Announcement

**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 08:50 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational:
17-2— Rory McIlroy
12-1— Viktor Hovland
13-1— Bryson DeChambeau
17-1— Tyrrell Hatton
21-1— Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im
23-1— Matthew Fitzpatrick

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 518,900
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

13) If the month of March goes anything like the Horizon League tournament, this could quite an interesting month. Here’s a summation of Tuesday’s quarterfinals:

— Milwaukee 94, Wright State 92, OT— #1-seed Raiders led by 24 with 6:26 left, but lost.
— Cleveland State 108, Fort Wayne 104, 3OT— Vikings were down 5 in second OT.
— Northern Kentucky 70, Detroit 69— Norse scored last six points of the game.
— Oakland 89, Youngstown State 83, OT— Four Oakland starters played 40:00+.

Three overtime games; the fourth game ended 70-69.

12) Villanova 72, Creighton 60— Villanova star Collin Gillespie suffered “a serious knee injury” and is likely out for the season. Huge blow for a team whose bench plays minutes #329. Not a lot of depth there.

As for Creighton, coach Greg McDermott urged his players to “stay on the plantation” in a postgame locker room talk after a 77-69 loss at Xavier Saturday. People in the Creighton program were offended by the word “plantation”

Deeply offended.

11) Oregon State 75, Utah 70— For the first time in 18 years, Beavers have won three consecutive Pac-12 road games. Picked for last in preseason polls, Oregon State is in 6th place.

10) Oregon 82, UCLA 74— Things I learned from listening to Bill Walton:
— The city of Eugene, OR was founded by a guy named Eugene Skinner
— Mr Skinner was born in Essex, NY, a long way from Oregon.
— His brother was assistant postmaster under President Andrew Johnson.

9) St John’s 81, Providence 67:
— Friars led by 11 at the half, but scored only 26 points in 2nd half.
— St John’s hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2000; they’ve only made the tournament four times since then. They probably won’t make it this year, either.

8) Northwestern 60, Maryland 55— This is NOT the way to impress the Selection Committee. Terps have a win over Illinois, one over Wisconsin and not much else. They’re 4-10 in games against teams ranked in the top 50.

7) Mississippi State 63, Texas A&M 57— Aggies didn’t play a game in February; they ended their 32-day pause here and shot 4-25 on the arc.

6) Spring training means preparing for fantasy baseball; got queasy last night when I read that over the last two years, Giancarlo Stanton has played in 41 of his team’s 226 games. Not good.

Then I remember that Stanton knocked in 13 runs in seven playoff games last year, and I feel a little better. My team needs Stanton to be healthy; can only imagine what the people who pay his $30M+ salary are thinking.

5) Astros’ starting P Framber Valdez broke the ring finger on his pitching hand when fielding a comebacker Tuesday. Valdez was 5-3, 3.57 in 10 starts LY, striking out 76 and walking 16 in a team-high 70.2 IP.

4) 76ers 131, Jazz 123, OT: Quote of the Day, part 2, from Utah star Donovan Mitchell:

“Now, I’m never ever one to blame a ref, to blame an official — I can say I could have done more — but this is getting out of hand. There have been games like this that we’ve won; there have been games like this that we’ve lost. But this whole refereeing stuff. … We’re nice, we don’t complain, like, we don’t get frustrated, we fight through things, and the fact that we continually get … screwed, in a way, by this. You know?”

3) There is going to be a lot of cost-cutting in the NFL the next few weeks, as teams try to stay below a salary cap that may be going down some this season. New Jersey Giants cut WR Golden Tate

2) Was eerie seeing Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego getting dismantled last week; lot of history in that stadium- Super Bowls, the Holy Roller play, lot of Padres/Aztecs games. Dan Fouts became famous in that stadium, and now it doesn’t exist.

1) Get well soon to Aaron Boone, who took a medical leave of absence after having surgery Wednesday to get a pacemaker. The 47-year-old Boone had open-heart surgery in 2009; he is expected to be back with the team in a few days.

In his absence, Carlos Mendoza is the interim manager.

**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 08:51 AM

551DENVER -552 INDIANA
INDIANA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

553MILWAUKEE -554 MEMPHIS
MEMPHIS are 21-5 ATS (15.5 Units) in home games off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog since 1996.

555OKLAHOMA CITY -556 SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 45-16 ATS (27.4 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent in the last 3 seasons.

557MIAMI -558 NEW ORLEANS
MIAMI is 56-37 ATS (15.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

559SACRAMENTO -560 PORTLAND
PORTLAND is 13-5 ATS (7.5 Units) when the total >=230 in the current season.

563DETROIT -564 NEW YORK
NEW YORK is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2+ road games in the current season.

565GOLDEN STATE -566 PHOENIX
GOLDEN STATE is 37-53 ATS (-21.3 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 08:53 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 4

Toronto @ Boston
Raptors (17-18)
— Toronto lost three of its last its four games.
— Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
— Last three Toronto games went over the total.
— Toronto was missing five guys for last night’s game.

Celtics (18-17)
— Boston won its last three games SU.
— Celtics are 11-5 ATS at home this season.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight Boston games.

— Celtics won four of last five series games.
— Raptors are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Boston.
— Three of last four series games went over.

LA Clippers @ Washington
Clippers (24-13)
— Clippers lost five of their last eight games overall.
— Clippers are 2-4 ATS in last six road games.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.

Wizards (13-20)
— Wizards won seven of their last ten games (8-2 ATS)
— Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
— Over is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

— Clippers won four of last five series games.
— LA is 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Washington.
— Over is 9-1 in last ten series games.

