TP's Pre-season NCAAF Plays

[Tomorrows Paper]

Instead of keeping record in units during college football season, I'm just going to post the dollar amount - it makes it easier for me because of the various amounts wagered.
During football season, I have active accounts at Pinny, 5Dimes, Olympic, and one more - last year it was Cris, but I think I will replace them with someone else this season. Line shopping is so undescribably important, in my opinion. Those who only have one out (even if it's Pinnacle - which is widely regarded as the best book) are killing their profit.

To win the 2007 Fiesta Bowl:
Oklahoma University 40/294.40 (Pinnacle +736)
Auburn University 15/300 (Olympic +2000)
Iowa University 10/330 (Olympic +3300)
Louisville University 10/394.60 (Pinny +3946)
Nebraska University 5/300 (Olympic +6000)

To win the Big 12:
Oklahoma 40/60 (Olympic +150)

To win the Big 10:
Iowa 20/130 (Olympic +650)


Later, I will talk about what I find so appealing about these teams, and what I find disconcerting about the teams that most people are picking.

[Blackbeard]

gL TP!!!!

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I feel the Oklahoma Sooners are the #1 choice for the 2007 National Champions, and well worth a play at +736:
This team is absolutely loaded defensively, which is the first thing I look at when looking for a national champion. The second thing I look at is head coaching – and Bob Stoops is #2 on my list of college football head coaches.
Oklahoma has the best defensive line in the nation – that’s not debatable. It’s also arguable that they have the best linebackers and secondary in the nation. Oh yeah, they also have the best player in the country as well, in running back Adrian Peterson. I’ve never been more impressed watching a college RB. The kid finished second in the Heisman voting as a freshman, and would have won it if not for the hesitancy of the committee to vote for a frosh.
Many feel that QB Rhett Bomar is a liability for the Sooners – not so fast. He was money down the stretch last season. He got better game after game, culminating with his being named MVP of the Holiday Bowl. He was the #1 ranked QB coming out of high school a couple years before, and he started to show why. And his job will be made much easier this season by having AD behind him. He also has talented, explosive receivers, notably Kelly and Iglesias, with Thompson also a suitable option. Now, the Sooners’ offensive line isn’t great, but it’s still good enough to get AD 2,000 yards.
AD only had three carries against Texas last year. This year, he gets closer to 30, and the Longhorns won’t be scoring more than a couple times. I think this is a rout all the way. Only two other games present more than minor troubles – at Oregon and at Texas A&M. While both of those teams are capable of springing an upset, they aren’t really top 20 teams. The Sooners most likely loss is at Oregon, but that is early enough in the year that they can lose that game and still play for the championship – the computers have proven to favor OU in the past.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I feel the Iowa Hawkeyes are well worth a play at +3300:
Only four programs have played in January the last four seasons. Here’s one of them, and I feel the Hawkeyes are ready to make the leap to 12-0 and playing for the national championship. I really love this team this season; they have all the ingredients of a national champion.
I mentioned above that I have Bob Stoops the #2 head coach in the nation. Right here is the one man better. Kirk Ferentz has brought consistent winning to Iowa, especially in home games. The Hawkeyes have won 22 of 23 home games, with the lone loss in overtime. They have a revenge date with Ohio St. this season, and they should get it. The last time Ohio St. came into Iowa City as a top 10 team (2004), they left with their tail between their legs after a 33-7 victory.
In fact, I think we can pencil in the Hawkeyes for a 7-0 home schedule this season. It’s the five road games that could present a problem – everyone knows that the road isn’t friendly in the Big 10. But, their five road games aren’t that intimidating – Syracuse, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota. The loss of Gary Russell makes Minnesota relatively impotent, and the other three are terrible. That leaves only Michigan as a real obstacle. The best season in Hawkeye history (2002 – a very similar team to this one) saw them win at Michigan, and I think they very well can again this season, as the Wolverines aren’t exactly great, and they have the worst head coach in major college football, IMO.
The Hawkeyes probably have the best QB/RB/TE combination in the country, as TE Chandler is far and away the best in the nation. Drew Tate is capable of making a Heisman run, and Albert Young ran for well over 1300 yards last season. The Hawkeyes will, as always, feature a strong line on both sides of the ball. Iowa did lose two very good linebackers, but their replacements are capable of coming close to the numbers they put up. The secondary is strong, and the special teams are among the five best in the nation.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I feel the Auburn Tigers are well worth a play at +2000:
In this age of SEC parity, it’s a bold statement to say that a team will run the table in the SEC. Here’s the team capable of doing it. The Tigers have a very good defense, a good head coach, and a returning starting QB and RB. That RB, Irons, is as good as any in the SEC, and I think he will help put a lot of games away late.
But most importantly, Auburn has a schedule that is very, very conducive to running the table. The Tigers get 8 home games, including their four most difficult opponents – LSU, Arkansas, Florida, and Georgia. I don’t know if any of those teams are good enough to go into Jorden-Hare and get a victory. The most difficult road games are at South Carolina and Alabama, neither of which is a top-25 team.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I feel the Louisville Cardinals are well worth a play at +3946:
Is Louisville one of the 10 best teams in the nation? Maybe. But they definitely aren’t one of the best 5. So why in the world would I bet on them to win the national championship? It’s simple really: schedule, schedule, schedule.
