Kaptains "MeatLoaf LeftOvers" for Friday

[Kaptain]

went 2-2 yesterday, and managed to hit yet another 10* play....8 or 9 in a row.......I'm not counting, just remembering....lets see if we can continue till our bubble for this run bursts.....kapt

Florida...............+1 1/2...........-146...........3*
Giants...............-1.................-126............10*
Washington........ML................-102........2*
Oakland.............ML................-104............10*

gl to all----lock and load........

here are some leans
Mets/Braves > 8 1/2 -106
Mets -143
Padres +101
Tigers/Twins > 7 1/2 -118
KC + 1 1/2 +101

See you all tomorrow----kapt, until then, for a select few (LSU-Spark-Wayne-Monte) , all else .....know what I mean Verne

[longnex]

good luck

[jcindaville]

Good luck Karl

[BigWeiner]

Good luck Kapt

[TheRook]

good luck young man

[govjim]

Kap...stay hot with them 10*'s!!!!!

The Giants are 7-0 when Jason Schmidt starts on the road when the Giants lost their last three games.

[TMess]

gl kapt!

[THENDY]

KAPTAIN i see som of the PLAYERS like the +1- runs in some games. you just feel these games wil be close and arent necessary sold on the outright winner. ? just curious.....good luck on the 10 stars....nice run for u

[BettorsChat]

gl Kapt

[Lsufan]

Good Luck Kapt.

[Kaptain]

Theendy

KAPTAIN i see som of the PLAYERS like the +1- runs in some games. you just feel these games wil be close and arent necessary sold on the outright winner. ? just curious.....good luck on the 10 stars....nice run for u

They are utilized for lower juice (vig) figures..........

i,e, SF Giants ML -152..........RL-1 -120.........

I feel the Giants will win by at leat one.........If they win by just 1, then I push........contrastly, if they lose, I save on Vig.......

I would have to feel that they would win by a 2 or more margin to take RL - 1 1/2 @ +111........

But the simplest way to explain it to you, is the Formula I use dictates Giants as approximately 1 1/2 runs better, and you and I both know, we can't score a 1/2 run, I can't move the spread, but I can move the line by adjusting to RL-1........

Now lets look at Florida......My formula shows Fla equal to the Phillies, with todays line up.......Note----I said equal to.......So me betting Fla +146 is not in my method, but taking 1 1/2 runs, at -146 is......I also like the Idea that the visiting team is getting 1 1/2 runs, thus assuring me of a full 9 innings at bat......and if the Home team (Phillies) happen to be winning by 1, then they don't bat, and I win..

Conversely, this is why I don't take a home team - 1 1/2 runs...In case of Tie going into bottom of 9th, Golden run applies, and if they get ahead by 1, game is over.....If home team is winning by 1 after the top of the 9th, they don't bat, losing 11 % of their scoring potential, and the game is over......

I'm not too sure, but I think about 25-28 % of the games were decided by 1 run........I can't control it on the field, so I try and control it on paper.......Trying to get every edge I can.......It does result in some pushes thjough, which is fine with me, it's not a loss......

Strictly a formulated, "K" factor method, utilizing, Dunkel, vs Odds, ML, RL + or -1, RL + or - 1 1/2, Home or Visiting, and the amt of the formulated difference from the actual line, denotes the amount, strength (star rating) of the play......

If you'll ever compare, My plays aren't always in agreeance with Dunkel as others have suggested......Often times, totaly opposite........I utilize Dunkels strength formula, as one of my factors........I hope this helps explain why the -1, and +1, comes into effect........

NOTE----I've been doing this 11 years now, and the first 9 were without the extra added values afforded by the + or - 1 RL..........Had 8 winning seasons, 1 losing, and of the 8 winning seasons, 5 were up a lot of units........

You know what we've done here in the last 2 years, is we're up a lot of units..........I think we were up about 150 units at the 1/2 way mark.......I haven't updated recently, but we started the second 1/2 slow, as always, and it seems to now have kicked in.........Good days, bad days, but if you stay with what the formula gives ya, at years end, you'll be ahead.........

PS----ONLY the Kapt---Neil---and Cheech(FrankB) know this complex "K" factor formula.............I'm sure others can pick as well as us wihout it, it's just my method of capping.........

I use a similar one, much more complex for FootBall (NCAA), it has never fared well in the NFL..........

[SACPAC]

Emmmm Some More Tastee Leftover's...good Luck Kapt.

[Spark]

Good Luck YOF ... Lets get them