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Spears Thurs NFL (Indy/St. Louis)
A pleasure getting back to pigskin. Wanting to get these plays out early to ya. At the bottom is a decent writeup of what to expect in this game and team info. I am occasionally making plays on Bases now but I have made money on it again this year and I looked back a year ago and this is when I took off for a month. Football is back and this game should be a "goot um" E. James is gone.
St. Louis Rams -3
This total was -2.5 on my book prior.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in INDIANAPOLIS games 87.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-1)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ST LOUIS games 75% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (3-1)
Edge=ST LOUIS
St. Louis Rams/Indy Over 38.5
This total has dropped from 40 already so wait for the tide change to get even better value.
Dungy is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games in August games as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.0, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Lets see how the public has done on making changes to the line.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in INDIANAPOLIS games 42.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (3-4)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ST LOUIS games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (3-3)
No advantage
Additional support of Over
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in road games since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.9, OPPONENT 22.4 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in road lined games since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.9, OPPONENT 22.4 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.7, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 0*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-4 OVER (+15.6 Units) in road games in August games since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 20.2, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 3*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) as an underdog since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.3, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 0*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) as a road underdog since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.1, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.6, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS: Sometimes the best team in the NFL simply doesn’t win the Super Bowl. That is what the Colts are telling themselves now as they embark on another shot at reaching their elusive goal. Quite simply, the opportunity was never greater than it was in 2005 for QB Peyton Manning and Co., as they won their first 13 games of the season and appeared invincible at that point.
Things turned though, first off the field, then on, and the team that eventually lost to Pittsburgh in the playoffs was nothing like the one that went 13-0 SU & 9-3-1 ATS to start the season.
Most experts will point to the Dungy family tragedy as triggering the demise, and they are probably right, but truthfully, a team of stronger mettle would have come together stronger, not unraveled.
It almost seemed at times as if Indianapolis was waiting for a reason to fail, not surprising for a team that has experienced as much past disappointment as this one has. They will head into 2006 minus RB Edgerrin James and some confidence, but the goal remains the same, Super Bowl or bust.
The James loss will probably turn out to be bigger on paper than it will on the field. He obviously produced some big numbers for this franchise during his stay, but his role in this offense was probably not worth the contract figures it would have required to keep him. It is expected that James will be replaced by top draft pick RB Joseph Addai of LSU, and backup Dominic Rhodes.
Running the football here has proven circumstantial, and the league’s 2nd best points and 3rd best yards producing offense will adapt. The Colts were able to keep WR Reggie Wayne and grabbed K Adam Vinatieri when Mike Vanderjagt jetisoned.
The bigger losses may have been endured on the defensive side of the ball where DT Larry Triplett and LB David Thornton have left for greener pastures. That unit made huge strides from 2004 to 2005, improving by 6.5 PPG & 63.7 YPG. In fact, they yielded the 2nd fewest points in the NFL.
It would have been easy to overreact in the wake of the playoff meltdown against Pittsburgh, but the Colts were wise enough to understand just how close they were to the pinnacle in 2005.
You still have to be concerned about the psyche of a team that may start believing it CAN’T win after everything that happened last year. Manning may be in the twilight of his prime, and these are precious seasons to waste. It could be now or never for Indy in 2006.
ST LOUIS: It might be time for fans of the Rams to come to grips with the fact that their run of the early decade is over. Though the team has toiled in mediocrity for each of the last two seasons, the replacement of HC Mike Martz may have been the official signal. Scott Linehan, another offensive minded coach takes over for Martz, but the truth is, the days of “The Greatest Show on Turf” have passed.
In fact, if you look purely at the stats, the offensive numbers produced over the past two seasons pale in comparison to prior years. QB Marc Bulger has proven he is no Kurt Warner, and RB Stephen Jackson is no Marshall Faulk. While both have proven serviceable, the offense as a whole no longer strikes fear into opposing defenses.
On the other side of the ball, the deterioration of former DC Lovie Smith’s unit is almost complete as well. In almost all respects, this is a team in need of a rebuild. Considering that St. Louis lost to lowly San Francisco twice during the 6-10 2005 campaign, and is just 12-22 ATS over the last two seasons, Linehan’s task looms even larger.
Most of the offensive unit is encouraged by what Linehan brings to the table. The new coach made a name for himself as offensive coordinator for the Dolphins and Vikings.
Bulger has even mentioned that the new pass-first offense is much simpler and straightforward than the previous schemes. That should be the only recognizable change on that side of the ball, as the few offensive free agents and draft picks added figure to assume secondary roles. On defense though, you may need a new game program.
There are mass changes affecting that 30th ranked unit in 2006. Out are DT’s Ryan Pickett and Damione Lewis, and S Adam Archuleta, while signing on are DT La’Roi Glover of Dallas, LB Will Witherspoon of Carolina, and former Minnesota teammates LB Raonall Smith and S Corey Chavous. Rounds 1-4 in the draft also landed the Rams four other potential defensive contributors.
To quote Bruce Springsteen, “Glory Days, will pass you by, Glory Days”. Mike Martz applied yearly patches to maintain some of the success achieved under Vermeill, but it’s evident that plan has run its course.