Last year, the Cardinals completely rolled at home. Average score: 55.33-16.33. That dominance will be tested this season, as both Miami and West Virginia come to Louisville. But that’s good, as Louisville knows they can beat both of those teams. Last year, the Cardinals lost in 3OT @ WVU (In a game they had won, thanks to a coaching mistake and an officiating mistake), and two years ago, they lost by 3 @ Miami – in a game they led by as many as 17 (Side note: Louisville +10 in that game was one of the biggest bets I have made in my life).
The Cardinals have 53 returning lettermen, including everyone on special teams. The Cardinals only have six returning starters on offense, but two of those are legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates, in QB Brohm and RB Bush. They will put up huge numbers against this schedule.
The defense isn’t likely to shut down many opponents this season, but they won’t have to. There are two somewhat tough road games, @ Pitt and @ Rutgers – but Louisville should be at least a 7-point favorite in both those games, so we’ll see. Considering the egg they laid @ South Florida last season, you never know. Still, at around 40-1, I love the price.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I feel the Nebraska Cornhuskers are well worth a play at +6000:
This is 100% a gut call, but this year’s Nebraska team reminds me a lot of the 2000 Oklahoma Sooners. A team with a proud history ranked outside the top 20, that has switched to a wide open offense, while maintaining their strong defensive roots. Also, they lost 4 games (OU actually lost 5 in 1999) the year before, and were impressive in a bowl game win over #20 Michigan.
They avoid Oklahoma until the Big 12 Championship, and besides playing @ USC, they won’t be more than a slight dog all season. If they happen to beat USC – a very real possibility – they could mount a serious charge at a miracle season. It’s not likely, but it’s well within the realm of possibility.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I don’t like Notre Dame’s chances of winning the Fiesta Bowl:
Well, I’ll be honest. If Auburn or Louisville switched schedules with Notre Dame, I would have no interest in them as potential championship winners – and I would understand some of the pundits who are predicting Notre Dame playing in the national championship game. Alas, Notre Dame’s schedule is a murderer’s row. Besides Army and Air Force, they don’t have a game where you just go, “Oh yeah, that’s an easy win.” They have a couple more games where they should win 90+% of the time (Stanford, North Carolina, @ Navy), but each of their other 7 games qualify as very losable. Their opener at Georgia Tech could be upset city – a home team with the better defense and most talented player on the field can’t be ignored – and their next four games are tough as well. They should beat Penn St. in week 2, but I feel they will have their hands full with Michigan the next week. Then they go to East Lansing to plan a Michigan St. team that has had their number lately. They could be anywhere from 1-3 to 4-0 at this point, but I would be more than willing to bet they have at least one loss by the end of September. There is also the problem of ending their season at USC – the end of the season should be the worst possible time to play the Trojans, as they are likely to struggle early in the season, but pick it up late.
Despite loads of respect for Charlie Weis, his team isn’t stout enough defensively to manage this schedule. Also, I can’t pick a team to win the national championship that hasn’t won any bowl game in 15 years.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I don’t like Ohio St.’s chances of winning the Fiesta Bowl:
For one thing, I’ve never been more certain of a game than the one in Iowa City on September 30. The public is guaranteed to be squarely (pun intended) behind Ohio St. -2 or whatever the line will be. The only other time Tressel went to Iowa City, he got a coaching lesson and an ass-kicking as Ferentz’s Hawkeyes rolled the Bucks 33-7 as a 1-point underdog. I will have one of my biggest bets of the year on Iowa, pretty much regardless of the line, unless Tate is out.
It will be difficult for the Bucks to make it to Tempe if they lose this game, and even if they don’t there are a lot of other roadblocks. They have to travel to Texas and Michigan St. The Michigan St. game actually is more of a concern in my opinion, because Stanton should shred an Ohio St. secondary that is not even close to being national-championship worthy – it’s actually not even MAC-championship worthy.
They close the year at home against Michigan – could be interesting, but as long as Lloyd Carr is at Michigan, they aren’t a real threat to beat a top 10 team.
Anyway, the main thing is that a team with 2 starters returning on defense isn’t winning the national championship – and frankly, I think their offense is a bit over-hyped. They’re good, but they don’t impress me as much as they do certain members of the media. I know they rolled Notre Dame’s defense, but so did Stanford and every other mediocre offense that faced the Irish.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Why I don’t like West Virginia’s chances of winning the Fiesta Bowl:
I was really impressed by the Mounties performance against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl last year, and they return most of the key offensive players, but their defense is inferior to that team. But more importantly, they aren’t going to win the Big East, Louisville is.
For whatever reason, whenever WVU is hyped, they struggle (two years ago when many pundits predicted they would be in the national championship game – Corso picked them to win it – they went 8-4. Last year, they were predicted to finish in the middle of the Big East, and they went 11-1).
Defense not good enough, and very treacherous road schedule. Besides going to Louisville, they also have very losable games @ UCONN and Pitt – the latter of which can be a legitimate darkhorse in the Big East.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Other pretenders:

