Tweet
Easy winner yesterday with the Twins Team Total Over 3.5.
Baseball Play of the Day (38-39, +2.25*)
Pittsburgh Pirates +150 (Maholm/Garcia)
I played this at Betjamaica. Pinnacle and 5Dimes are offering 148, either way, I think this line may rise a little, considering the Pirates have lost 12 in a row and the White Sox are the defending WS champions. Unfortunately, I'm expecting to be busy all day.
The White Sox are 7-9 on the road against lefties this season. At night, they are even worse, 5-8. They average 5.4 runs in these games, but that is inflated by a couple very high totals when they knocked the starter out early at Cincy and Texas.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is at their very best at home against righties at night. They are 13-5 in those games, scoring 5.7 rpg.
I don't know if people realize it, but this isn't a pitching mismatch at all. Garcia and Maholm's ERAs are basically identical, but Maholm's home ERA is 1.5 runs better than Garcia's road ERA. The White Sox only have a 0.07 run advantage in the bullpen.
Thome isn't starting, and Ozuna is doubtful. Way too high a price tag here.
I will add under 9.5 in the Orioles game (with Hamels/Bedard) if the juice is reasonable.
Two small personal plays:
Cubs +119 (Bush is awful on the road, 6.48 ERA. Marmol's numbers are only slightly worse in his 3 starts - @ Min, vs. Det, @ Cin.)
Dodgers +250 (lefty-lefty matchup, Dodgers average 2.4 more rpg against LHSP than the Twins)
Baseball Play of the Day (38-39, +2.25*)
Pittsburgh Pirates +150 (Maholm/Garcia)
I played this at Betjamaica. Pinnacle and 5Dimes are offering 148, either way, I think this line may rise a little, considering the Pirates have lost 12 in a row and the White Sox are the defending WS champions. Unfortunately, I'm expecting to be busy all day.
The White Sox are 7-9 on the road against lefties this season. At night, they are even worse, 5-8. They average 5.4 runs in these games, but that is inflated by a couple very high totals when they knocked the starter out early at Cincy and Texas.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is at their very best at home against righties at night. They are 13-5 in those games, scoring 5.7 rpg.
I don't know if people realize it, but this isn't a pitching mismatch at all. Garcia and Maholm's ERAs are basically identical, but Maholm's home ERA is 1.5 runs better than Garcia's road ERA. The White Sox only have a 0.07 run advantage in the bullpen.
Thome isn't starting, and Ozuna is doubtful. Way too high a price tag here.
I will add under 9.5 in the Orioles game (with Hamels/Bedard) if the juice is reasonable.
Two small personal plays:
Cubs +119 (Bush is awful on the road, 6.48 ERA. Marmol's numbers are only slightly worse in his 3 starts - @ Min, vs. Det, @ Cin.)
Dodgers +250 (lefty-lefty matchup, Dodgers average 2.4 more rpg against LHSP than the Twins)
Comment