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Things have been going swimmingly lately. Last four plays have won by 5, 5, 10, and 6 runs - 3 at + odds. I also won an unposted play on Cubs Team Total Under - I alluded to it in another thread, but never posted it here.
Oh yeah, no one gets more big hits than Jeff Francouer.
Baseball Plays (46-45, +5.73*)
Two 1/2 unit plays. Neither is overly strong, but I see decent value in both.
0.5* Pirates +156 (Snell/Lieber)
Not sure why Lieber is this much of a favorite over any capable offense. The Pirates have been hitting well lately, scoring 6.8 last 5 and 5.6 last 10. Lieber hasn't started in over a month, and he probably won't go too deep in this one. His ERA in 11 starts is 5.81, and in 7 home starts, it's 6.38. The Phillies' long relief is nothing special.
Snell has been better than Lieber, but still not great (5.02 ERA). In 7 starts away from home, he's 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA. He faced the Phillies once this season, and gave up 5 hits and 0 ER in 7 IP. The Phillies' offense hasn't been hitting that much (4.6 rpg last 5 and last 10), they are six games under .500 at home.
These teams numbers against RHP are basically equal. The price tag is just too high here.
0.5* Reds +130 (Milton/Ramirez)
Resiliency has been a trademark of this Reds team all season, and I think they bounce back from the tough loss today.
This is a lefty-lefty matchup, and the Reds average 1.6 more rpg against LHSP than the Braves (5.8-4.2). Also, the Braves are three games under .500 at home, and the Reds are four games over .500 on the road.
Ramirez's numbers are a bit of a mirage, in my opinion. As a fan, I hope I'm wrong about him, but he's doing it with smoke and mirrors. Milton hasn't been great, but his road numbers (3-1, 4.47 ERA) are good enough to play him here. He has always been a fly-ball pitcher, and the wind is expected to be blowing in - not that Turner Field is a great hitter's park anyway.
Very small personal play:
Boston (JL) @ White Sox (MB) Under 10 (-115) - Both these teams have been terrible against lefties, and I expect Buerhle to have a strong start after his last outing was an embarassment. Lester has been pretty good, and the Sox may struggle with a pitcher they don't know.
Good luck everyone!
Oh yeah, no one gets more big hits than Jeff Francouer.
Baseball Plays (46-45, +5.73*)
Two 1/2 unit plays. Neither is overly strong, but I see decent value in both.
0.5* Pirates +156 (Snell/Lieber)
Not sure why Lieber is this much of a favorite over any capable offense. The Pirates have been hitting well lately, scoring 6.8 last 5 and 5.6 last 10. Lieber hasn't started in over a month, and he probably won't go too deep in this one. His ERA in 11 starts is 5.81, and in 7 home starts, it's 6.38. The Phillies' long relief is nothing special.
Snell has been better than Lieber, but still not great (5.02 ERA). In 7 starts away from home, he's 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA. He faced the Phillies once this season, and gave up 5 hits and 0 ER in 7 IP. The Phillies' offense hasn't been hitting that much (4.6 rpg last 5 and last 10), they are six games under .500 at home.
These teams numbers against RHP are basically equal. The price tag is just too high here.
0.5* Reds +130 (Milton/Ramirez)
Resiliency has been a trademark of this Reds team all season, and I think they bounce back from the tough loss today.
This is a lefty-lefty matchup, and the Reds average 1.6 more rpg against LHSP than the Braves (5.8-4.2). Also, the Braves are three games under .500 at home, and the Reds are four games over .500 on the road.
Ramirez's numbers are a bit of a mirage, in my opinion. As a fan, I hope I'm wrong about him, but he's doing it with smoke and mirrors. Milton hasn't been great, but his road numbers (3-1, 4.47 ERA) are good enough to play him here. He has always been a fly-ball pitcher, and the wind is expected to be blowing in - not that Turner Field is a great hitter's park anyway.
Very small personal play:
Boston (JL) @ White Sox (MB) Under 10 (-115) - Both these teams have been terrible against lefties, and I expect Buerhle to have a strong start after his last outing was an embarassment. Lester has been pretty good, and the Sox may struggle with a pitcher they don't know.
Good luck everyone!
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