Announcement

**Udog** · 03-10-2021, 09:17 AM

Live all you can - it's a mistake not to. It doesn't so much matter what you do in particular, so long as you have your life. If you haven't had that, what have you had?

**Udog** · 03-10-2021, 09:17 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds to win the Big 14 tournament this week:
+150- Michigan
+350- Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State
+1000- Purdue
+1500- Wisconsin
+2500- Rutgers
+3500- Michigan State
+5000- Maryland, Minnesota
+6600- Indiana
+20000- Northwestern
+30000- Nebraska

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 525,117
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) Gonzaga 88, BYU 78:
— BYU led this game 53-41 at halftime.
— Gonzaga outscored BYU 18-5 on foul line.
— Gonzaga made 12-26 on arc, BYU 11-28.

One of the first questions I’ll be asking myself Sunday night, after the NCAA brackets come out, is whether Gonzaga has been tested enough this season. They haven’t won a game by single digits since December 2 vs West Virginia. The WCC isn’t as good as it usually is, and the Zags have breezed thru this season, while other leagues are way more competitive.

Baylor-Michigan-Illinois have had lot of tough games; it has to make you a better team.

12) Dallas Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott signed a 4-year, $160M deal, $123M guaranteed. By way of comparison, and without any editorial comment, here are some facts:

Prescott: 42-27 regular season record, 1-2 in playoffs
Jared Goff: 42-27 regular season record, 2-3 in playoffs, which doesn’t include his win in relief at Seattle in this year’s playoffs.

11) Interesting discussion on Mets’ TV the other day about whether a team can improve a lot on defense, without changing the players who are in the field.

Was reminiscent of Troy Aikman saying on NFL broadcasts how quarterbacks cannot learn to become more accurate passers. Aikman believes that once you get to the NFL level, you are what you are, though Buffalo Bill fans would bring up Josh Allen and dispute that.

Bottom line is, Keith Hernandez/Ron Darling didn’t paint an optimistic picture of the Mets’ defense for this season.

10) Last Friday, Troy State upset Texas-Arlington 91-86 in the Sun Belt tournament, which on the surface is no big deal, but there is an interesting back story.

From 2007-18, Scott Cross was Tex-Arlington’s coach; the last three years he was there, UTA went 72-33 overall, 37-15 in Sun Belt games. Damn good record, but they fired Cross because he didn’t win make the NCAA tournament— he made it once, in 2008, Cross’ second year there.

Since they told Cross to take a hike, Tex-Arlington is 44-47 overall, 31-26 in Sun Belt games. Not exactly an upgrade.

I’m guessing when Troy State beat UTA last week, their coach took special satisfaction in the win, seeing how that coach was Scott Cross.

9) I watched Hoosiers for the 50th or so time the other day; watching the credits at the end, they thanked the governor of Indiana, who at the time was a guy named Robert Orr.

Bobby Orr was the governor of Indiana? I thought he was a Canadian!!! (Its a joke)

8) Miami Marlins used 61 players in 60 games last year, 37 of them pitchers; their spring training must be a mess this year, trying to whittle down those 61 guys down to a roster of 26 players. Don Mattingly did a great job in a weird season last year; choosing the right guys for a 162-game season is a much different dilemma.

7) Angels’ broadcaster Jose Mota played one of the Detroit Tigers in the 1999 baseball movie, For Love of the Game, with Kevin Costner. Mota’s character makes a great play to preserve Billy Chapel’s perfect game; he and Mark Gubicza were talking about it on the Angels’ broadcast the other night. Mota said it was an easier play to make, since he read the script and knew where the ball was going to be hit.

Looking at the Angels’ website, they haven’t filled Victor Rojas’ play-by-play slot yet; they should choose Mota. He and Gubicza have a good chemistry.

6) Last season, 12 major league umpires opted out of working, because of COVID; at least three of them are back this year. The Athletic did an interesting article, talking to Phil Cuzzi, Gerry Davis and Brian Gorman about coming back to work and sitting out last year.

Davis has umpired 4.957 major league games; only three umps have gotten to 5,000 games, so that’ll be a big deal when Davis gets to 5,000.

Umpire Brian Gorman’s late wife was a Los Angeles Times staff photographer and picture editor who was a two-time recipient of the Pulitzer Prize.

5) Today is Wednesday of Championship Week, and there are already 300+ names in the college basketball transfer portal. People who sell game programs are going to clean up next year. Guys who write Blue Ribbon Yearbook are going to get headaches. Lot of kids jumping from team-to-team.

4) Colorado Rockies’ 1B CJ Cron is playing for his fifth team in the last five years; he started his career playing four years for the Angels, then went to Tampa Bay in 2018, Minnesota the next year, Detroit last year, and now Colorado.

He hit 55 homers in 2018-19; curious to see how many at-bats he gets this season.

