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Spears MLB System Plays Part Deaux

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  • #1

    Spears MLB System Plays Part Deaux

    My interest in dogs has me thinking of winning systems that I can find on different sites. Now I wish to go further into what is working. I may or may not play but am interested in monitoring and thus will have in my B/C Bank of Threads.


    System#1 Play on dog 100 to 150
    no play if dog has lost 3 in a row
    no play if favorite has won 3 in a row
    no play if dog going against top 20 era pitcher in that league


    System #2 (Filters)
    The criteria only states that the team has to be a dog for the entire series. It does not matter if they are home or away, but how they play at the venue they are playing does affect if they will be a play or not.

    Filters are as follows:
    Team must be dog for each game of series
    Can not play on a team on a 3 or more game losing streak
    Can not play against a team on a 3 or more game winning streak
    Can not play on a team that is 3-7 or worse last 10 games
    Can not play against a team that is 7-3 or better last 10 games

    Partial Filters
    Team must have .400+ win pct for road games if on road or home games if at home
    Can not play against teams with .600+ win pct for road games if on road or home games if at home.
    Play on team should be .400 or better over the last 3 years vs opponent
    Play on team should be .400 or better over the last 3 years vs opponent at site of game.

    Main filters totally cancel a play when one is not met.
    Partial Filters need 2 to occur to cancel a play or 1 and the following exception filter.

    Exception filter
    Road teams road record + home team's home record when combined after a reversal must be .450 or better.


    ----------------------------------------------------------
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    System #3 Bullpen ERA


    If two teams in the Top 10 are playing each other, bet UNDER.

    If two teams in the Bottom 10 (21-30) are playing each other, bet OVER
    Last edited by Spearit; 06-28-2006, 05:20 PM.
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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    • #3
      lots of possiblities there spearit----also lots of work involved---gl to ya---kapt


      Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

      Comment

      • #4
        Two systems that are hitting quite nicely!! The tie is a product of a sites simulations- So Lets monitor this.

        1) Play Against Home Favorites -130 to Pick 16-8 +8.2 units

        2) One other segment has emerged worth sharing, which is the complete opposite of the one listed above. When the game adds up to a tie and the home favorite is priced -135 to -175, play on the home favorite.
        Play On Home Favorites -135 to -175 12-4 +5.6 units


        Tonights plays are the Yanks over Toronto and Florida Marlins over Pitt.
        Last edited by Spearit; 07-20-2006, 07:24 PM.
        "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by Spearit
          Three systems that are hitting quite nicely!! These stats are configured from another site- Lets monitor this.

          1) Play Against Home Favorites -130 to Pick 16-8 +8.2 units

          2) One other segment has emerged worth sharing, which is the complete opposite of the one listed above. When the game adds up to a tie and the home favorite is priced -135 to -175, play on the home favorite. In this case the home team has been a dominant 12-4 +5.6 units.

          3) Play On Home Favorites -135 to -175 12-4 +5.6 units


          Tonights plays are the Yanks over Toronto and Florida
          i think they both started.....

          Comment

          • #6
            Yep- Found this after the game started. So Just monitoring the plays and see how they do. My play is on Arizona Under 8 1/2. Thanx Tony.
            Last edited by Spearit; 07-20-2006, 07:27 PM.
            "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by Spearit
              Yep- Found this after the game started. So Just monitoring the plays and see how they do. My play is on Arizona Under 8 1/2. Thanx Tony.

              sounds good..i am on your under as well....you are solid brother

              Comment

              • #8
                System 4
                essentially its taking weighted averages of starters Runs Allowed per game in all games, last 3 games, Home/Road splits and bullpen RAPG in all games and Home/Road splits...averaging those with RPG for the opposing teams' offense in all games, Home/Road splits, LHP/RHP splits, taking the total of the 2 teams and comparing it to the O/U number. If the difference is greater than .51 then you play which ever way the difference favors.

                I got the idea from ******* Doug's post a month or so ago, added some splits, and tweaked it a little. I've been checking out the results for sides, dogs, and totals. The totals I have posted have been the only consistently successful ones.

                33-11 Record 2nd half of the season.
                MLB Totals 32-11 .744 since 7/6
                I've been working on a totals system for MLB. I started testing it on July 6th and it has gone 32-11 .744 +19.9 units (assuming a -110 line). Today's Plays are:

                Results 2-2 Now 34-13 as of 7-22
                Brewers/Reds OVER 9.5--------win
                Rockies/D-Backs OVER 9.5-----lost
                Cardinals/Dodgers OVER 8.5---lost
                Twins/Indians OVER 9----------win

                I'll keep tabs on this as long as it is successful.
                "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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