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**pm530** · 07-04-2006, 10:35 AM

Dunkel Index - Baseball

Dunkel Index – MLB

Tuesday, July 4

Game 951-952: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Olsen) 15.54; Washington (Patterson) 14.62
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+1 1/2); Over

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.19; NY Mets (Glavine) 15.44
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-1 1/2); Under

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Prior) 13.33; Houston (Pettitte) 15.23
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1 1/2); Over

Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.74; Milwaukee (Davis) 14.88
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+1 1/2); Under

Game 959-960: San Diego at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Hensley) 15.31; Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.65
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1 1/2); Neutral

Game 961-962: St. Louis at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.02; Atlanta (Thomson) 14.55
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2); Over

Game 963-964: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Schmidt) 16.10; Colorado (Francis) 16.81
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+1 1/2); Over

Game 965-966: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (EN Gonzalez) 14.73; LA Dodgers (Sele) 15.73
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+1 1/2); Over

Game 967-968: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels 15.27; Seattle (Meche) 16.19
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+1 1/2); Under

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Lopez) 14.31; Chicago White Sox (Contreras) 16.08
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-1 1/2); Under

Game 971-972: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Schilling) 17.03; Tampa Bay (Fossum) 14.47
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-1 1/2); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 17.47; Oakland (Haren) 15.08
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Under

Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chacon) 15.40; Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.11
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1 1/2); Under

Game 977-978: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.17; Texas (Koronka) 14.21
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+1 1/2); Under

Game 979-980: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Bonser) 17.59; Kansas City (Gobble) 14.29
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Over

Happy Independence Day!

**Spark** · 07-04-2006, 10:36 AM

Six-Pack for Tuesday
-- Got some feedback on our article about Kojo Mensah and his transfer to Duquesne; my bottom line is this: kids pick the coach, moreso than the college. When coach gets fired, the kids he recruited are likely to leave as well. Its just the way things work in a very cutthroat business.
-- Every day the Mets play sloppy ball with lousy pitching, Lastings Milledge takes another step further away from the big ballpark in Flushing, Queens. They've played a lot of poor baseball in last two weeks. July will be telltale month for Omar Minaya and the Metropolitans, as far as how they shape their roster for postseason play and coming years. .
-- Actor John Jackson, who was admiral in the TV show JAG, is dad of Diamondbacks' 1st baseman Conor Jackson.
-- Arizona hit Nomar Garciaparra three times Monday and he got drilled by batted ball as well. Diamondbacks played horrible game Monday, after sweeping A's over weekend.
-- Ben Wallace signed for $60 million for four years from Chicago, lot more ($12M) more than Pistons offered. Will Detroit play a lot faster now? Imagine how much Wallace could make if he could actually shoot a basketball?
-- Today is Independence Day; we owe our freedom to the brave men and women of our armed services. Thank you to all our service people around the world.

**Spark** · 07-04-2006, 10:37 AM

Tuesday's List of 13: Offseason report: Cincinnati Bengals
13) Last season was best one for Bengals since John Taylor broke their heart in Super Bowl almost twenty years ago, but it ended with Carson Palmer's knee screwed up; mercifully, it looks as if Palmer's recovery is going well, because Jon Kitna is in Detroit now, and there is no quality backup should #9 not be able to go this season.

12) Cincy set tone last year with +12 turnover margin in first three games, and field position advantages of 14-20-17 yards. For season, Bengals' +26 turnover margin led league- they took ball away 45 times. Can they match that in '06?

11) Bengal defense forced 3-and-outs on only 27.9% of enemy possessions, 29th in league; like the Herm Edwards-Jets, who in past depended solely on creating turnovers, if those takeaways slip, can they stop the opponent in more traditional ways? They stopped foes on 3rd down just 55.7% of time last year (31st).

10) Buffalo scored 37 on them, Colts scored 45 (six TD's on 10 drives), both in games where Bengals had only one takeaway. Championship teams can stop teams without forcing miscues flash-in-pan teams win by creating lot of turnovers.

9) Bengal opponents started 49 drives 80+ yards from the end zone; nine times did Cincinnati force a 3-and-out (equivalent to a turnover, field position-wise). Chiefs were only team that forced fewer than that. Cincy's defense needs some work.

8) Bengals scored 47 TD's last year; only Colts-Chargers-Seattle scored more; their 28% TD rate on 168 possessions was 4th in NFL.

7) Palmer-led offense was 4th in NFL on third down (42.9%) and 4th in green zone, scoring 4.22 ppp on drives that started in enemy territory. With 45 takeaways, Bengals started 32 drives in the green zone, 4th-most in NFL.

6) Bengals didn't start halves well, outscored 27-26 on first drive of game, 50-40 on first drive of third quarter; as matter of fact, only Arizona (59) allowed more points on first drive of second half, and only three teams allowed more than the 36.6 ypd Cincinnati gave up after making halftime adjustments.

