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Happy 4th of July everyone. I hope you all enjoy your day, and hopefully we can make a little profit as well.
Kazmir's brilliance left us on the plus side yesterday - I didn't have a chance to watch the Brewers game. I know it was on pace to go well under, then things exploded in the bottom of the 6th and later. Anyway, sorry about that one, I started regretting it this morning. I'll be laying off totals for awhile.
A couple questions that were asked in Monday's thread that I wasn't available to answer:
Glad to hear it. Indeed, the Braves did win - sorry about the under. I'm glad you only had to pay even money. I hope you played the late game as well.
Right about now, I'd call it a -1.25 unit play. I play all these games for the same amount. I grade them as 1 unit plays unless I specifically post another amount. I do feel that some games are stronger than others, but baseball is such a grind that I believe it is best to play games for relatively the same amount. I will rate plays as 1-5 units in football.
Nice call on Texas. I definitely think the Jays win Tuesday, as the Rangers have been really bad versus righties at home (and Halladay is the best RH starter in the game), and we all know what the Jays do to lefties.
Thanks for all the responses guys.
Baseball Plays (42-45, +1.12*) - Two home dogs, both lines from 5Dimes, though Pinny's lines are comparable.
Colorado Rockies +111 (Francis/Schmidt)
These two pitchers met May 26, and the Giants won 9-0. So, at first glimpse, the Giants -116 may look tempting. Unfortunately, it's never that easy.
Jennings' 4.15 home ERA is impressive. Yes, fewer runs have been scored at Coors this season, but it's still a hitter's park. Jennings throws a lot of sinkers, and keeps the ball down in the zone. He faced this Giants lineup once at home this season, and gave up 4 hits and 1 run in 6 2/3 IP in a 3-2 win.
Schmidt, on the other hand, keeps the ball up in the zone a little too much to be successful at Coors. This was evidenced in his lone start there this season, where he gave up 7 hits, 3 walks, and 5 earned runs in a 9-8 loss.
The Rockies offense has been hot lately, scoring over 6 rpg last 5 games, which is two more than the Giants.
Here's a misleading stat: the Rockies average the same number of runs against RHSP as the Giants do against LHSP. It's misleading because the Rockies average almost more extra base hits, and almost a whole hit per game more in these respective situations. That will correct itself over time, and hopefully it starts here.
Kansas City Royals +149 (Gobble/Bonser)
The Twins have won 19 of 20 games. This is well publicized, but not so publicized is the streak the Royals are on. They have been playing better than .500 baseball for some time now, and they are averaging 6.7 rpg last 10.
Here's a weird fact. The Royals' home record is better than the Twins' road record by 5 games.
Jimmy Gobble actually has been very good this season. His ERA is 3.71, and his WHIP is only slightly above 1. Recently, he joined the starting rotation, where he pitched 4 innings and gave up 3 hits and 1 run against a good Detroit offense. The word is that he pitches deeper this time out, as he becomes more acclamated to the starting role. The Twins are really bad on the road (4.1 rpg), and have scored significantly fewer runs against LHSP (4.6 rpg - not to mention a 13-15 record) than RHSP (5.2 rpg).
On the other hand, I like Boof Bonser's name a lot more than his game. His ERA is 4.75, his road ERA is 5.55, and his last 5 starts ERA is 5.50. He comes in off 6.1 scoreless IP against the hapless Cubs, and I don't think he can repeat that against a Royals offense that scores 5.2 rpg at home, and is 12-12 at home against RHSP.
Small Personal Plays (Played for 1/5th of the POD):
Devil Rays +193 - How a Boston team that is 12-13 against LHSP, and 5-8 on the road against LHSP can be this much of a road favorite is beyond me.
Portugal to advance +175 - Way too much being made of France's victory over an incredibly overrated Brazil team. The fact is, this team is old, and not worthy of being this much of a favorite against a very good Portugal team that will -with respect to Zidane and Henri - have the best player on the pitch.
Kazmir's brilliance left us on the plus side yesterday - I didn't have a chance to watch the Brewers game. I know it was on pace to go well under, then things exploded in the bottom of the 6th and later. Anyway, sorry about that one, I started regretting it this morning. I'll be laying off totals for awhile.
A couple questions that were asked in Monday's thread that I wasn't available to answer:
Originally posted by soonerbud
Originally posted by KR-V3
Originally posted by Kappa
Thanks for all the responses guys.
Baseball Plays (42-45, +1.12*) - Two home dogs, both lines from 5Dimes, though Pinny's lines are comparable.
Colorado Rockies +111 (Francis/Schmidt)
These two pitchers met May 26, and the Giants won 9-0. So, at first glimpse, the Giants -116 may look tempting. Unfortunately, it's never that easy.
Jennings' 4.15 home ERA is impressive. Yes, fewer runs have been scored at Coors this season, but it's still a hitter's park. Jennings throws a lot of sinkers, and keeps the ball down in the zone. He faced this Giants lineup once at home this season, and gave up 4 hits and 1 run in 6 2/3 IP in a 3-2 win.
Schmidt, on the other hand, keeps the ball up in the zone a little too much to be successful at Coors. This was evidenced in his lone start there this season, where he gave up 7 hits, 3 walks, and 5 earned runs in a 9-8 loss.
The Rockies offense has been hot lately, scoring over 6 rpg last 5 games, which is two more than the Giants.
Here's a misleading stat: the Rockies average the same number of runs against RHSP as the Giants do against LHSP. It's misleading because the Rockies average almost more extra base hits, and almost a whole hit per game more in these respective situations. That will correct itself over time, and hopefully it starts here.
Kansas City Royals +149 (Gobble/Bonser)
The Twins have won 19 of 20 games. This is well publicized, but not so publicized is the streak the Royals are on. They have been playing better than .500 baseball for some time now, and they are averaging 6.7 rpg last 10.
Here's a weird fact. The Royals' home record is better than the Twins' road record by 5 games.
Jimmy Gobble actually has been very good this season. His ERA is 3.71, and his WHIP is only slightly above 1. Recently, he joined the starting rotation, where he pitched 4 innings and gave up 3 hits and 1 run against a good Detroit offense. The word is that he pitches deeper this time out, as he becomes more acclamated to the starting role. The Twins are really bad on the road (4.1 rpg), and have scored significantly fewer runs against LHSP (4.6 rpg - not to mention a 13-15 record) than RHSP (5.2 rpg).
On the other hand, I like Boof Bonser's name a lot more than his game. His ERA is 4.75, his road ERA is 5.55, and his last 5 starts ERA is 5.50. He comes in off 6.1 scoreless IP against the hapless Cubs, and I don't think he can repeat that against a Royals offense that scores 5.2 rpg at home, and is 12-12 at home against RHSP.
Small Personal Plays (Played for 1/5th of the POD):
Devil Rays +193 - How a Boston team that is 12-13 against LHSP, and 5-8 on the road against LHSP can be this much of a road favorite is beyond me.
Portugal to advance +175 - Way too much being made of France's victory over an incredibly overrated Brazil team. The fact is, this team is old, and not worthy of being this much of a favorite against a very good Portugal team that will -with respect to Zidane and Henri - have the best player on the pitch.
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