Tweet
Well, fortunately the Braves beat the Orioles. Unfortunately, they beat the hell out of them. So, winner on the Braves -115, loser on the under 9 (+101), and we're back where we started.
Baseball Play of the Day (41-44, +0.85)
Going with a side and a total again today, but two different games. I should preface this by saying I know nothing about anything.
Reds (Harang) @ Brewers (Bush) Waaay Under 9.5 (-125)
I don't mind the juice because my numbers gave me 7.60 as the total in this game.
Both teams average 4.5 rpg against RHSP, which is moderately less than they average against lefties. But that still gives us 9. So why the under?
Well, we look at the starting pitchers. Harang's 3.45 ERA is very respectable, but his road ERA is an incredible 1.58. Bush's home ERA is 3.16, well below his overall 4.46 ERA.
Even more importantly, Harang's road WHIP is 1.0 and Bush's home WHIP is 0.9. Their overall WHIP's are 1.2 and 1.1. This tells me that their ERAs are due to decline.
Devil Rays +152 (Kazmir/Beckett)
I can't imagine this surprises anyone who reads my threads with any regularity. First of all, I've said that a superior pitcher should never be receiving anywhere near +150. More importantly, we all know that Beckett is erratic, and while it's possible he throws a shutout here, it's more likely that he gets hit hard.
Beckett has been atrocious on the road, as he brings a 6.53 road ERA to Tampa. His 4.64 overall ERA is alright - not good for someone who is considered a premier pitcher, and certainly not good for a -160 road favorite. He did beat the Rays in his lone start against them, but that was in Boston.
Kazmir has won two of three starts against Boston this season - including beating Schilling in his lone home start vs. Boston - and he has had tons of success against them in the past. His home ERA is 2.36, and the Rays have won 5 of those 6 games. He averages 7 IP per home start, so the Rays bullpen - which has been getting better - won't be as much of a factor.
I also bet the Pirates +265 action, since Pedro will be scratched, and I intend to take the Mets -200 action or whatever tomorrow.
Good luck to everyone.
P.S. - I've got a really strong opinion on the Braves tomorrow. Smoltzie has been pitching better than the record shows, and the Cardinals are ice cold, while the Braves are starting to play well. I respect Reyes, but not as much as the oddsmakers do.
P.P.S. - It's a damn shame Chris Capuano was not selected to the All-Star team - hopefully he gets voted in the fans. If not, I can't remember a worse snub in any sport's all-star game. Good job of sending Pittsburgh's Sanchez and Atlanta's McCann - two guys who I thought absolutely deserved it, but wouldn't make it. I'm also glad Rios was selected, even though he won't be able to play.
Baseball Play of the Day (41-44, +0.85)
Going with a side and a total again today, but two different games. I should preface this by saying I know nothing about anything.
Reds (Harang) @ Brewers (Bush) Waaay Under 9.5 (-125)
I don't mind the juice because my numbers gave me 7.60 as the total in this game.
Both teams average 4.5 rpg against RHSP, which is moderately less than they average against lefties. But that still gives us 9. So why the under?
Well, we look at the starting pitchers. Harang's 3.45 ERA is very respectable, but his road ERA is an incredible 1.58. Bush's home ERA is 3.16, well below his overall 4.46 ERA.
Even more importantly, Harang's road WHIP is 1.0 and Bush's home WHIP is 0.9. Their overall WHIP's are 1.2 and 1.1. This tells me that their ERAs are due to decline.
Devil Rays +152 (Kazmir/Beckett)
I can't imagine this surprises anyone who reads my threads with any regularity. First of all, I've said that a superior pitcher should never be receiving anywhere near +150. More importantly, we all know that Beckett is erratic, and while it's possible he throws a shutout here, it's more likely that he gets hit hard.
Beckett has been atrocious on the road, as he brings a 6.53 road ERA to Tampa. His 4.64 overall ERA is alright - not good for someone who is considered a premier pitcher, and certainly not good for a -160 road favorite. He did beat the Rays in his lone start against them, but that was in Boston.
Kazmir has won two of three starts against Boston this season - including beating Schilling in his lone home start vs. Boston - and he has had tons of success against them in the past. His home ERA is 2.36, and the Rays have won 5 of those 6 games. He averages 7 IP per home start, so the Rays bullpen - which has been getting better - won't be as much of a factor.
I also bet the Pirates +265 action, since Pedro will be scratched, and I intend to take the Mets -200 action or whatever tomorrow.
Good luck to everyone.
P.S. - I've got a really strong opinion on the Braves tomorrow. Smoltzie has been pitching better than the record shows, and the Cardinals are ice cold, while the Braves are starting to play well. I respect Reyes, but not as much as the oddsmakers do.
P.P.S. - It's a damn shame Chris Capuano was not selected to the All-Star team - hopefully he gets voted in the fans. If not, I can't remember a worse snub in any sport's all-star game. Good job of sending Pittsburgh's Sanchez and Atlanta's McCann - two guys who I thought absolutely deserved it, but wouldn't make it. I'm also glad Rios was selected, even though he won't be able to play.
Comment