5) AFC North is tough division filled with traditional rivals, but Steelers are team that is haunting Cincinnati right now; even in game Bengals beat Pitt last year, Steelers gained 474 total yards and scored 31 points. Cincy's field position edge of +12, thanks to +4 turnover margin, was difference in closer-than-hoped 38-31 win that signaled Pitt as the better team, over long haul.

4) Baltimore is expected to be better this year, but Bengals whacked them twice last year, scoring eight TD's on 21 drives against Billick's Birds. Cincy averaged 5.86 ppp in red zone against Ravens last year, while holding Baltimore to 3.83. McNair improves the Raven offense, though, so that gap could close.

3) Bengals drafted a corner with their first pick, then went for a tackle and three more defensive players. Marvin Lewis has taken chances on kids with rap sheets, and AJ Nicholson is another one of those. Whether that chatches up with Bengals remains to be seen; you don't want too many bad characters on squad whose recent success rests on fragile foundation

2) The '06 schedule starts at Arrowhead, then a must-win home game vs Browns, a trip to Pittsburgh and home game vs Patriots, before the Week 5 bye. A 2-2 start wouldn't be so bad. Bengals get two prime-time games in last five weeks- they finish at home with the Steelers, and also visit Colts, Broncos in December. A tough schedule.

1) Bottom line is, Cincinnati needs Palmer healthy, and they need more solid defense, in case footballs (turnovers) don't bounce their way as well this year. After all, +26 turnover ratios are hard to come by.

**Spark** · 07-04-2006, 01:51 PM

Hot Pitchers
-- Olsen is 4-1, 2.41 in his last six starts.
-- Mets won 11 of Glavine's last 12 starts (5.53 RA in last five).
-- Arroyo is 3-2, 3.00 in his last six starts. Davis has 2.05 RA in his last three Miller Park starts.
-- Carpenter is 2-1, 3.00 in his last four starts.
-- Schmidt has 2.03 RA in his last twelve starts.
-- EnGonzalez is 1-1, 3.00 in three home starts. Sele is 4-0, 1.65 in five home starts this season.

-- Santana is 4-0, 2.48 in his last five starts.
-- Westbrook has 2.89 RA in his last four starts, but Indians are 3-8 in his starts if they give him less than eight runs.
-- Boston won eight of Schilling's last nine starts.
-- Verlander is 3-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Patterson is 0-2, 7.00 in two starts since coming off the DL.
-- Pirates lost Duke's last five road starts (0-4, 6.23).
-- Prior is 0-3, 9.60 in his first three '06 starts. Pettitte is 0-2, 7.79 in his last three starts.
-- Hamels is 1-3, 8.27 in his last four starts. Hensley has 8.02 RA in his last four road starts.
-- Thomson is 0-3, 11.34 in his last four starts.
-- Francis is 0-2, 6.38 in his last three starts.

-- Contreras has 6.45 RA in his last six starts. Orioles lost five of Lopez' six road starts this season.
-- Chacon is 0-1, 12.64 in his last four starts.
-- Gobble allowed one run in four IP in only other '06 start, on May 24, a 6-3 home loss to Detroit. Home team is 5-1 in Bonser starts; Boof is 0-1, 5.48 in four road outings.

Totals
-- Five of last six Olsen starts stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Pirate road games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Pettitte starts.
-- Over is 14-5-1 in Cincinnati's last twenty road games.
-- Five of seven Hamels starts went over the total.
-- Last eight Thomson starts went over the total.
-- Under is 19-6-1 in last 26 games at Coors Field.
-- Seven of nine Sele starts went over the total.

-- Over is 6-2-2 in Angels' last ten games.
-- Six of last eight White Sox home games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten Boston road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eleven Detroit road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Cleveland home games stayed under total.
--
-- Three of last four Bonser starts stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Reds won eleven of their last fifteen road games.
-- Astros won last three games, scoring 23 runs.
-- Padres are 7-3 in last ten road series openers.
-- Colorado won six of their last nine games. Giants won six of their last eight games.

-- Bronx won eight of their last twelve games.
-- White Sox are 19-7 in their last twenty-six games.
-- Kansas City won five of their last seven home games. Twins won 11 in row and are 7-1 in last eight road games.
-- Tigers won eighteen of their last twenty-two games.
-- Mariners won six of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Brewers lost four of their last six games.
-- Marlins lost four of their last five games. Nationals are 4-9 in their last thirteen games.
-- Atlanta is 5-15 in its last twenty home games. Cardinals lost eleven of their last thirteen games.
-- Phillies lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last nine games. Pirates lost six out of last seven on road, are 9-31 this season on foreign soil.
-- Cubs are 11-22 in their last thirty-three road games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games. Arizona is 6-21 in its last 27 games.

