Saturday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/27

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Saturday, March 27

Good Luck on day #86 of 2021!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Mind is all that counts. You can be whatever you make up your mind to be.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Active leaders in career home runs:
662— Albert Pujols
487— Miguel Cabrera
424— Edwin Encarnación
417— Nelson Cruz
352— Ryan Braun
334— Robinson Cano

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 545,357
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


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Armadillo: Saturday's Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) You know your life is good when someone offers you $120 million for six years, and you turn them down. Thats what Astros’ SS Carlos Correa did this week. No thanks to $120M.

Correa is represented by the William Morris Agency; they must be pretty sure Correa will get more than $20M a year down the road, or maybe they wanted opt-outs in the middle, or who knows? Correa will make $11,700,000 this year, is a free agent next winter.

12) As recently as 2010, starting pitchers in the major leagues threw 100+ pitches in 50% of their games, so half the time the starter threw 100+ pitches.

Last year? Starters threw 100+ pitches 10% of the time, as analytics people hammer home the idea that facing hitters a third time in a game is a bad thing.

11) An “immaculate inning” is when a pitcher strikes out the side on nine pitches; doesn’t happen much. 94 major league pitchers have done it.

Nolan Ryan is the only pitcher ever to throw an immaculate inning in both leagues.

10) Pitchers Max Fried (Braves), Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) and Lucas Giolito (White Sox) all went to the same high school, Harvard-Westlake in Los Angeles. They were all on the baseball team at the same time; they all have the same agent and they’ll all start on Opening Day this season.

Apparently it cost $42,000 a year to go Harvard-Westlake; 42 grand a year for freakin’ high school. Yikes.

9) Heard this stat again on TV the other night, it is staggering; Minnesota Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games. They’ve had good teams; losing 18 playoff games in a row is staggering.

8) NBA is going to have a play-in tournament in mid-May, just before their playoffs start:
— #7 and #8-seeds will play one game, winner gets #7-seed in playoffs.
— #9 and #10-seeds will play one game, loser gets eliminated.
— Winner of the second game plays the loser of the first game, winner gets the #8-seed.

7) There were 40 players traded at the NBA trading deadline Wednesday, the most of any deadline in the last 30 years.

6) Saw this note several times Wednesday and thought it was a joke; about the 4th time I saw it posted, I realized it was true- over the next seven NBA drafts, Oklahoma City Thunder has 34 draft choices, 17 in the first round, 17 in the second.

NBA rosters are only 15 players; what are they going to do with all that draft capital? They could field two teams. Will be interesting to see what they do from here on in.

5) Seattle Seahawks have only 3 picks in this year’s draft; Philadelphia has 11.

4) Miami Dolphins were busy Friday, they traded the #3 pick in this draft to the 49ers for the #12 pick and other stuff, then traded the #12 pick and other stuff to the Eagles for the #6 pick.

Miami has five picks in the first three rounds of next month’s draft; the main question though, isn’t draft picks, it is whether Tua Tagovailoa is good enough to be their franchise quarterback.

3) AL East rivals New York-Boston will play six series this season, five of them weekend series. Of the five Sunday games, four of them are on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.

Not much original thinking there. How about promoting some other teams, or showing more west coast teams. Show the Angels/Padres more, or Houston- they have good players. People would like to see Trout, Tatis or Altuve more.

2) College basketball stuff:
Shaka Smart bolts Texas for Marquette. Smart was 109-86 at Texas, 51-56 in regular season conference games, 0-3 in NCAA Tournament games.

His Longhorns won the Big X tournament this year, but the first round loss to Abilene Christian ended the season on a dark note. Since making the Final Four at VCU in 2014, Smart is 2-7 in NCAA Tournament games. Right or wrong, that is what people remember.

Is Marquette a better job than Texas? Texas hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2008, Marquette made it in three of last four years under Buzz Williams (2011-13) but that was a while ago. Hiring Steve Wojciechowski was a blunder; Smart is an upgrade over him.

Big X is a tough league; been ranked 1st or 2nd the last eight seasons. Big East has usually been 3rd during that time. We’ll see how things turn out, but Smart’s seat was getting hot in Austin, and now he gets a fresh start at Marquette.

1) Random movie/TV trivia: Actress Mariska Hargitay, the star of Law and Order SVU, is the daughter of the famous actress Jayne Mansfield. Didn’t know that.

[Udog]

621VILLANOVA -622 BAYLOR
BAYLOR is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ORAL ROBERTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots in the current season.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ARKANSAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the current season.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ORAL ROBERTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games in the current season.

625OREGON ST -626 LOYOLA-IL
OREGON ST is 13-0 ATS (13 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog in the current season.

627FLORIDA ST -628 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the current season.

629MEMPHIS -630 COLORADO ST
MEMPHIS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the current season.

631MISSISSIPPI ST -632 LOUISIANA TECH
LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games in the current season.

647SYRACUSE -648 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the current season.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 27

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 27

NCAA Tournament

Saturday’s games

Villanova (5) vs Baylor (1)
Villanova (18-6)
— ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #332
— Experience: #146
— Continuity: #7
— Villanova PG Gillespie is out for year; they beat Winthrop/North Texas to get here.
— Villanova is 7-5 in last dozen games, after an 11-1 start.
— Wildcats get 37.3% of their points on arc (#39)
— Wildcats’ bench plays #300 minutes; injuries are costly.
— Since 2005, Villanova is 4-2 in Sweet 16 games.

Baylor (24-2)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #85
— Continuity: #32
— Baylor is 7-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
— Bears are shooting 41.5% on the arc (#1)
— Baylor forces turnovers 24.7% of time (#3)
— Bears are grabbing 36.7% of their missed shots (#6)
— Under Drew, Baylor is 2-2 in Sweet 16 games.

— Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.

Oral Roberts (15) vs Arkansas (3)
Oral Roberts (18-10)
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— Tempo: #46
— Experience: #250
— Continuity: #272
— Oral Roberts won its last seven games, scoring 82.7 ppg.
— ORU lost by 5 at Oklahoma State, 14 at Oklahoma, 11 at Arkansas.
— Oral Roberts is shooting 38.2% on arc (#14), 82.4% on line (#1)
— ORU is 2nd #15-seed to get this far; their bench played total of only 53:00 in their two wins last week, which were both by 3 points.
— This is Oral Roberts’ first NCAA Tournament since 2008.

Arkansas (24-6)
— ranked #15 by KenPom
— Tempo: #17
— Experience: #239
— Continuity: #339
— Arkansas won 11 of its last 12 games.
— Arkansas is 10-0 outside the SEC (non-conf schedule #274)
— Razorbacks gave up 78+ points in all six of their losses.
— Razorbacks were down 14 in first half to Colgate in 1st round, still won by 17.
— Opponents are shooting 45.9% inside arc (#38)
— Musselman is 4-3 in NCAA Tournament games.

— Oral Roberts lost 87-76 at Arkansas December 20; ORU was up 41-31 at the half.
— ORU is 2nd #15-seed to get this far; Florida Gulf Coast (+13) lost 62-50 to Florida in this round, eight years ago.

Oregon State (12) vs Loyola Chi (8)
Oregon State (19-12)
— ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #303
— Experience: #67
— Continuity: #154
— Oregon State won five in row, eight of its last nine games.
— Oregon State is getting 21.3% of its points on foul line (#44)
— Beavers are shooting 47.0% inside arc (#275)
— OSU won Pac-12 tournament for first time, after they were 5th in regular season.
— Beavers’ wins last week were their first tournament wins since 1982.

Loyola Chi (26-4)
— ranked #9 by KenPom
— Tempo: #342
— Experience: #36
— Continuity: #11
— Loyola won eight in row, 19 of last 20 games.
— Loyola is shooting 57.7% inside arc (#4).
— Ramblers are 6-3 vs top 100 teams.
— Loyola lost by 14 to Wisconsin, by hoop to Richmond, beat Ga Tech/Illinois.
— Ramblers are #2 team in country on defensive boards.
— Loyola made Final Four in 2018, its only NCAA in last 24 years.

— This is only 2nd #8-12 seed game ever in Sweet 16; 12-seed Missouri (+1) beat UCLA in 2002.
— Rhode Island (-8.5) beat 13-seed Valparaiso 74-68 in only 8-13 game, in 1998.

Syracuse (11) vs Houston (2)
Syracuse (18-9)
— ranked #37 by KenPom
— Tempo: #150
— Experience: #234
— Continuity: #67
— Syracuse won eight of their last 11 games.
— Orangemen are 5-7 vs teams in the top 50.
— Syracuse is a bottom 20 team in country on defensive boards.
— Orangemen made 29-58 on arc in their two wins last week.
— Since 2003, Syracuse is 4-4 SU in Sweet 16 games.

Houston (25-3)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #325
— Experience: #144
— Continuity: #107
— Houston has the best eFG% defense in country.
— Opponents are shooting 29.3% on arc (#12)
— Cougars won their last nine games, six of them by 24+ points.
— Houston finished last game on 13-2 run to nip Rutgers 63-60.
— Since 1997, Sampson is 2-2 in Sweet 16 games.

— Since 2012, #11-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

NIT tournament

Memphis vs Colorado State
Memphis (18-8)
— ranked #39 by KenPom
— Tempo: #48
— Experience: #323
— Continuity: #78
— Memphis won 12 of its last 15 games.
— Tigers have #5 eFG% defense in country.
— Memphis is turning ball over 22.0% of time (#316)
— Tigers are shooting only 60.9% on foul line (#341)
— Memphis is 8-3 outside the AAC (non-conf schedule #197)

Colorado State (20-6)
— ranked #60 by KenPom
— Tempo: #133
— Experience: #308
— Continuity: #36
— Rams won eight of their last ten games.
— Colorado State is shooting 55.6% inside arc (#12).
— Colorado State is shooting 79.5% on foul line (#7)
— 43.3% of shots they take are 3’s (#43)
— Rams are 5-1 outside Mountain West, losing at Saint Mary’s.

Louisiana Tech vs Mississippi State
Louisiana Tech (23-7)
— ranked #76 by KenPom
— Tempo: #119
— Experience: #61
— Continuity: #116
— Bulldogs won seven of their last eight D-I games.
— Louisiana Tech has three senior starters.
— Bulldogs have the #11 eFG% defense- they’re #34 on defensive boards.
— Tech lost at LSU, beat Ole Miss, their two SEC games this year.
— Tech was held to 55-48 points in last two losses.

Mississippi State (17-14)
— ranked #77 by KenPom
— Tempo: #301
— Experience: #313
— Continuity: #253
— Bulldogs are 6-4 in their last ten games.
— Miss State is grabbing 36.2% of their missed shots (#8)
— Bulldogs have #43 eFG% defense in country.

— Tech made 10-16 on arc, won 74-67 at Miss State last season.
— Miss State beat North Texas by 6, in their one C-USA game.
— Miss State starts three sophs and a freshman; they’re using these games to help build for next season.

[Udog]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 27

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Trend Report
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Oral Roberts @ Arkansas
Oral Roberts
No trends to report
Arkansas
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oral Roberts


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