Texas – I simply can’t seem them beating Oklahoma, and playing Ohio St. isn’t an easy task either. Even if they miraculously navigate through both of those unscathed, they travel to Nebraska and Texas Tech. Vince Young made Mack Brown look like a genius last season, but I think it’s a return to the bumbling Mack Brown this year.

USC – They lost a hell of a lot, and their schedule is tough as well. I think they lose their opener @ Arkansas, but they could run the table from there, if things go perfectly. That’s a big if, considering the Trojans have only 10 returning starters.

California – A lot of people say this is their sleeper team. Don’t get me wrong, I love Marshawnn Lynch – he’s probably the second best running back in the nation (though Louisville fans have a decent argument) – but they play @ Tennessee, @ USC, and @ an Arizona team that is poised to make a move in the Pac 10. What do those teams have in common? They all stop the run well. I don’t trust Longshore or Ayoob to put many points on the board.

LSU – This is a really good team with a coach I’m not crazy about, and a quarterback that is wildly inconsistent. Bad combination for the toughest road schedule I can remember. @ Auburn (the home team always wins in this series), @ Florida (I’m not crazy about the Gators, but the Swamp is always a tough environment), @ Tennessee (SEC sleeper who just so happens to have beaten the Bengal Tigers in Baton Rouge last season), and @ Arkansas.

[drugstuntman]

good stuff TP !!!!

[Spark]

Great stuff buddy ... thanks

[STaylor36]

Great stuff.

I took a shot on USC at 13-1, $50 to win $650.

They did lose a lot of big names but hey also are returning a ton of talent and they get Notre Dame, Arizona St., Oregon, and Cal at home. I think there's a decent chance they go undefeated while the big dogs from the Big 10 and SEC beat each other up.

[jcindaville]

But more importantly, they aren’t going to win the Big East, Louisville is.


I knew i liked you.

Welcome to da VIlle baby
you know da deal baby
Welcome to da ville baby
we keep it real baby