This is a franchise in transition now. Linehan has some tools to work with on offense, but the defense is officially starting over. Look for St. Louis to take some lumps early but improve enough to potentially spoil for some contenders in the second half of 2006.
St. Louis Rams -3
This total was -2.5 on my book prior.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in INDIANAPOLIS games 87.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-1)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ST LOUIS games 75% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (3-1)
Edge=ST LOUIS
St. Louis Rams/Indy Over 38.5
This total has dropped from 40 already so wait for the tide change to get even better value.
Dungy is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games in August games as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.0, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Lets see how the public has done on making changes to the line.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in INDIANAPOLIS games 42.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (3-4)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ST LOUIS games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (3-3)
No advantage
Additional support of Over
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in road games since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.9, OPPONENT 22.4 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in road lined games since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.9, OPPONENT 22.4 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.7, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 0*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-4 OVER (+15.6 Units) in road games in August games since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 20.2, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 3*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) as an underdog since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.3, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 0*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) as a road underdog since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.1, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.6, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS: Sometimes the best team in the NFL simply doesn’t win the Super Bowl. That is what the Colts are telling themselves now as they embark on another shot at reaching their elusive goal. Quite simply, the opportunity was never greater than it was in 2005 for QB Peyton Manning and Co., as they won their first 13 games of the season and appeared invincible at that point.
Things turned though, first off the field, then on, and the team that eventually lost to Pittsburgh in the playoffs was nothing like the one that went 13-0 SU & 9-3-1 ATS to start the season.
Most experts will point to the Dungy family tragedy as triggering the demise, and they are probably right, but truthfully, a team of stronger mettle would have come together stronger, not unraveled.
It almost seemed at times as if Indianapolis was waiting for a reason to fail, not surprising for a team that has experienced as much past disappointment as this one has. They will head into 2006 minus RB Edgerrin James and some confidence, but the goal remains the same, Super Bowl or bust.
The James loss will probably turn out to be bigger on paper than it will on the field. He obviously produced some big numbers for this franchise during his stay, but his role in this offense was probably not worth the contract figures it would have required to keep him. It is expected that James will be replaced by top draft pick RB Joseph Addai of LSU, and backup Dominic Rhodes.
Running the football here has proven circumstantial, and the league’s 2nd best points and 3rd best yards producing offense will adapt. The Colts were able to keep WR Reggie Wayne and grabbed K Adam Vinatieri when Mike Vanderjagt jetisoned.
The bigger losses may have been endured on the defensive side of the ball where DT Larry Triplett and LB David Thornton have left for greener pastures. That unit made huge strides from 2004 to 2005, improving by 6.5 PPG & 63.7 YPG. In fact, they yielded the 2nd fewest points in the NFL.
It would have been easy to overreact in the wake of the playoff meltdown against Pittsburgh, but the Colts were wise enough to understand just how close they were to the pinnacle in 2005.
You still have to be concerned about the psyche of a team that may start believing it CAN’T win after everything that happened last year. Manning may be in the twilight of his prime, and these are precious seasons to waste. It could be now or never for Indy in 2006.
ST LOUIS: It might be time for fans of the Rams to come to grips with the fact that their run of the early decade is over. Though the team has toiled in mediocrity for each of the last two seasons, the replacement of HC Mike Martz may have been the official signal. Scott Linehan, another offensive minded coach takes over for Martz, but the truth is, the days of “The Greatest Show on Turf” have passed.
In fact, if you look purely at the stats, the offensive numbers produced over the past two seasons pale in comparison to prior years. QB Marc Bulger has proven he is no Kurt Warner, and RB Stephen Jackson is no Marshall Faulk. While both have proven serviceable, the offense as a whole no longer strikes fear into opposing defenses.
On the other side of the ball, the deterioration of former DC Lovie Smith’s unit is almost complete as well. In almost all respects, this is a team in need of a rebuild. Considering that St. Louis lost to lowly San Francisco twice during the 6-10 2005 campaign, and is just 12-22 ATS over the last two seasons, Linehan’s task looms even larger.
Most of the offensive unit is encouraged by what Linehan brings to the table. The new coach made a name for himself as offensive coordinator for the Dolphins and Vikings.
Bulger has even mentioned that the new pass-first offense is much simpler and straightforward than the previous schemes. That should be the only recognizable change on that side of the ball, as the few offensive free agents and draft picks added figure to assume secondary roles. On defense though, you may need a new game program.
There are mass changes affecting that 30th ranked unit in 2006. Out are DT’s Ryan Pickett and Damione Lewis, and S Adam Archuleta, while signing on are DT La’Roi Glover of Dallas, LB Will Witherspoon of Carolina, and former Minnesota teammates LB Raonall Smith and S Corey Chavous. Rounds 1-4 in the draft also landed the Rams four other potential defensive contributors.
To quote Bruce Springsteen, “Glory Days, will pass you by, Glory Days”. Mike Martz applied yearly patches to maintain some of the success achieved under Vermeill, but it’s evident that plan has run its course.
This is a franchise in transition now. Linehan has some tools to work with on offense, but the defense is officially starting over. Look for St. Louis to take some lumps early but improve enough to potentially spoil for some contenders in the second half of 2006.
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