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Weird day, as I see value everywhere I look on Friday’s card. So, I am taking today off, and tomorrow is “make or break” day.
Baseball Plays (+3.90 units)
1* Pirates (Snell) @ Reds (Michalak) Under 10 (+106)
I don’t really know much about Michalak, other than he has pitched 6.2 innings, and given up 3 hits and 1 run in his lone appearance. That’s nice, but more importantly he is left-handed, so he should have some success against a Pirates lineup that is only scoring 3.8 rpg against LHSP, and hasn’t scored more than three runs their last five tries against a lefty.
The Reds aren’t exactly crushing righties (4.5 rpg), and they face a good one in Snell, who has been fabulous on the road all season. He’s 5-2 with a 3.68 ERA away from home, and even though this is a home run haven, he has only given up 3 in 11 road starts this season.
The Pirates have gone under 12 of 15, and the Reds have gone under 3 in a row.
Very Small Unrated Play: Pirates +121
1* Yankees (Wang) @ Red Sox (Johnson) Over 11 (-111)
I think this series gets started off with a bang, as both teams should put up strong numbers against these pitchers and bullpens.
Wang has been often untouchable at home, but in two starts at Fenway this season, the Red Sox have scored 9 and 7 runs, 10 of which came against Wang in only 11 IP. In fact, Chow Mein isn’t so great on the road (5.25 ERA) and he has been pretty lousy his last two starts (10.1 IP, 20 hits, 4 walks, 9 ER). I don’t see any reason that will change against a Boston lineup that is murdering righties (5.8 rpg), especially in home games.
And, as I’ve said the last two times Johnson pitched – cashing over tickets both times – the Red Sox know they have to score a lot of runs to have a chance because they are going to give up plenty. They won his last start 8-7, which ended a string of 8 losses by the Indians/Red Sox in Johnson’s starts. He is 1-6 with a 6.94 ERA at home, 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA last five, and 3-11 with a 6.26 for the year. He can’t pitch deep in games, and the bullpen isn’t really much of a match for the Yankees lineup either.
7 of 9 have gone over in this series, and I think that will continue in Game 1 of the doubleheader.
1* Indians (Sabbathia) @ Devil Rays (Fossum) Under 9 (+106)
This one is pretty simple. Sabbathia has been dominant on the road, and Fossum has been very good at home. Neither team hits lefties particularly well, and both teams bullpens should be ready to go, as Byrd pitched a complete game for the Indians today, and Kazmir should eat up some innings tonight.
Fossum is 4-2 with a 1.2 WHIP and 3.31 ERA at the Trop, and in his last two home starts, he gave up no earned runs. I expect the success to continue against an Indians team that hits only .257 against lefties, and scores 4.6 rpg against LHSP.
Sabbathia’s road numbers are sterling, and he is in fine form. His last two road starts – at Detroit and Boston – he gave up a total of 1 earned run. For the year, his ERA is 3.30 and on the road it is 2.38.
Cleveland is working on three consecutive unders, and pending tonight’s result, Tampa has gone under 5 of 6.
Small Personal Plays (1/5th the size of the above plays):
Astros (Backe) @ Brewers (Ohka) Under 9 (+111)
Red Sox in Game 1 if I can get better than +130
Red Sox (Lester) -109 vs. Yankees (Ponson)
Baseball Plays (+3.90 units)
1* Pirates (Snell) @ Reds (Michalak) Under 10 (+106)
I don’t really know much about Michalak, other than he has pitched 6.2 innings, and given up 3 hits and 1 run in his lone appearance. That’s nice, but more importantly he is left-handed, so he should have some success against a Pirates lineup that is only scoring 3.8 rpg against LHSP, and hasn’t scored more than three runs their last five tries against a lefty.
The Reds aren’t exactly crushing righties (4.5 rpg), and they face a good one in Snell, who has been fabulous on the road all season. He’s 5-2 with a 3.68 ERA away from home, and even though this is a home run haven, he has only given up 3 in 11 road starts this season.
The Pirates have gone under 12 of 15, and the Reds have gone under 3 in a row.
Very Small Unrated Play: Pirates +121
1* Yankees (Wang) @ Red Sox (Johnson) Over 11 (-111)
I think this series gets started off with a bang, as both teams should put up strong numbers against these pitchers and bullpens.
Wang has been often untouchable at home, but in two starts at Fenway this season, the Red Sox have scored 9 and 7 runs, 10 of which came against Wang in only 11 IP. In fact, Chow Mein isn’t so great on the road (5.25 ERA) and he has been pretty lousy his last two starts (10.1 IP, 20 hits, 4 walks, 9 ER). I don’t see any reason that will change against a Boston lineup that is murdering righties (5.8 rpg), especially in home games.
And, as I’ve said the last two times Johnson pitched – cashing over tickets both times – the Red Sox know they have to score a lot of runs to have a chance because they are going to give up plenty. They won his last start 8-7, which ended a string of 8 losses by the Indians/Red Sox in Johnson’s starts. He is 1-6 with a 6.94 ERA at home, 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA last five, and 3-11 with a 6.26 for the year. He can’t pitch deep in games, and the bullpen isn’t really much of a match for the Yankees lineup either.
7 of 9 have gone over in this series, and I think that will continue in Game 1 of the doubleheader.
1* Indians (Sabbathia) @ Devil Rays (Fossum) Under 9 (+106)
This one is pretty simple. Sabbathia has been dominant on the road, and Fossum has been very good at home. Neither team hits lefties particularly well, and both teams bullpens should be ready to go, as Byrd pitched a complete game for the Indians today, and Kazmir should eat up some innings tonight.
Fossum is 4-2 with a 1.2 WHIP and 3.31 ERA at the Trop, and in his last two home starts, he gave up no earned runs. I expect the success to continue against an Indians team that hits only .257 against lefties, and scores 4.6 rpg against LHSP.
Sabbathia’s road numbers are sterling, and he is in fine form. His last two road starts – at Detroit and Boston – he gave up a total of 1 earned run. For the year, his ERA is 3.30 and on the road it is 2.38.
Cleveland is working on three consecutive unders, and pending tonight’s result, Tampa has gone under 5 of 6.
Small Personal Plays (1/5th the size of the above plays):
Astros (Backe) @ Brewers (Ohka) Under 9 (+111)
Red Sox in Game 1 if I can get better than +130
Red Sox (Lester) -109 vs. Yankees (Ponson)
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