games.
Another more subtle result of the new clock rule is that more games will be won by exactly 3 and 7 points. If each team had exactly one possession, nearly all games would be decided by 3 or 7 points (or end in a tie). Each additional possession decreases the likelihood of landing on the 3 or 7.
In a two possession game, a team could also win by 6, 10 or 14. Conversely, reducing the length of the game by five minutes makes the 3 and 7 slightly more likely to occur.
Many books already under-price the 7, allowing you to buy onto and off of the 7 for 10 cents (instead of 14-15 cents, which is the “fair” value).
With the new rules, this type of point buying becomes even stronger –
These rule changes will provide the greatest opportunities for you--early in the season before the lines are fully corrected by oddsmakers. In addition to rule changes, understanding how teams have changed in the off-season can also reap generous profits.
All college teams experience a learning curve during the season. It’s common sense that the longer teammates play and practice together under a single system, the more consistent they’ll become. While bettors intuitively understand that low roster turnover will improve a team, many sports bettors underestimate the changes that occur during a season.
A team with only five returning starters does not play equally bad all season; instead they’ll often start poorly and improve throughout the season. Instead of viewing this team as “consistently bad” for the entire year, the opinion would be more precise to view this team as “very bad” during the first half of the season, and just “somewhat bad” as the team gains experience.
Similarly, teams with many returning starters have a pronounced early season advantage, but this diminishes later as the season progresses.
Also consider whether there’s been a coaching change. If there’s a new coach, the team tends to revert to the mean - winning teams will win less, and losing teams will lose less. On the other hand, a team with a returning head coach AND many returning starters should be on track for a solid season.
The following teams that return their head-coach and at least 20 starters should be poised to start 2006 on a high note:
1. Arizona
2. Ball State
3. Kent State
4. Mississippi St.
5. Ohio U.
6. TCU
7. Western Michigan
Compare those to these teams returning less than 10 starters:
1. Florida St.
2. Georgia
3. Kansas
4. Louisiana Tech
5. Miami-Ohio
6. Penn State
7. Temple
For the first weeks of the season, there may be opportunities to back the first seven teams and fade the second set. On September 16th, Miami-Ohio will play at Kent State. This game will present a unique betting opportunity when a team from each list plays and it’s doubtful the point spread will adequately adjust for the extreme difference in returning starters.
WEEK 1
1)8/31
6:00P 325 Boston College
326 Central Michigan +12
2)8/31
6:30P 327 Eastern Michigan
328 Ball State -4.5
3)8/31
7:00P 329 Temple
330 Buffalo U-6
4)8/31
8:00P 337 South Carolina
338 Mississippi St +7-110 (BETUS)
5)9/2
12:00P 353 Vanderbilt
354 Michigan-26-110 BETUS
6)9/2
3:30P 357 Akron +17
358 Penn State 45u-105
7)9/2
3:30P 371 Louisiana Tech
372 Nebraska -20-106 PINNY
Under 48 5Dimes
8)9/2
5:30P 379 California
380 Tennessee U Under 43.5-105
9)9/2
6:00P 383 Western Michigan +7 Buy 1/2 point BETUS
384 Indiana
10)9/2
8:45P 401 USC
402 Arkansas +8
11)8:00P 419 Florida State
420 Miami Florida Under 40
12)10:15P 405 BYU
406 Arizona U -6.5
One dozen games to start off the season. 1200 invested. Bring em on Baby- I have been observing.
-----So -you are chomping at the bit- aren't ya- for football to return. I am as well. Though bases have been rewarding the last two seasons(over 24 units this season and 32 last season)- I can not wait to enjoy the games played in quaters not innings. These plays represent 1 unit=100. If these hit I will keep posting -if they falter- I will follow. That simple.
Why Spear dude these plays?---
Cappers are studying changes made during the off-season. One of the biggest changes doesn’t involve the player or team, but the length of the game itself.
Rule 3-2-5-e states “When Team A is awarded a first down, the clock will be stopped and will start on the ready for play signal.” This amendment means the clock will restart when the ball is ready after a punt or kickoff; the clock didn’t start in prior years until the ball was snapped.
In a typical game, each team has about
12 possessions. The new rule should come into play approximately 24 times and is estimated to shorten the game by five minutes. One obvious consequence of this new rule is that games will be lower scoring. If each team now only has 11 possessions instead of 12 (12 * 55 minutes / 60 minutes), you would expect scoring to be about 8% lower.
The average margin of victory will decrease.
A game spread is the sum of expected scoring in all possessions. In reasonably close match-ups (where the spread is 14 or less), you would expect the game to be slightly closer than in years past. A game lined at -14 in previous years might be -13 or -12.5 this year.
This effect won’t be as significant between unevenly matched teams.
For example, a game I decided not to play was-the Texas/North Texas match-up, where the Longhorns are 42 point favorites. In expected blowouts, the favorite typically plays its starters until up about 30 points (often in the first half) before putting on the second-string. While there’s still one fewer possession per team, many second-half possessions are routinely spent just chewing up the clock and have less effect on the total compared to possessions in close games.
Another more subtle result of the new clock rule is that more games will be won by exactly 3 and 7 points. If each team had exactly one possession, nearly all games would be decided by 3 or 7 points (or end in a tie). Each additional possession decreases the likelihood of landing on the 3 or 7.
In a two possession game, a team could also win by 6, 10 or 14. Conversely, reducing the length of the game by five minutes makes the 3 and 7 slightly more likely to occur.
Many books already under-price the 7, allowing you to buy onto and off of the 7 for 10 cents (instead of 14-15 cents, which is the “fair” value).
With the new rules, this type of point buying becomes even stronger –
These rule changes will provide the greatest opportunities for you--early in the season before the lines are fully corrected by oddsmakers. In addition to rule changes, understanding how teams have changed in the off-season can also reap generous profits.
All college teams experience a learning curve during the season. It’s common sense that the longer teammates play and practice together under a single system, the more consistent they’ll become. While bettors intuitively understand that low roster turnover will improve a team, many sports bettors underestimate the changes that occur during a season.
A team with only five returning starters does not play equally bad all season; instead they’ll often start poorly and improve throughout the season. Instead of viewing this team as “consistently bad” for the entire year, the opinion would be more precise to view this team as “very bad” during the first half of the season, and just “somewhat bad” as the team gains experience.
Similarly, teams with many returning starters have a pronounced early season advantage, but this diminishes later as the season progresses.
Also consider whether there’s been a coaching change. If there’s a new coach, the team tends to revert to the mean - winning teams will win less, and losing teams will lose less. On the other hand, a team with a returning head coach AND many returning starters should be on track for a solid season.
The following teams that return their head-coach and at least 20 starters should be poised to start 2006 on a high note:
1. Arizona
2. Ball State
3. Kent State
4. Mississippi St.
5. Ohio U.
6. TCU
7. Western Michigan
Compare those to these teams returning less than 10 starters:
1. Florida St.
2. Georgia
3. Kansas
4. Louisiana Tech
5. Miami-Ohio
6. Penn State
7. Temple
For the first weeks of the season, there may be opportunities to back the first seven teams and fade the second set. On September 16th, Miami-Ohio will play at Kent State. This game will present a unique betting opportunity when a team from each list plays and it’s doubtful the point spread will adequately adjust for the extreme difference in returning starters.
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