Denver @ Indiana
Nuggets (20-15)
— Denver is 8-4 in its last 12 games overall.
— Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in last five road games.
— Over is 4-2 in Denver’s last six road games.

Pacers (16-18)
— Indiana lost nine of its last 13 games.
— Pacers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
— Over is 6-1-1 in Indiana’s last eight games.

— Denver won five of last eight series games.
— Nuggets are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Indiana.
— Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Milwaukee @ Memphis
Bucks (21-14)
— Milwaukee won five of its last six games (4-2 ATS).
— Bucks are 3-5 ATS in last eight road games.
— Over is 5-3 in Milwaukee’s last eight road games

Grizzlies (16-15)
— Memphis won three of its last four games.
— Grizzlies are 7-9-1 ATS at home this season.
— Under is 7-0 in their last seven games.

— Milwaukee won six of last nine series games.
— Bucks covered three of last four visits to Memphis.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Oklahoma City @ San Antonio
Thunder (14-21)
— Thunder lost six of its last nine games.
— OKC is 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
— Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Spurs (18-13)
— San Antonio won seven of last ten games overall.
— Spurs are 3-5 ATS in their last eight home games.
— Under is 6-3-1 in Spurs’ last ten games.

— Spurs won seven of last ten series games.
— Thunder is 1-4 ATS in last five trips to San Antonio.
— Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games.

Miami @ New Orleans
Heat (17-18)
— Miami won six of seven, 10 of its last 14 games overall.
— Heat is 5-3 ATS in last eight road games.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.

Pelicans (15-20)
— New Orleans is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games overall.
— Pelicans are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games.
— Over is 19-3-2 in their last 24 games.

— Miami won four of last five series games.
— Heat covered four of last five visits to Bourbon Street.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Sacramento @ Portland
Kings (14-21)
— Sacramento is 2-10 SU/1-11 ATS in last 12 games overall.
— Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
— Over is 10-1 in Sacramento’s last 11 games.

Trailblazers (20-14)
— Portland won ten of its last fifteen games SU.
— Blazers are 7-9 ATS at home this season.
— Over is 6-3 in Portland’s last nine home games.

— Blazers won five of last seven series games.
— Kings are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Portland.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Detroit @ New York
Pistons (10-25)
— Detroit lost six of its last eight games (3-4-1 ATS last eight)
— Pistons are 5-3 ATS in last eight road games.
— Under is 6-2 in Detroit’s last eight games.

Knicks (18-18)
— New York won seven of last ten games (10-4 ATS last 14).
— Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
— Under is 4-1-2 in New York’s last seven games.

— Knicks won/covered last three series games.
— Detroit covered three of last four visits to Manhattan.
— Four of last five series games stayed under the total.

Golden State @ Phoenix
Warriors (19-17)
— Golden State split its last 10 games overall.
— Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last eight road games.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight road games.

Suns (23-11)
— Phoenix won/covered 15 of its last 18 games.
— Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last ten home games.
— Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

— Suns won four of last six series games.
— Golden State is 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Phoenix.
— Nine of last ten series games stayed under the total.

**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 08:56 AM

NBA

Thursday, March 4

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Trend Report
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Detroit @ Carolina
Detroit
Detroit is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

Winnipeg @ Montreal
Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Montreal's last 11 games

NY Rangers @ New Jersey
NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Rangers's last 7 games when playing New Jersey
NY Rangers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Jersey's last 7 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Rangers

Buffalo @ NY Islanders
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
NY Islanders is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Tampa Bay @ Chicago
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 12 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Florida @ Nashville
Florida
Florida is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing Florida
Nashville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Columbus @ Dallas
Columbus
Columbus is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
Columbus is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Columbus

Ottawa @ Calgary
Ottawa
Ottawa is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Ottawa is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
Calgary
Calgary is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Ottawa

Toronto @ Vancouver
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Vancouver's last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto

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**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 09:48 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 4

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TORONTO (17 - 18) at BOSTON (18 - 17) - 3/4/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 67-53 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (24 - 13) at WASHINGTON (13 - 20) - 3/4/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 83-60 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (20 - 15) at INDIANA (16 - 18) - 3/4/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (21 - 14) at MEMPHIS (16 - 15) - 3/4/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 302-363 ATS (-97.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 186-143 ATS (+28.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 2-2 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 2-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (14 - 21) at SAN ANTONIO (18 - 13) - 3/4/2021, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 1141-1012 ATS (+27.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 582-492 ATS (+40.8 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 101-69 ATS (+25.1 Units) in home games against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 385-305 ATS (+49.5 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 226-175 ATS (+33.5 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 459-384 ATS (+36.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 65-46 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-13 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (17 - 18) at NEW ORLEANS (15 - 20) - 3/4/2021, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS (-19.2 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (14 - 21) at PORTLAND (20 - 14) - 3/4/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
SACRAMENTO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
PORTLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (10 - 25) at NEW YORK (18 - 18) - 3/4/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (19 - 17) at PHOENIX (23 - 11) - 3/4/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
PHOENIX is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 5-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 10:43 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, March 4

**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 10:55 AM

**Udog** · 03-04-2021, 11:32 AM

Hoop Trends for Thursday March 4
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Denver at Indiana (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Pacers are 10-0 ATS (11.90 ppg) at home with no rest after playing as a road favorite.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Denver at Indiana (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Nuggets are 0-11-1 ATS (-8.88 ppg) on the road with rest when they shot better than 50 percent from the field in each of their last two games.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Golden State at Phoenix (10:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Suns are 11-0 OU (13.36 ppg) as a favorite off a win in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Sacramento at Portland (10:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Kings are 0-12 OU (-12.08 ppg) off a win as a favorite in which Buddy Hield was their high scorer.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/4

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/4

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