3) NHL will be back on ESPN starting next season; curious to see if the league gets its own daily half-hour show, like the NBA has now. ESPN had forgotten about hockey since they last showed games in 2004. Good news for Steve Levy and Berry Melrose.

2) Turned on the TV when I woke up the other day, and all they’re talking about it is the royal family in England. I don’t give a rat’s ass about the royal family. Seriously, don’t want to hear one word about them, and I was an avid fan of Suits on USA Network, so I’m familiar with Meghan Markle’s work. She married a prince, good for her. Don’t want to hear about it.

Only Royals I care about are Whit Merrifield and Carlos Santana, Kansas City Royals.

1) I was fiddling around on the Interweb at 4am the other night when it dawned on me that in most years, this is my favorite two weeks of the whole year, conference tournaments this week, the NCAA’s next week. Watching basketball and eating pizza, good times.

The last year has seemed 10 years long; things are slowly getting better— several of my friends have gotten their vaccines and that’s a good thing. Watching basketball all week will also be a good thing— we didn’t get to do that last year. Getting back to normal will be the best thing.

**Udog** · 03-10-2021, 09:24 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 10

**Udog** · 03-10-2021, 09:26 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 10

**Udog** · 03-10-2021, 09:28 AM

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 10

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Trend Report
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**Udog** · 03-10-2021, 09:30 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 10

ACC tournament (@ Greensboro)
NC State vs Syracuse
NC State (13-9, 9-8)
— ranked #65 by KenPom
— Tempo: #180
— Experience: #218
— Continuity: #126
— NC State won its last five games.
— Wolfpack are forcing turnovers 22.3% of time (#32)
— Last four games, NC State gave up 63.5 ppg.
— Last six years, Wolfpack is 4-5 in ACC tournament.

Syracuse (15-8, 9-7)
— ranked #53 by KenPom
— Tempo: #133
— Experience: #233
— Continuity: #71
— Syracuse won five of its last seven games.
— In their last six losses, Syracuse allowed 78+ points- they’re 13-2 allowing less than 78 points.
— Syracuse is #334 in country on the defensive boards.
— In seven years in the ACC, Syracuse is 3-5 in this event.

— Syracuse beat NC State twice this year, 76-73/77-68.
— Teams split ten meetings as ACC rivals.

Miami vs Clemson
Miami (9-16, 5-15)
— ranked #137 by KenPom
— Tempo: #196
— Experience: #180
— Continuity: #232
— Miami won its last two games, after a 1-10 skid.
— ’canes are shooting 29.2% on arc (#330), have #299 eFG%.
— Miami played two subs Tuesday; one for 11:00, one for 8:00.
— Miami went W-L in 5 of last 7 ACC tournaments, lost in first round other two years.

Clemson (16-6, 10-6)
— ranked #39 by KenPom
— Tempo: #337
— Experience: #168
— Continuity: #97
— Clemson won six of its last seven games.
— Tigers are forcing turnovers 21.6% of time (#49)
— Clemson gets 37.6% of its points on arc (#34)
— Last five years, Clemson is 2-5 in ACC tourney.

— Clemson beat Miami twice this year, 66-65/65-58
— Tigers are 6-4 in last ten series games; they beat Miami 69-64 in LY’s tournament.

Duke vs Louisville
Duke (12-11, 10-9)
— ranked #41 by KenPom
— Tempo: #133
— Experience: #344
— Continuity: #252
— Duke lost three of its last three games, with two losses in OT.
— Blue Devils gets only 12.9% of their points on foul line (#345)
— Duke has #255 eFG% defense in country.
— Duke had stress-free win Tuesday, no one played more than 27:00.
— Duke won two of last three ACC tourneys.

Louisville (13-6, 8-5)
— ranked #50 by KenPom
— Tempo: #293
— Experience: #333
— Continuity: #324
— Louisville is 4-5 in its last nine games.
— In their last three losses, Cardinals were held to 50-54-58 points.
— Louisville is grabbing 32.1% of their missed shots (#54)
— Last five years, Louisville is 1-4 in conference tourneys.

— Louisville beat Duke twice this year, 70-65/80-73OT
— Teams split their ten meetings as ACC rivals.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina
Notre Dame (11-14, 8-11)
— ranked #68 by KenPom
— Tempo: #228
— Experience: #45
— Continuity: #127
— Notre Dame lost four of its last six games.
— Irish are 4-13 vs teams ranked in the top 100.
— Notre Dame is shooting 37.2% on the arc (#36).
— Irish hit walk-off 3-pointer Tuesday, ending game on 17-2 run.
— Last 6+ years, Notre Dame is 11-4 in ACC tourney

North Carolina (16-9, 10-6)
— ranked #169 by KenPom
— Tempo: #240
— Experience: #204
— Continuity: #281
— Tar Heels are 5-4 in their last nine games.
— Carolina has #244 eFG%, is turning ball over 21.1% of time (#280)
— UNC is grabbing 40.6% of its missed shots (#1)
— Tar Heels won their first game in ACC tourney the last seven years.

