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Three plays Thursday - I am playing each for 0.5*. There is significant value in all three of these games, but I hate having more than 2* in play in a given night. (I actually play all my PODs for 5x what I personally refer to as 1 unit, but since I am playing them all for the same amount, it's just easier to grade them as being 1 unit plays.)
Baseball Play of the Day (38-39, +2.25* with the Pirates +150 pending)
All these teams have lefties going against righties, and the numbers are strongly in support of the lefties.
0.5* Pirates +162 (Duke/Contreras)
0.5* Brewers -101 (Davis/Prior)
0.5* Mets +138 (Glavine/Schilling)
CWS 7-9 on the road against LHSP
Cubs 8-19 against LHSP, 4-12 at home, and 1-8 in home day games
Red Sox 11-11 vs. LHSP, 6-5 at home
Gee, I'm betting on three NL teams (though one is against an NL team), which some seem to think it stupid, but I'm planning on laughing all the way to the bank. None of these lines are even in the ballpark of the correct value. Here were the lines I made out after seeing the pitching matchups (not that they are correct, but they are much closer to being correct than the actual lines):
CWS -135 @ Pit
Mil -130 @ Chi
NYM +110 @ Bos
All three plays are about the same strength in my estimation, thus the three plays. There's no sense in writing up the individual games - though I will add that Contreras is not pitching anywhere near well enough to be more than -150 on the road against anyone.
Anyway, good luck guys.
Baseball Play of the Day (38-39, +2.25* with the Pirates +150 pending)
All these teams have lefties going against righties, and the numbers are strongly in support of the lefties.
0.5* Pirates +162 (Duke/Contreras)
0.5* Brewers -101 (Davis/Prior)
0.5* Mets +138 (Glavine/Schilling)
CWS 7-9 on the road against LHSP
Cubs 8-19 against LHSP, 4-12 at home, and 1-8 in home day games
Red Sox 11-11 vs. LHSP, 6-5 at home
Gee, I'm betting on three NL teams (though one is against an NL team), which some seem to think it stupid, but I'm planning on laughing all the way to the bank. None of these lines are even in the ballpark of the correct value. Here were the lines I made out after seeing the pitching matchups (not that they are correct, but they are much closer to being correct than the actual lines):
CWS -135 @ Pit
Mil -130 @ Chi
NYM +110 @ Bos
All three plays are about the same strength in my estimation, thus the three plays. There's no sense in writing up the individual games - though I will add that Contreras is not pitching anywhere near well enough to be more than -150 on the road against anyone.
Anyway, good luck guys.
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