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Alright, I've gone ahead and played some games for this weekend. My plays will be rated 1*-5*, and early in the season, I will be keeping everything small.
Thursday, 8/31
2* Kent State +15.5 (-102) vs. Minnesota
Just a cursory glance at these programs’ recent results might lead one to believe this line is justified. I’m not of that opinion, however, as these teams are headed in opposite directions.
Kent State returns 9 starters on both offense and defense from a team that wildly underachieved last season. I am expecting a marked improvement from the Golden Flashes this season, as they have switched to a more basic offense after experimenting with a Mike Leach-style offense last year. Regardless, having an experienced team, especially at the skill positions, is always an advantage in the early games.
Minnesota is a relatively experienced team, with 6 starters returning on both sides of the ball. But, they lost their two very good running backs (Maroney to NFL, Russell because of probation), who combined for 2600 yards last season. Instead, the Gophers will have Amir Pinnix and Brylee Callender in the backfield. While I’m sure they will fill in fairly well over time, I don’t think they can replace the numbers of last year, and the pressure will be doubled on Bryan Cupito, who has been inconsistent in his time at Minnesota.
This is the biggest home game Kent has had since, well, ever. No Big 10 team has ever played there, and the Golden Flashes should keep this one within single digits and have at least a chance to pull the outright upset.
1* Buffalo -6 (-109) vs. Temple
Laying points with the 10th worst team in the nation can be easily frowned upon, but I believe it is worth the small number here. Temple is by far the worst team in the country, and is likely heading for another winless season if they don’t win this game.
The Owls only return six starters and half the total roster from a team that was 0-11 last season. They played four MAC teams last season, and lost 172-54. Only one of those games was on the road, and they lost that one by 63.
I’m looking for Turner Gill to start his coaching career at Buffalo with a rousing victory.
Friday, 9/1
1* Nevada +11.5 (-101) @ Fresno St.
Both these teams have 14 returning starters, and I really don’t see a lot of difference in the two teams here. Fresno actually lost a lot at the offensive skill positions – their leading returning rusher had 83 yards last season, and new quarterback Brandstater had only 13 pass attempts.
Pat Hill has a history of ignoring conference games, and that could come into play again here, as Oregon and Washington State are up next for Fresno. Meanwhile, Nevada will be completely ready for this game, and their “Pistol” offense gave the Bulldogs a lot of trouble in last year’s upset win. I’m not calling for a repeat upset, but I do think this one goes down to the wire.
Saturday, 9/2
2* Arizona -6.5 (-115) vs. BYU
Here’s my darkhorse pick to win the Pac-10. You may think that’s a bit of a stretch, but the Wildcats get home games against Cal, USC, and Arizona St., and they have one of the best defenses and little known coaches in the game. Zona also has 17 returning starters, including QB Tuitama, who is already a very special player, and he could blossom into a national star this season.
The Wildcats face a very weak defense, as BYU only returns four starters from a defense that already wasn’t very good. The Cougars will score a lot of points this year, but they will find the going much easier against the San Diego St.’s and UNLV’s of the world than Mike Stoops’ stacked defense.
I’ll take the strong defense and good offense over the terrible defense and strong offense every time. I’m expecting a double digit win from the Wildcats in this one.
1* Akron +16.5 (-102) @ Penn St.
The Zips have one of the best QBs in the nation in Getsy, and, despite losing running back Biggs, they return 17 total starters from a team that won the MAC championship. Most importantly, they have almost everyone on the line back from last year.
Penn St. is not an elite program right now. Last season was the exception, not the rule. Since 2000, the Lions have only had two winning seasons, and I sort of think that number is two at the end of this season, as they return only 9 starters from last season. The Nits return their three best receivers from last season, but the real question is who will get them the ball? Anthony Morelli is expected to start, but reports have been mostly negative on that front, and he will have a very questionable offensive line in front of him. That should also slow down running back Hunt.
I really don’t think the oddsmakers have reacted strongly enough to the rule changes overall, and as a result, I am playing a couple unders. All four of these teams are run-based, and the strength of their defense is stopping the run.
1* California @ Tennessee Under 44 (-108)
1* UAB @ Oklahoma Under 42 (-105)
That's it for now, though I plan on adding one or two.