— Carolina won six of last seven series games.

Big X tournament (Kansas City)
Kansas State vs TCU
Kansas State (8-19, 4-14)
— ranked #183 by KenPom
— Tempo: #309
— Experience: #335
— Continuity: #285
— K-State won three of its last four games, after an 0-13 stretch.
— Wildcats turn ball over 22.3% of time (#291), shoot 29.5% on arc (#321)
— In their last five wins, K-State allowed 58 or less points.
— K-State won its first Big X tourney game the last five years.

TCU (12-13, 5-11)
— ranked #127 by KenPom
— Tempo: #251
— Experience: #318
— Continuity: #159
— TCU lost six of its last seven games.
— Horned Frogs turn ball over 20.8% of time (#269)
— TCU started season 9-2; since then, not so much.
— Last six years, TCU is 5-6 in Big X tournament.

— Wildcats beat TCU in last three Big X tournaments.
— These teams split a pair this year; road team won both games.
— K-State won eight of last 12 series games.

Iowa State vs Oklahoma
Iowa State (2-21, 0-18)
— ranked #179 by KenPom
— Tempo: #94
— Experience: #139
— Continuity: #227
— Iowa State has two wins, over teams #350/#276
— Cyclones lost last 17 games; their last win was December 20.
— Three of their last five losses were by 5 or fewer points.
— Last seven years, Iowa State won Big X tourney four times, lost in first round the other three.

Oklahoma (14-9, 9-8)
— ranked #38 by KenPom
— Tempo: #221
— Experience: #61
— Continuity: #51
— Oklahoma lost its last four games, by 5-4-4-4 points.
— Opponents are shooting 45.8% inside arc (#39)
— 10 of their last 11 games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
— You’re reading ***************.com.
— Last four years, Sooners are 0-3 in Big X tourney, losing by 1-19-11 points.

— Oklahoma beat Iowa State twice this year, 79-72/66-56
— Cyclones are still 6-4 in last ten series games.

Big East tournament (@ New York City)
Marquette vs Georgetown
Marquette (13-13, 8-11)
— ranked #74 by KenPom
— Tempo: #219
— Experience: #183
— Continuity: #178
— Marquette won four of its last five games.
— Golden Eagles are shooting 45.7% inside arc (#35)
— Marquette is turning ball over 20.8% of time (#270)
— Last six years, Marquette in 4-1 in its first Big East tourney game.

Georgetown (9-12, 7-9)
— ranked #85 by KenPom
— Tempo: #92
— Experience: #65
— Continuity: #249
— Georgetown won four of their last six games.
— Hoyas turn ball over 22.1% of time (#316), shoot 46.3% inside arc (#289)
— Georgetown is grabbing 32.1% of their missed shots (#55)
— Last 4 years, Georgetown is 0-4 in Big East tournament, losing by 1-11-16-13 points.

— Marquette won 64-60 at Georgetown January 2.
— Marquette won six of last seven series games.

Butler vs Xavier
Butler (9-14, 8-12)
— ranked #110 by KenPom
— Tempo: #316
— Experience: #194
— Continuity: #243
— Butler lost four of its last six games.
— Bulldogs have #282 eFG% (#270 inside arc, #250 on arc)
— Butler is shooting only 64.0% on foul line (#329)
— Last seven years, Butler is 1-6 in Big East tourney games.

Xavier (13-7, 6-7)
— ranked #60 by KenPom
— Tempo: #158
— Experience: #173
— Continuity: #191
— Xavier lost five of their last seven games.
— Musketeers are shooting 54.4% inside arc (#30)
— Xavier is shooting only 32.1% on arc (#253), 69.4% on line (#227)
— Xavier won first Big East tourney game six of last seven years.

— Xavier beat Butler twice this season, 68-55/63-51.
— Musketeers won six of last nine series games.

Big 14 tournament (@ Indianapolis)
Minnesota vs Northwestern
Minnesota (13-14, 6-14)
— ranked #62 by KenPom
— Tempo: #109
— Experience: #148
— Continuity: #203
— Gophers lost their last seven games.
— Minnesota is shooting 28.6% on arc (#339)
— Gophers are #312 team in country on defensive boards.
— Last 10 years, Minnesota is 6-4 in its first Big 14 tourney game.

Northwestern (9-14, 6-13)
— ranked #69 by KenPom
— Tempo: #154
— Experience: #253
— Continuity: #40
— Wildcats won their last three games, after an 0-13 skid.
— Northwestern is 5-1 vs teams ranked outside top 50.
— Wildcats get 35.3% of their points on arc (#68).
— Northwestern is 5-15 in last 20 Big 14 tourney games, 0-3 last three years, losing by 8-5-17 points.

