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**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 07:55 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds for the Texas Open this week:
11-1— Jordan Spieth
14-1— Tony Finau
15-1— Scott Scheffler
19-1— Abraham Ancer, Hideki Matsuyama
21-1— Corey Connors
30-1— Ryan Palmer

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 550,903
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Random thoughts on Opening Day

Before we start, happy birthday to my grandmother; today was her birthday. Very nice lady. Not sure April 1 is a great day for a birthday.

13) Will be fun to see fans in the stands; hopefully by the end of this season, stands will be full again, but for now, hearing real people cheer will be enough. Cardboard cutouts are cool, but they don’t make any noise.

For the record, the best cardboard cutout last year was the one in Kansas City of Bernie Lomax, the main character from the Weekend at Bernie’s movies.

12) Houston Astros made the expanded playoffs LY, despite a 29-31 record; how will they bounce back this year? They won the 2017 World Series, lost the ’19 Series in seven games; this year they’ll be without Verlander (hurt), Springer (free agent to Toronto).

Last year, Jose Altuve hit .219 in the regular season, then hit 18-48 (.375) in playoffs, so we’ll see what this year brings.

11) Baseball has done a very smart thing, letting players watch video of their at-bats on iPads during the game. Players couldn’t do that last year- from what you hear on TV, it hampered some hitters, who are creatures of habit. Baseball wants more offense, right?

10) Los Angeles Dodgers are loaded; they won World Series LY for first time since 1988, and appear to be headed that way again this year, especially after adding pitching ace Trevor Bauer as a free agent.

Their TV guys have been fairly cocky this spring; on how many teams would David Price or Tony Gonsolin not be in the starting rotation?

9) Seattle and the Angels are two teams that will apparently use 6-man pitching rotations this season, somehow new to MLB. Teams in Japan do this; starters generally pitch once a week.

Teams are guarding against ramping up a pitcher’s innings too much from one year to the next; for instance, Seattle’s Marco Gonzales threw 69.1 IP LY; he threw 203 the year before. Doubtful they want him ramping back up to 203 until next season.

8) Steve Cohen is the new owner of the Mets; supposedly, Bobby Axelrod on Showtime’s Billions was modeled after Cohen, a wildly successful hedge fund trader. In other words, he is really, really rich.

Cohen’s Mets offered newly-acquired SS Francisco Lindor $320M for 10 years; Lindor’s people are asking for 12 years, $385M. We’ll see how that works out.

LATE UPDATE: Here’s how it worked out: Lindor signed a 10-year deal for $341M Wednesday night.

7) Umpire Ángel Hernández lost his lawsuit against MLB alleging racial discrimination; hired as a big league umpire in 1993, the Cuban-born Hernandez alleged he was discriminated against because he had not been assigned to the World Series since 2005 and had been passed over for crew chief.

From the judge who decided the case:
“The explicit reason MLB offers — that according to (Joe) Torre, Hernández ‘has not demonstrated the leadership ability and situation-management skills in critical high-pressure roles on a consistent basis’ — is presented in clear and specific terms.”

In other words, Hernandez should be glad he has a lucrative job that he doesn’t do very well.

6) Colorado Rockies traded star 3B Nolan Arenado to St Louis, and with SS Trevor Story headed for free agency, he could be the next to leave Denver, which can’t make fans in Denver happy.

Are the Rockies headed for a total rebuild? Colorado won 87-91 games in 2017/’18, but now they’re looking like a doormat.

5) Can Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge stay healthy this season?
— Last two years, Stanton played a total of 41 regular season games.
— Last three years, Judge played 112-102-28 games.
— Stanton went 8-26 with six homers in seven playoff games LY; they need him for six months, not seven games.

4) Angels have lot of hitting, lot of star power; Trout, Pujols, Rendon, Ohtani, but pitching is important in baseball and the Angels don’t have much of that.

In 12 games as a major league pitcher, Ohtani has given up 26 runs in 53.1 IP; there is very little evidence that he’ll be a good major league pitcher.

3) Lot of hype around the Padres/White Sox; there is no doubt that 76-year Tony LaRussa’s return to the dugout will be fascinating to follow in Chicago.

LaRussa hasn’t managed since 2011; he’s won three World Series as a skipper, but the world is a different place than it was 10 years ago. He did a dugout interview during a spring training game a few days ago and it…….um…….didn’t go well.

Random LaRussa trivia; he pinch-hit for the A’s in their first-ever home game in Oakland, way back in 1968.

2) Baseball needs the universal DH, for a few reasons:
— They want more scoring; pitchers can’t hit
— They want more balls in play; DH’s put balls in play
— Pitchers get hurt hitting/running the bases. Not good.

1) I’ll be looking at how the new experimental rules work once the minor leagues get rolling in May; I like the anti-shifting rules, the pitch-clock thing isn’t necessary. The 3-batter minimum for relievers is a great rule.

I can’t stand the extra inning rules or 7-inning doubleheaders. Media guys like shorter extra innings, since it makes their job easier, but to me it cheapens the game.

As for the automated strike zone, no thank you!!! Just let umpires do their jobs, and hire better umpires than Angel Hernandez.

**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 07:57 AM

529PHILADELPHIA -530 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) vs. winning teams in the current season.

531WASHINGTON -532 DETROIT
DETROIT is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

531WASHINGTON -532 DETROIT
Dwane Casey is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more (Coach of DETROIT)

533CHARLOTTE -534 BROOKLYN
BROOKLYN is 24-9 ATS (14.1 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

535GOLDEN STATE -536 MIAMI
GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

539ATLANTA -540 SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days in the current season.

541DENVER -542 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 08:01 AM

NBA

Thursday, April 1

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Trend Report
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Philadelphia @ Cleveland
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home

Washington @ Detroit
Washington
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games

Charlotte @ Brooklyn
Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games on the road
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Brooklyn's last 8 games at home

Golden State @ Miami
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State

Orlando @ New Orleans
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Atlanta @ San Antonio
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
San Antonio
San Antonio is 21-1 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Atlanta
San Antonio is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing Atlanta

Denver @ LA Clippers
Denver
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Clippers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

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**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 10:47 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, April 1

**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 11:57 AM

**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 11:59 AM

Hoop Trends for Thursday April 1
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Denver at L.A. Clippers (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Clippers are 10-0 ATS (11.85 ppg) as a favorite after they scored at least 25 points fewer last game than the game before.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Charlotte at Brooklyn (7:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Hornets are 0-14 ATS (-11.61 ppg) as a road dog coming off a game as a favorite.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Philadelphia at Cleveland (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The 76ers are 11-0 OU (13.68 ppg) as a favorite coming off a loss as a road dog.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Golden State at Miami (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Warriors are 0-13-1 OU (-20.36 ppg) as a dog with rest off a game as a dog in which they had less than 10% of their points from free throws.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/1

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/1

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