Thursday, 8/31
2* Kent State +15.5 (-102) vs. Minnesota
Just a cursory glance at these programs’ recent results might lead one to believe this line is justified. I’m not of that opinion, however, as these teams are headed in opposite directions.
Kent State returns 9 starters on both offense and defense from a team that wildly underachieved last season. I am expecting a marked improvement from the Golden Flashes this season, as they have switched to a more basic offense after experimenting with a Mike Leach-style offense last year. Regardless, having an experienced team, especially at the skill positions, is always an advantage in the early games.
Minnesota is a relatively experienced team, with 6 starters returning on both sides of the ball. But, they lost their two very good running backs (Maroney to NFL, Russell because of probation), who combined for 2600 yards last season. Instead, the Gophers will have Amir Pinnix and Brylee Callender in the backfield. While I’m sure they will fill in fairly well over time, I don’t think they can replace the numbers of last year, and the pressure will be doubled on Bryan Cupito, who has been inconsistent in his time at Minnesota.
This is the biggest home game Kent has had since, well, ever. No Big 10 team has ever played there, and the Golden Flashes should keep this one within single digits and have at least a chance to pull the outright upset.
1* Buffalo -6 (-109) vs. Temple
Laying points with the 10th worst team in the nation can be easily frowned upon, but I believe it is worth the small number here. Temple is by far the worst team in the country, and is likely heading for another winless season if they don’t win this game.
The Owls only return six starters and half the total roster from a team that was 0-11 last season. They played four MAC teams last season, and lost 172-54. Only one of those games was on the road, and they lost that one by 63.
I’m looking for Turner Gill to start his coaching career at Buffalo with a rousing victory.
Friday, 9/1
1* Nevada +11.5 (-101) @ Fresno St.
Both these teams have 14 returning starters, and I really don’t see a lot of difference in the two teams here. Fresno actually lost a lot at the offensive skill positions – their leading returning rusher had 83 yards last season, and new quarterback Brandstater had only 13 pass attempts.
Pat Hill has a history of ignoring conference games, and that could come into play again here, as Oregon and Washington State are up next for Fresno. Meanwhile, Nevada will be completely ready for this game, and their “Pistol” offense gave the Bulldogs a lot of trouble in last year’s upset win. I’m not calling for a repeat upset, but I do think this one goes down to the wire.
Saturday, 9/2
2* Arizona -6.5 (-115) vs. BYU
Here’s my darkhorse pick to win the Pac-10. You may think that’s a bit of a stretch, but the Wildcats get home games against Cal, USC, and Arizona St., and they have one of the best defenses and little known coaches in the game. Zona also has 17 returning starters, including QB Tuitama, who is already a very special player, and he could blossom into a national star this season.
The Wildcats face a very weak defense, as BYU only returns four starters from a defense that already wasn’t very good. The Cougars will score a lot of points this year, but they will find the going much easier against the San Diego St.’s and UNLV’s of the world than Mike Stoops’ stacked defense.
I’ll take the strong defense and good offense over the terrible defense and strong offense every time. I’m expecting a double digit win from the Wildcats in this one.
1* Akron +16.5 (-102) @ Penn St.
The Zips have one of the best QBs in the nation in Getsy, and, despite losing running back Biggs, they return 17 total starters from a team that won the MAC championship. Most importantly, they have almost everyone on the line back from last year.
Penn St. is not an elite program right now. Last season was the exception, not the rule. Since 2000, the Lions have only had two winning seasons, and I sort of think that number is two at the end of this season, as they return only 9 starters from last season. The Nits return their three best receivers from last season, but the real question is who will get them the ball? Anthony Morelli is expected to start, but reports have been mostly negative on that front, and he will have a very questionable offensive line in front of him. That should also slow down running back Hunt.
I really don’t think the oddsmakers have reacted strongly enough to the rule changes overall, and as a result, I am playing a couple unders. All four of these teams are run-based, and the strength of their defense is stopping the run.
1* California @ Tennessee Under 44 (-108)
1* UAB @ Oklahoma Under 42 (-105)
That's it for now, though I plan on adding one or two.
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