— Northwestern won 67-59 at Minnesota on January 25.
— Gophers won four of last five series games- they beat Wildcats in LY’s Big 14 tourney.

Nebraska vs Penn State
Nebraska (7-19, 3-16)
— ranked #92 by KenPom
— Tempo: #34
— Experience: #102
— Continuity: #327
— Nebraska is making 46.7% of their shots inside arc (#277)
— Cornhuskers split their last four games, beating Minnesota/Rutgers.
— Nebraska is getting 36.3% of their points on the arc (#50)
— Last 10 years, Nebraska is 3-7 in its first Big 14 tournament game.

Penn State (10-13, 7-12)
— ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #121
— Experience: #43
— Continuity: #45
— Penn State won three of their last four games.
— Nittany Lions are shooting 45.5% inside the arc (#311)
— Penn State has #294 eFG% defense in country.
— Last six years, Penn State is 5-5 in Big 14 tourney.

— Teams split two games this year; road side won both.
— Nittany Lions won four of last six series games.

Pac-12 tournament (@ Las Vegas)
Washington State vs Arizona State
Washington State (14-12, 7-12)
— ranked #107 by KenPom
— Tempo: #207
— Experience: #329
— Continuity: #209
— Coogs split their last ten games, after an 0-6 skid.
— Wazzu is shooting 45.6% inside arc (#309)
— Wazzu turns ball over 21.4% of time (#299)
— This is Coogs’ first game in 11 days.
— Last 11 years, Coogs are 1-10 in Pac-12 tournament- they beat Colorado LY.

Arizona State (10-13, 7-10)
— ranked #116 by KenPom
— Tempo: #24
— Experience: #84
— Continuity: #138
— ASU is 6-5 in its last 11 games, after an 0-6 skid.
— Last two games, Sun Devils scored 61-59 points.
— ASU is 3-8 when it scores less than 75 points.
— Under Hurley, Sun Devils are 2-4 in Pac-12 tourney

— Wazzu lost 77-74 in OT at Arizona State February 27.
— Teams split last ten series games.

Washington vs Utah
Washington (5-20, 4-16)
— ranked #176 by KenPom
— Tempo: #72
— Experience: #123
— Continuity: #198
— Washington lost nine of their last 11 games.
— Huskies have #249 eFG% in country (#258 inside arc, #217 on arc)
— Last three games, Washington allowed 84.0 ppg.
— Last seven years, Washington is 3-7 in Pac-12 tourney.

Utah (11-12, 8-11)
— ranked #75 by KenPom
— Tempo: #223
— Experience: #285
— Continuity: #22
— Utes lost five of their last seven games.
— Utah is shooting 52.8% inside arc (#63)
— Utes are #259 on offensive boards, #260 on defensive boards.
— Last four years, Utah is 0-4 in Pac-12 tourney (40-32 in regular season)

— Teams split pair of games this year; home side won both.
— Utes won eight of last eleven series games.

California vs Stanford
California (8-19, 3-17)
— ranked #162 by KenPom
— Tempo: #321
— Experience: #95
— Continuity: #93
— Cal lost 11 of its last 12 games.
— Opponents are shooting 38.5% on arc (#333)
— Last four games, Cal scored 55.5 ppg.
— Last six years, Cal Bears are 5-5 in Pac-12 tourney.

Stanford (14-12, 10-10)
— ranked #77 by KenPom
— Tempo: #123
— Experience: #290
— Continuity: #76
— Stanford lost last four games; da Silva missed last three (check status)
— Cardinal turns ball over 21.2% of time (#284)
— Stanford has #67 eFG% defense in country.
— Last five years, Stanford is 1-4 in Pac-12 tournament.

— Stanford beat its arch-rival twice this year, 70-55/76-70
— Cardinal won six of last nine series games.

**Udog** · 03-10-2021, 09:32 AM

601SACRAMENTO ST -602 N COLORADO
SACRAMENTO ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.

603N ARIZONA -604 PORTLAND ST
PORTLAND ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

605IDAHO -606 MONTANA
IDAHO is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

607NC STATE -608 SYRACUSE
SYRACUSE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games vs. winning teams in the current season.

619SAN JOSE ST -620 WYOMING
WYOMING is 12-0 ATS (12 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

621AIR FORCE -622 UNLV
UNLV is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games in the current season.

623NEW MEXICO -624 FRESNO ST
FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

625MARQUETTE -626 GEORGETOWN
MARQUETTE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

627BUTLER -628 XAVIER
XAVIER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

629DEPAUL -630 PROVIDENCE
DEPAUL is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 in the last 3 seasons.

Announcement

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/10

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/10

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