Seasoned Cappers - Do long term trends exist?

[MikeS]

Curious to get some thoughts from Frank/Wayne/anyone else who wants to chime in - I saw a post the other day from someone asking about NFL Home Dogs < 3.5 points or something like that. It got me thinking:

For ATS sports like basketball and football, do you feel long term trends exist, or does everything revert back toward .500 eventually?

[Spearit]

In my opinion- for what it is worth- I have paid for the the trends of yesteryear and have come to the conclusion that trends are to broad to base your decisions solely upon them. Systems are trends that are particular to the game being played on the field- so they are more particular in the teams and their starters. What great cappers do is to look at the game and determine if certain conditions are met then it is likely the situation will come out similar.

For instance- lets use dog racing- when a certain dog is in the early boxes it gets jammed on the first turn more times than not. But if the conditions are right and he runs well from the outside--in the number 8 box (and popcorn is in the air) - he slides in underneath the faster dogs and comes from behind to win. This system has been 12-2.

Now applying that to football is a little more complex- I mean where are you gonna find popcorn at a football game.

Hope that helps!

[MikeS]

Thanks spearit - appreciate the input. Just seems to me like these games are more or less a coin flip. You can do enough analysis to get yourself to the 52.4% you need to break even and make a few bucks, but that in general if you see a trend the odds (or I should say the law of averages) says that it won't hold. Was curious what the guys who've been around think.

[MikeS]

Seasoned Cappers - Long Term Trends (Frank/Wayne?)

Sending this back to the top - hoping Wayne or Frank or both can offer their experience...thanks

[CheechB03]

I'm a firm believe in long-term league wide systems/trends. I don't follow short-term systems. I also don't adhere to team trends. Teams and team personal changes. My football database dates back to 1989. Some long-term trends remain constant. I look for any edge the Vegas linemaker gives me.

Playing the dogs in the NFL gives a sport bettor an slight edge. Since 1989 dogs and the UNDER have covered 51.1% of the games. Dogs have done well 5 of the past 7 seasons. Dogs have had a losing season only 5 of the past 17 years.

I don't believe all systems/trends return to 50%. If they did it'll take some systems years of losing to return to 50% There's some constants in football. Good rushing. Good defense. These teams as a dog year in and year out have done well. Even last season where the favorite covered 58% good rushing/defense dogs broke even.

[MikeS]

Great examples Cheech. I have an NBA hoops database to 1998 and see many long term trends. A small example, about 10 times a year, is: Home Dogs of 10+ pts are 51-34 (60%) over the the eight seasons. Sounds like it might be a good long term bet but am curious if others have looked at trends across many years and how they've worked out.

[CheechB03]

I like long-term systems with lots of activity.

My NBA database dates back to 1995. I have some systems that have been active over 250 times or about 25 times each season. Over that period of time these systems are 58%-60% It'll take a long losing streak to return to 50%

I don't like 15-2, 9-1 type of systems. A short losing streak will bring the system back to 50%

The systems I use meet 3 criteria. First, 58% or better long-term with lots of action. Active about 100 times in the NFL and 150 in the NBA. Second, good results the last 3-5 years. Finally, still winning of the past season and current season. Some systems become stale. I'll pass on those until they rebound.

[MikeS]

Thanks Cheech - that is great information