-- Orioles lost 23 of their last thirty-four road games.
-- Red Sox are 3-10 on artificial turf this season.
-- Rangers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- A's lost five of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- (Fla-Wsh) Under is 13-2-1 in last sixteen BWelke games.
-- (Pitt-NY) Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Hernandez games, with the dog winning six of his last seven games behind plate.
-- (Chi-Hst) Under, favorite both 5-1 in last six Layne games.
-- (Cin-Mil) Visiting team won four of Reilly's last five games.
-- We don't know who umpire is for Padres-Phillies.
-- (StL-Atl) Seven of last ten Reynolds games stayed under total.
-- (SF-Col) Underdog is 9-6 in last fifteen Joyce games, with the underdog winning his last six games.
-- (Az-LA) Underdog is 6-5 in last 11 Diaz games; under is 3-1-1 in his last five games behind the dish.

-- (LA-Sea) Over is 11-5-1 in Crawford games this season.
-- (Blt-Chi) Favorite is 12-2 in last fourteen Dreckman games.
-- (Bos-TB) Four of last five Nauert games went over total, with underdog 3-2 in those games.
-- (Det-A's) Favorite won four of last five Kulpa games.
-- (NY-Cle) Under is 10-4 in Hirschbeck games; dogs are 7-5 in his last dozen games behind plate.
-- (Tor-Tex) Underdog is 5-4 in Miller's last nine games.
-- (Min-KC) Underdog is 12-5 in Marquez games this season.

**Spark** · 07-04-2006, 02:19 PM

MLB Baseball Trends

Tuesday, July 4

National League:

Florida at Washington, 1:05 EST
Scott Olsen (L) vs. John Patterson (R)
Olsen: 6-1 TSR in road games
Patterson: Washington 15-29 SU at home in the second half of the season

Pittsburgh at NY Mets, 1:10 EST
Zach Duke (L) vs. Tom Glavine (L)
Duke: Pittsburgh 6-23 SU in day games
Glavine: 12-2 TSR as a favorite

Chicago Cubs at Houston, 2:05 EST WGN
Mark Prior (R) vs. Andy Pettitte (L)
Prior: Cubs 2-12 SU playing with triple revenge
Pettitte: Houston 24-7 SU in July

Cincinnati at Milwaukee, 2:05 EST
Bronson Arroyo (R) vs. Doug Davis (L)
Arroyo: Cincinnati 1-12 SU away off a one-run loss
Davis: Milwaukee 13-6 SU as a home underdog of +125 to +175

San Diego at Philadelphia, 3:05 EST
Clay Hensley (R) vs. Cole Hamels (L)
Hensley: San Diego 17-7 SU away off 6+ home games
Hamels: Philadelphia 2-15 SU at home off 3+ road games

St. Louis at Atlanta, 7:05 EST
Chris Carpenter (R) vs. John Thomson (R)
Carpenter: 23-4 TSR pitching on 5 or 6 days rest
Thomson: 1-5 TSR in home games this season

San Francisco at Colorado, 8:05 EST
Jason Schmidt (R) vs. Jeff Francis (L)
Schmidt: 24-12 Over vs. division opponents
Francis: Colorado 20-10 SU after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Arizona at LA Dodgers, 9:10 EST
Enrique Gonzalez (R) vs. Aaron Sele (R)
Gonzalez: Arizona 3-13 SU off a loss by 4+ runs
Sele: Dodgers 26-13 Over in home games

American League:

LA Angels at Seattle, 4:05 EST
Ervin Santana (R) vs. Gil Meche (R)
Santana: Angels 11-1 SU off a division win by 6+ runs
Meche: Seattle 5-15 SU after scoring 2 runs or less

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox, 4:05 EST
Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Jose Contreras (R)
Lopez: 2-9 TSR vs. AL Central opponents
Contreras: 17-4 TSR in the second half of the season

Boston at Tampa Bay, 4:15 EST
Curt Schilling (R) vs. Casey Fossum (L)
Schilling: 13-1 TSR as a favorite
Fossum: Tampa Bay 15-34 SU vs. Boston

Detroit at Oakland, 5:05 EST
Justin Verlander (R) vs. Danny Haren (R)
Verlander: Detroit 19-4 SU as a road favorite
Haren: Oakland 13-3 Under at home in day games

NY Yankees at Cleveland, 6:05 EST
Shawn Chacon (R) vs. Jake Westbrook (R)
Chacon: Yankees 19-9 SU in day games
Westbrook: 5-13 TSR pitching on 5 or 6 days rest

Toronto at Texas, 8:05 EST
Roy Halladay (R) vs. John Koronka (L)
Halladay: 19-2 TSR in night games
Koronka: Texas 1-9 SU as a home underdog

Minnesota at Kansas City, 8:10 EST
Boof Bonser (R) vs. Jimmy Gobble (L)
Bonser: Minnesota 18-1 SU as a favorite of -150 or higher
Gobble: Kansas City 38-19 Over off a one-run loss

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